Road To Cheltenham: Take a Munny shot ahead of Newcastle

Waldorf: “That was wonderful.”

Statler: “Bravo!”

Waldorf: “I loved it.”

Statler: “Oh, it was great.”

Waldorf: “Well, it was pretty good…”

Statler: “Well, it wasn’t bad…”

Waldorf: “There were parts of it that weren’t very good, though.”

Statler: “It could have been a lot better.”

Waldorf: “I didn’t really like it.”

Statler: “It was pretty terrible.”

Waldorf: “It was bad.”

Statler: “It was awful.”

Waldorf: “Oh, it was terrible.”

Statler: “Take ’em away.”

Waldorf: “Boo!”

Statler: “Boo!”

Thus, the social-media reception to last Sunday’s John Durkan rapidly described the Statler and Waldorf arc, to which we’re all now accustomed in modern life, before moving on to the next thing.

Obviously, some contrarians fast-forwarded straight to “Boo!”, questioning why anyone would ever claim – as Patrick Mullins did – “that’s as good a race as I’ve seen” or ask “will we see a better race this season?”, as his father wondered aloud shortly after runaway leader Gaelic Warrior rallied to overtake stablemate Fact To File in Punchestown’s feature chase last Sunday.

Yet according to Coral’s odds-compiler James Knight “it resembled a pointless schooling session for 95% of the race” and the Racing Post’s David Toft concluded “if any of [the well-beaten horses] come out and win a Grade One next time, it will be hard to see their runs on Sunday as much more than a public schooling session”.

For me, the kernels of both points peacefully coexist. This was a hugely compelling race, even though it was a ten-runner duel. Equally, I hope there are a good few better races this season. In the all-time department, it wouldn’t even feature in my top 20 (and I’m being polite here).

And that’s as it should be. This race is a worthy Grade One and serves an invaluable function in the race programme, particularly now it has been re-sited in a more useful slot, but it’s run in the third Saturday in November. It’s the equivalent of the Lockinge, rather than the Queen Anne or Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

Yet this was also a different type of John Durkan to usual. Instead of functioning as an explicit stepping-stone, populated almost in its entirety by staying types set for more suitable targets in the weeks ahead, it featured two Grade One winners who are fully effective at this intermediate trip – in the case of the runner-up, probably best at it. The also-ran jockeys all returned saying their mounts were going “flat out” and simply couldn’t live with the pace set by the winner.

Just as crucially – I would argue – those two horses are now seasoned top-flight competitors, in their third campaign over fences and not fresh out of the novice ranks. Connections weren’t testing the temperature of the water here; they knew this duo could handle the heat. Therefore, these athletes were better placed to turn it up to eleven without sacrificing the rest of their season on the altar of an unexpectedly punishing early-season skirmish. That this race is staged over two-and-a-half miles, rather than three, is a help in this regard, too.

So, which one do you like for next time, if next time is the King George? Are you of the view that Gaelic Warrior did well to battle back after taking charge of Paul Townend for most of the opening mile, doing well to have anything left after expending all that energy so inefficiently?

Or do you think Fact To File should be marked up for bridging the gap between frontman and backing singers all alone? If the latter, why did he step up to the mic but not grab hold of it? Did he lose for a lack of hard-edged race-fitness? Or was he out-stayed because this is in fact the apex of his stamina against a fellow good’un?

Or is your answer (c) neither, because they’ve both had too hard a race? (Get out of town, btw. I we’ve got to the stage where two top-drawer horses can’t go at it for the duration of the run-in without damaging their perceived chances of reproducing that form five – count ’em, five – weeks later, then we may as well call off the jumps season right now.)

My view is they both had every chance. (I know, it’ll never gain traction on X.) Gaelic Warrior did too much early but he’s a classy horse who was fit enough and a stronger stayer than the runner-up. Townend’s reaction to his mount’s mistake at the tenth was crucial – there wasn’t one. Even when they were none too fluent at the next, he just sat there, waiting in front.

Equally, Mark Walsh didn’t make any hasty moves on Fact To File; he let the leader come back to him – the most he did from was some polite nudging from three out. Both jockeys briefly thought Walsh had it in the bag when the runner-up loomed alongside after the penultimate fence, but seconds after Fact To File nosed ahead his jockey was crouching lower in the saddle.

“Honestly, yes for a stride I did,” Townend admitted to Gary O’Brien on Racing TV when asked whether he thought he was beaten when Fact To File headed Gaelic Warrior. “But I didn’t know how much ground Mark had had to make up and had he had to do it on his own and up against things? How had he jumped? I knew I wasn’t out with the washing. I knew I wasn’t going to stop but [victory] did look unlikely for a second.”

“I winged the second last and when I went by Paul, I thought I had the beating of him,” Walsh told RTÉ after unsaddling. “But to be fair to Paul’s horse he battled back and got up in front of me on the line.”

Whereas the King George is explicitly the plan for Gaelic Warrior, there is some ambiguity about where Fact To File will head next with owner JP McManus perhaps diverging from his trainer’s view. Mullins, obviously, would prefer to “send one to Kempton and one to Leopardstown”, whilst acknowledging he would have to “see how they recover”. This mixed message is reflected in mixed pricing among bookmakers, ranging from 9/2 to 7/1 at the time of writing.

“But both were fit and well coming here,” Mullins tellingly added. “And Paul said the chase track is not as testing as the hurdles track.”

Over three miles at right-handed Kempton, where the early pace tends to be challenging, I prefer the “hardy devil”, as Townend appreciatively called Gaelic Warrior. I don’t anticipate him running as fresh and impulsively with this seasonal debut under his belt. He readily consented to patient tactics when winning Aintree’s Bowl and Sandown’s Oaksey Chase at the end of last season.

Conversely, I’d seek to take on Fact To File in a Savills Chase, where I would expect reigning Gold Cup winner Inothewayurthinkin to take a major step forward. Keith Donoghue’s post-race report aligned with my expectations. “[I was] just flat out the whole way, [but he] came home, kept going. [He] gave me a better feel in the race this year than he did last year, so I’d be happy,” he told RTÉ.

His mount looked rusty in the early stages, hanging the air at time, but it was more convincing than when learning on the job as a second-season chaser, just graduating from the novice ranks, when making mistakes and unable to get involved in this race on seasonal debut last year. This horse is only seven and although Leopardstown is Galopin Des Champs’ manor, the deposed dual Gold Cup winner won’t be as ready for the Savills as he has been for the past two seasons when pitching up there on second start. He could even head to Tramore instead.

The other honourable John Durkan mention goes to Fastorslow, who was running for the first time since in 12 months after suffering a soft-tissue injury when finishing fourth behind Fact To File in the 2024 edition.

Along with race-fit Heart Wood – who, like the two principals, is fully effective at intermediate trips but at a grade below – he was the only rival to keep within hailing distance of Fact To File on Sunday whilst Gaelic Warrior was a dot on a distant horizon. A couple of mistakes at the fifth and fourth last ensured only a minor part but his stamina took him past Heart Wood in the straight.

I wouldn’t fancy Fastorslow at Kempton. Trainer Martin Brassil commented after Sunday’s race that “he’s a three-mile horse and they went a two-mile pace” and yet he’d face more of the same in a King George.

RaceiQ’s Page Fuller has highlighted that Fastorslow has “never been faster than 29.41mph over the first four fences” in any race in their database and yet, for example, “every horse in the King George last year averaged faster than 30mph over the first four fences”.

If he’s asking an either-or question, the answer is: slow. But then I’m an admirer of stamina. When Galopin, Bravemansgame and Envoi Allen got racing too far out in the 2023 Punchestown Gold Cup, it was Fastorslow who picked up the pieces. He stays. Redemption for that 2024 unseat in the Cheltenham Gold Cup is surely more suitable, or failing that back to Punchestown in April.

(Incidentally, did anyone else feel utterly outraged on Bravemansgame’s behalf when his owner Bryan Drew nominated Final Demand as “categorically, the best I’ve owned, without hesitation”. In his absolute pomp – which admittedly lasted only one season, after two terms as a smart novice over hurdles and fences – Bravemansgame won a King George, went toe-to-toe with Galopin Des Champs until the last in the Gold Cup and played a pivotal role in that Punchestown Grade One grueller. Thus far Final Demand has won a one-sided beginners' chase. Yes, he looked good. Yes, he might well turn out to be superior. But that will be no slam-dunk. Respect to Bravemansgame.)

As regards this year’s King George home defence, I like how Jango Baie gets the job done with unassuming efficiency. He was much the best in Ascot’s Grade Two 1965 Chase last Saturday, even if the race imploded behind him with Il Est Français looking a busted flush and Pic D’Orhy past his best, finishing off strongly in a manner that suggested he’ll improve again at three miles.

As for The Jukebox Man, he jumped magnificently around Haydock but went unchallenged at all stages with main threat Iroko ridden – yawn – defensively in second. The winner looked made for a King George when winning the novice equivalent last year but those first four fences will be something completely different to anything he’s faced ever previously faced. 

Closutton eventually told us last season that Lossiemouth isn’t a Champion Hurdler by the standard that’s usually required. The way Paul Townend rode her in last Saturday’s Morgiana told a similar story – keeping the revs up even after looking over his shoulder and clocking that victory was surely in the bag.

She was switched to the Punchestown Grade One in the absence of the sadly injured State Man because she is currently Willie Mullins’ best two-mile hurdler. Unless stablemate Anzadam does something devilishly impressive in Saturday’s Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle, she will retain that role and therefore run in the race formerly known as the Matheson at Leopardstown over Christmas.

However, she does not appear to run like a bang two-miler (cf. also Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle) and I didn’t like the way she had a massive guess-up at the fifth flight in a scene reminiscent of when the seagulls did for her in last term’s Irish Champion Hurdle. (A likely story, as I wrote at the time.) Eric Cantona made a better fist of that concept than Lossiemouth’s trainer, I fear.

If Lossiemouth does turn out to be Closutton’s Champion Hurdle representative, it will be because (a) they haven’t got anything better and (b) they don’t think the 2026 edition will require better than her to win it.

Which brings us to Anzadam, who’s been given a hell of a task on his seasonal debut – shipping to Britain and facing both the division’s old master and its young upstart, Constitution Hill and The New Lion respectively. There’s something about that play that makes me feel Closutton don’t quite believe it either, but that they are giving him a chance – as opposed to every chance, which would be later in the season in my book – to prove them wrong.

We’ll also find out whether Constitution Hill still has the conviction for hurdling at his rarefied level of technique or whether he can’t shake The Fear just after he’s taken off... It happens to all of us at a certain age, kids. (Yes, even to you.) We might also find out whether The New Lion has the pace for the job on his first assignment in open company, which I suspect he does.

Whatever happens, the outcome of this Newcastle Grade One means something gotta give in the ante-post Champion Hurdle market because that trio occupy the next three places behind Lossiemouth. That means now is the time to make a move on William Munny, as somewhat telegraphed in my opening column of this season.

I took some comfort that the setback he recently incurred was indeed as minor as trainer Barry Connell suggested when he briefly shaped to make a Lazarus-like reversal into the Morgiana in State Man’s absence. William Munny’s current price and position in the Champion Hurdle market surely won’t withstand this Saturday’s events and, as argued previously, I think he showed in the Supreme that he’s capable of making the grade in Tuesday’s main event.

Meanwhile, Gordon Elliott is oscillating wildly. On Saturday – admittedly before Wodhooh won the Ascot Hurdle in typically deceptively dominant style – he told Matt Chapman on ITV Racing: “I’d be shocked if she were a Champion Hurdle mare.” Two days later, he wouldn’t dismiss either the Champion or the Stayers’ Hurdle. Then he said what he really thinks, surely?

“Right now, if the race was run in a couple of weeks, I’d be thinking the Mares’ Hurdle… She gave Lossiemouth a run for her money at Aintree and she’s a stronger, better mare this season, I think.” We’ll see them both there on the Thursday, then?