Royal Ascot tips: Liam Firkin's five best bets at 16-1 or bigger

Royal Ascot is fast approaching, and I have pieced together my five best bets for the meeting. I did the same for the Cheltenham Festival, which hopefully put some of you on the right path towards finding some big-priced value selections, as well as a winner thanks to Jingko Blue (advised at 20-1) winning the BetMGM Cup!

I’ll certainly be hoping to provide the same level of value with my Royal Ascot selections and, hopefully, sprinkle in an additional winner or two. Best of luck.

My best bet of the week runs on the final day, and I'm hoping it will be worth the wait, as I think a strong case can be made for last year’s third-placed horse, Ten Pounds, in the Wokingham Stakes. 

He was a real eye-catcher over a trip that looked too short in May when chasing down Washington Heights, and I thought he would have gone past that rival had he been given another 100 yards or so. 

The selection moved yards at the beginning of the season and, interestingly, the owner, Tony Ramsden (Valmont), has moved him to his brother’s training operation. I think they may have been working backwards from this race since the turn of the year. 

The five-year-old has been on the go since January, with five starts this year, and that has seen his handicap mark fall 5lb, which leaves him 3lb below the mark he raced off when finishing third in last year's contest.

That placed effort looks even more appealing when you consider that he gave 4lb to the runner-up, who he finished just a neck behind. That runner was the very progressive More Thunder, who is now rated 121 and was recently seen chasing home Notable Speech in the BOYLE Sports Lockinge Stakes. 

It was a much-improved performance from Ten Pounds at Carlisle and, interestingly, the tongue tie was removed in favour of cheekpieces. That may remain the case at the Royal meeting, but he clearly returned to form, is now sitting on a very workable mark, and has shown he can handle both the occasion and the track at Ascot. 

There is a lot to like about his chances here and, although this is an unbelievably competitive race, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him battling out the finish again. He's my nap of the week at the 16-1 on offer.

My second selection comes with some jeopardy, as he is teetering on the edge of whether he will get into the race, based on his official rating. 

The Royal Hunt Cup is already a tricky enough puzzle to decipher, without the added headache of your fancy being on the cut-off line. Therefore, I would suggest patience may be key with Tribal Chief, and potentially postponing any financial outlay until after declarations, given that 47 runners who remain entered currently hold higher official ratings. 

Should you wish to move ahead prior to declarations, then I think the 16-1 available represents decent value. 

He was last seen over a furlong shorter at Ascot in the Victoria Cup, and that proved to be a good run, given the circumstances. He was slowly away from the stalls and had to settle towards the rear among the near-side group of runners, with Billy Loughnane forced to sit and suffer before a gap finally appeared, and he could be asked for maximum effort.

He stayed on well, but those rivals who had secured more prominent positions had already gained first run on him, and it all happened too late. 

That was over 7f, though, and a return to a mile here could see him to much better effect. Down towards the bottom of the weights, he is one I’d want onside. 

In the Kensington Palace Stakes, I think Cheshire Dancer provides a very interesting betting proposition at a massive price of 50-1, especially given her record at this track, which reads 431.

Purely on official ratings, you could argue she should be much shorter in the market, as the form of her Group Three victory in the Valiant Stakes reads well, given she gave weight-for-age allowances to the second, third and fifth. Two of that trio are now rated 102 and 103, while others further down the field, such as Royal Dress, are still rated as high as 106. 

A couple of negatives would be that she holds multiple entries on June 17, with the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes also an option, and she hasn’t shown the same level of form since winning at this track last year. 

However, at a massive each-way price, it could be the case that she has been primed specifically for this meeting. At the time of writing, Hugo Palmer has trained six winners from 33 runners in the past fortnight, with a further six hitting the frame, and what may add further encouragement for an improved performance is how profitable Palmer has historically been during June. The figures below show the profit achieved to £1 level stakes at SP: 

June 2018 = +£71.29

June 2024 = +£35.37

June 2011 = +£15.73

June 2013 = +£14.00

June 2015 = +£11.36

June 2012 = +£11.00

June 2026 = +£5.00 

Despite the double entry, her handler has said on record that this is her main target, and I think she is well worth a play, with the drop back in trip plus return to Ascot being two factors that could see her bounce back.

In recent years, the Queen Mary Stakes has provided an opportunity to find value from an overlooked improver, and I’m hoping I’ve landed on one here in the shape of Dee’s Funny Girl. 

Four of the past ten winners have been sent off at prices of 9-1, 18-1, 22-1 and 25-1, and this filly, who is due to go through the Goffs sale prior to Royal Ascot, was incredibly green and displayed plenty of inexperience on her first start at Thirsk, yet still managed to win with complete ease. 

She wandered all over the track and, to my eye, suggested there could be plenty more to come after scoring in that maiden. 

The form of the race also provides some substance, with the fourth-placed runner having since gone on to win a Class 2 maiden at Musselburgh. The runner-up also returned to the same venue two starts later to win a Class 2 selling stakes race by almost a length. 

It will be very interesting to see who puts their hand into their pocket to purchase her prior to Royal Ascot and, in the meantime, I’d encourage anyone to go back and watch her maiden success (watch above). 

Carmers has already taken the scalps of Scandinavia and Rahiebb, who are the front two in this market, and off the back of his Listed success at Down Royal when stepped up to two miles, he may be overlooked once again at tasty odds of 25-1. 

The Melbourne Cup appears to be the ultimate aim this season for trainer Paddy Twomey, and you could make the argument that some of the market principals will be seen to much better effect over this trip than they were when beaten in the Queen’s Vase last year. 

However, given how Carmers went about his work over the 2m trip, I believe he remains open to further improvement himself, and his trainer did not shy away from the prospect of him lining up at the Royal meeting: 

“The Gold Cup will suit him well, and this was a good step towards him going there. The quick ground tonight was important to him. All roads lead to Ascot. He’s beaten Scandinavia before, and when you have a horse that good and they go down to the start against eight runners, you’ve got a one-in-eight chance, so you’ve got to take it.” 

With experience of winning at this meeting in 2025 and his current available price, Carmers rounds off my fifth and final selection for the 2026 Royal Ascot meeting.