Road To Cheltenham: watch out for The Real Whacker

This is the fourth column from the frenetic Christmas and New Year period, covering what’s happened in the chasing and novice chasing divisions since 30 December.

You can find links to my previous yuletide columns here:

Later this week, the usual column returns with a round-up of the novice and juvenile hurdling action from this entire period, including this weekend’s important developments.

Minella Indo successfully channelled Al Boum Photo by making a winning return in the Grade Three Savills New Year’s Day Chase last Sunday. Unlike that dual Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, however, it wasn’t a deferential cavalcade but a scramble – courtesy of Stattler.

Willie Mullins seems to be under contract to provide at least half of the field. This year, he saddled three of the five. For those intent on graded labels rather than intrinsic competitiveness, it’s worth noting the only occasion in the past four years this hasn’t been the case was back in 2019 for the first of Al Boum Photo’s four wins at Tramore – when it was still a Listed event rather than a Grade Three, and he faced a bountiful six rivals, four of whom were rated within 7lb of him.

The following year, he beat three opponents – two of them stablemates and none rated within 17lb. In 2021, its first year of upgrade, it was exactly the same story bar for there being four opponents and none within 19lb. Last year, Mullins provided all four runners, each rated at least 13lb inferior – and one of whom, Burrows Saint, really should have given a diminished Al Boum Photo more of a fright than a respectful procession permitted.

Going into last Sunday, Minella Indo was rated 168 and Stattler, on his first start outside of novice company, 158. However, the latter also conceded 8lb to his elder rival, who’d been winless in a largely troubled season in 2021/22 and pulled up at Punchestown on his final start (with a first-time tongue-tie, unrepeated here). He nonetheless performed creditably when second in the Gold Cup.

Mullins also enlisted El Barra and Cilaos Emery, who undertook the roles of Brahma Bull in 2020 and 2021 by respectively falling three out and forming a blundering part of the dutiful cortege. They had between 15lb and 18lb to find on official ratings with Minella Indo and were ridden defensively, albeit likely non-stayer Cilaos Emery gave little option after blundering at the first.

50/1 outsider Roi Mage, ranked 19lb inferior, actively engaged in proceedings by leading narrowly until just before the second last and jumping soundly, often on Minella Indo’s inner. He was justly rewarded with third-place prize money but a 1lb rise for his well-ridden efforts seems a tad literal.

Rachael Blackmore got sound-jumping Minella Indo rolling long before the penultimate flight, her track position and proactive tactics critically gaining first run against Stattler on an unsuitably turning track for her mount. The latter had rustily ballooned the first, spent too much time in the air on other occasions, and jumped out to his left four out. Inevitably, given the match set-up and track topography, the race developed into a sprint.

Minella Indo got away from Stattler on landing two out but Paul Townend galvanised his mount to rise for the last only a half-length down. Minella Indo got in close but was still quicker into stride than Stattler, who landed a shade unbalanced. He responded well to pressure, however, and drew upsides, losing out by a neck on a head-bobber to the finish. Neither horse would have been best suited by such a relative speed test.

A heartfelt reception ensued for Blackmore, winning trainer Henry de Bromhead, his family and team, which the trainer spoke about with understandable emotion afterwards. Minella Indo had earlier received, and deserved, several affectionate pats from Blackmore after they drummed past the line together, defying a two-years-younger and upwardly mobile rival.

De Bromhead is minded to go straight to the Gold Cup, which would be the least number of starts Minella Indo has enjoyed prior to invariably performing well at the Festival. He had two outings prior to winning both the 2019 Albert Bartlett and finishing second to Champ (after doing too much in a duel with Allaho) in the 2020 then-RSA (now Brown Advisory). Ahead of his 2021 Gold Cup success, he had four runs and the same number last term.

This success proves there’s plenty of fight left in him, aged ten, and if he does go straight to Cheltenham, it may be perceived he arrives in better heart than last season. However, even if this is a more considered campaign than last season’s ambitious-cum-reactive one, a narrow defeat of Stattler in receipt of that much weight is qualitatively no more substantial than his Irish Gold Cup second to Conflated last season.

Stattler has been raised 5lb for this defeat – his first over fences – by Ireland’s official handicapper and Mullins should be pleased with such an encouraging reappearance, even if he is wonders what might have happened had Minella Indo not gained first run. He’s been entered in both the Ryanair and Gold Cup, but odds of 10/1 for the latter – as compared with 20/1 for the winner – is unappealing in such a fiercely competitive year.

De Bromhead also gave a further update on A Plus Tard, whom he withdrew on veterinary advice after the Boodles Gold Cup titleholder banged a joint on the morning of Leopardstown’s Savills Chase four days earlier.

“The swelling around his joint gave us a fright on the day,” he reported. “It was actually slightly worse the next day but it’s definitely improving now. His x-rays and everything were clean. We’ve got a couple more tests to run but his leg felt much better today, so hopefully we’re over the worst of it.”

Asked by Racing TV presenter Gary O’Brien whether a prep-run before Cheltenham would be important, de Bromhead said: “That’s a good question. I don’t know. We were able to get him spot on for Haydock [first time out] last year, so we’ll see. I don’t know if I want to empty him out on real soft ground. Probably his only option is the Irish Gold Cup. Sometimes you get pushed into things and it works out favourably for you, so we’ll get him right and then see what everyone thinks.”

As you might expect of the Gold Cup winner facing a clutch of second-season chasers as his main rivals, A Plus Tard boasts the best form from the past calendar year. However, that success is now almost ten months old, other horses have upgraded their form since, he has flopped at Haydock due to sickness of some sort, and he’s since missed an engagement for another reason. That’s quite a long list of cons.

In Wednesday’s Daily Mirror, David Yates quoted owner Andy Edwards saying that L’Homme Pressé had returned “stiff and sore” from his final-fence unseat in the King George due to finding the ground as “miles too quick”. “He’s having a couple of weeks just freshening up,” Edwards added. “We will just let him come back to himself and he will tell us when he is ready to go next time.”

Edwards fairly described Kempton’s ground as good-to-soft, despite its official description of ‘soft’, and yet his horse’s splendid Rehearsal Chase success came on good ground (on times; officially good-to-soft) and both his Sandown and Ascot wins last term were on good-to-soft (on times), so I’m mildly baffled by this interpretation of latest events.

L’Homme Pressé’s Kempton run was, at a minimum, as good as his previous career-best at Newcastle – if not slightly better. I will wait for more news from trainer Venetia Williams before extrapolating on the impact of this development.

At Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day, Scarlet And Dove comprehensively reversed her Clonmel defeat by Dolcita, who had narrowly claimed front-running and race-fit mare Ballyshannon Rose for victory on that occasion. In the John & Chich Fowler Memorial EBF Mares’ Chase, the winner was conceding just 2lb to Dolcita as opposed to the 11lb disparity when they met in November.

Scarlet And Dove made one obligatory error but her jumping seems to have improved overall this season and, form-wise, she was back to her best here. Both she and Dolcita were going well two out, split across almost the width of the track with Bryan Cooper keeping towards the stands’ side on the winner and Danny Mullins hard on the inner with the runner-up. Ballyshannon Rose, having jumped less fluently on the lead than last time, was soon outpaced.

Scarlet And Dove had slightly extended her advantage over Dolcita at the final fence, where she got in close but away from it quickly, and her near-five-length success was ultimately comfortable. Only beaten half a length by Elimay in last season’s Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase at the Festival, she is a major player in March and 7/1 is a fair price.

The Real Whacker impressed, both visually and on the clock, when winning the Grade Two Dipper Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day. As mentioned in the latest Road To Cheltenham show, I’ve added him to this column’s ante-post portfolio at 12/1.

Sam Twiston-Davies made all on the winner, who jumped surefootedly and held a decisive lead by the second. His pursuers had closed up by the fifth but he continued out in front – in close at the water, asked at the tenth and exuberant at the seventh and eleventh.

Monmiral, the 13/8 favourite not seen since chasing home Jonbon over two miles at Warwick in mid-November, was nudged along approaching the twelfth to make inroads on the leader. That meant he was on the stretch and not fluent when Harry Cobden asked long four out. At the same fence further back in the five-strong field - having lost his position at the tenth - Beauport made the second of three mistakes, and Harper’s Brook went out to his right.

The Real Whacker was beautiful three out, whereas eventual third Thunder Rock jumped right and again landed in a heap after a series of scrappy, slowly-back-in-stride jumps. Turning into the straight, both the winner and chasing runner-up Monmiral were inclined to hang left with the course dolled out from the inside line, the latter more markedly.

But The Real Whacker held a decisive advantage, which he extended and then maintained via two sound jumps at the final obstacles. Thunder Rock rallied strongly over the same stretch of ground, coming home particularly well compared with Monmiral after the last and failing to grab second by a mere head.

Yet Thunder Rock’s jumping couldn’t deal with the pace set by The Real Whacker and he shapes as though a step up in trip would help him, a move his pedigree also supports.

I have a lot of time for Monmiral and remain convinced, as does his trainer Paul Nicholls, that he has a big future as a chaser. However, he still looks a shade weak and raw at the age of just six at present. The curl of his knee also perhaps suggests that not only a quick surface but also an undulating track, such as Cheltenham, might not suit him ideally.

“It was a decent run,” said Nicholls. “He’s still a big baby and I still think he’s quite weak. He’ll want three miles in time but until he has the strength to get the trip, we’ll be running as we are. I’m pleased with him. He’ll keep progressing but he needs to mature a little bit.

“I’ve not made a plan for him yet. I might try to find a beginners’ chase next to try to get his head in front but, saying that, we could aim him high then try to win something as a novice next season.

“Clan Des Obeaux ran here as a four and five-year-old and ran well but just didn't get home. Suddenly, when he was six and got that strength, he took his form to another level. I think Monmiral is the same. He’s nowhere near the finished article and just needs time.”

Unlike when The Real Whacker won over three miles on Cheltenham’s Old Course in November when his jumping took a while to warm up, here he was on point from the outset. He also impressed in comparison with Midnight River in the subsequent course-and-distance handicap, carrying 1lb more and clocking a significantly better overall time that was only partly by dint of the later race going too hard just before halfway.

Winning trainer Patrick Neville, formerly based in Ireland before joining Ann Duffield as assistant and then branching out in his own right from their joint base in Leyburn, North Yorkshire, is rightly thinking big.

“I was thinking in my head that The Real Whacker had improved for his last run and I knew he had improved at home,” he told the Racing Post afterwards. “I took my time with him and I saw this race and said we will go for it and make it a test of jumping.

“Looking at Monmiral you had to respect him as he is a Grade One winner, but this horse is progressing and is on the up. Hopefully [The Real Whacker] will be a Grade One winner soon. We will come back for the Festival and enter him in a couple of them. We might even go for the Gold Cup!”

True to Neville’s word, The Real Whacker was entered in the Gold Cup – the only novice among the 27 names – but I would hope and expect him to target the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase. Given he’s only seven years of age, there seems no point in pressing fast-forward on his career – in any season, let alone one in which Cheltenham’s main event is as fiercely competitive as this.

It will be interesting to see what the British Horseracing Authority’s official handicapper makes of this performance. Timeform went with 151p, which seems conservative alongside a time figure of 153, and Racing Post Ratings have him on 160. If it’s something like mid-ish 150s, that would already be more than good enough to win more than most renewals of the Brown Advisory.

For context when Michael Harris’s actual performance figure is published on Tuesday, since 2002 Monkfish (164) is the only Brown Advisory winner to be officially rated 160 or above going into the Festival. L’Homme Pressé was 159, Presenting Percy 158, Don Poli 156, Topofthegame and Cooldine 155, Might Bite 154 (his ripping-apart of the Kauto Star, only to fall at the last, underestimated), Champ 153, Weapon’s Amnesty 152 and Bobs Worth 151. Stand by!

That same day, James Du Berlais set foot on a racecourse for the first time in 612 days when chasing home stablemate Klassical Dream in the Grade One Champion Stayers’ hurdle at the Punchestown Festival.

This French recruit, following a successful career in his homeland over hurdles, had previously made his debut for Willie Mullins in the 2021 Champion Hurdle, finishing 32 long lengths behind Honeysuckle.

At Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day, he started off his chasing campaign and, as Daryl Jacob said when standing in for Ruby Walsh on Road To Cheltenham last Thursday, he was keen to get on with things.

Throwing his head about and on his toes before the start, he soon locked onto the fences once they got going and was clearly fully engaged with the act of jumping. The closest he came to making an error was when getting in too close to the fourth last, having again “built up a head of steam” according to his rider, who was also consciously educating his mount.

“He basically ran away with me for two miles,” Jacob joked. “He was a bit keen and a bit gassy for a mile-and-a-half – he just wanted to get on with because he’d been off the track for a long time. But I thought his jumping was very good.”

James Du Berlais soon had his five opponents strung out and they never got on terms, with Ballykeel seemingly paying to some degree for chasing him even distantly and forfeiting a 15-lengths second to an improved Capilano Bridge, although the former would also have hated the ground. Jacob sees the winner as a Turners type, for which he is a standout 12/1 with Bet365.

At Plumpton last Monday, Stage Star got his campaign back on track with a straightforward 11-length defeat of sole rival, the busy Mortlach. Both horses were penalised for their past successes – Stage Star 5lb and Mortlach 10lb – but ultimately carried level weights via the runner-up being partnered by the less experienced Jack Hogan, a 5lb-claiming rider.

Harry Cobden controlled the race on the winner, who jumped fluently on the inside line. Mortlach held his position on the outside, despite the disadvantage of adjusting persistently right on this compact left-handed track, until a slightly ponderous leap at the seventh and a mistake at the tenth. After that, he was playing a hopeless game of catch-up. He rallied briefly before three out but a long, asked-for leap from Stage Star at the second last sealed the result.

This was much better from the winner, who had jumped scrappily and hung left when beaten by Sebastopol at Newbury, and suggested there should be a good prize in him – albeit he is yet to face more than three rivals in any chase field to date.

Hardy Mortlach – who was briefly trained by Stage Star’s handler Paul Nicholls as a bumper horse – is consistent and keeps collecting place prize money in novice graded events, but would have much more chance of winning in handicaps. He might need a break now, after 11 starts already this season.

Advised 01/12/22: Noble Yeats at 66/1 for the Boodles Gold Cup with William Hill

Advised 01/12/22: Ahoy Senor at 25/1 for the Boodles Gold Cup with various bookmakers

Advised 14/12/22: Hiddenvalley Lake at 8/1 with Bet365 or William Hill for the Albert Bartlett

Advised 05/01/23: The Real Whacker at 12/1 with Paddy Power or Coral for the Brown Advisory