Why you should be wary of backing Ballyburn for the Stayers'

The past couple of weeks have provided a feast of quality horses for racing fans to enjoy and the treat continues this weekend with Sunday seeing the first dual Grade One card of the season, at Fairyhouse. The feature is the BAR 1 Betting Hatton’s Grace, an Open hurdle run at around 2m4f, which is the classic sort of race that punters tend to misunderstand, especially in the context of it being a guide to the Cheltenham Festival.

Many make the assumption that it will be a test of stamina, probably run on testing ground, so in the context of Cheltenham it’ll be a Stayers Hurdle trial.

In fact, the opposite has been true. The ground varies a lot at this meeting but the last time ‘heavy’ featured in the official description was 2011. Five of the past ten renewals have been run on officially soft ground but four have been run on good or yielding ground. At the time of writing the ground is soft and the forecast is mixed so it may not change much, if at all, by the weekend. 

Fairyhouse is a sharp track and they tend to go quickly in the Hatton’s Grace – it’s not a race for stayers as they can’t keep up. The subsequent results at Cheltenham demonstrate that. 

Twenty runners from the Hatton’s Grace have contested the Champion Hurdle this century, six winning. The six Hatton’s Grace winners that ran in the Champion Hurdle have finished 211611. You’d have nearly trebled your money backing them at SP. 

By contrast, 37 runners from the Hatton’s Grace, including ten winners, have contested the Stayers Hurdle this century. The only winners were Teahupoo, (who has also been a beaten favourite twice in the Stayers after running in the Hatton’s Grace,) and Sire Du Berlais, (who was never able to go the gallop at Fairyhouse and ended up beaten 33¼ lengths.) Even factoring in that earlier in the century the Stayers Hurdle was an unfashionable race with many Irish trainers, that’s a modest record. 

The relative test of speed that the Hatton’s Grace tends to provide, especially when the ground isn’t too testing, usually suggests that punters are better off looking for clues for the Champion Hurdle, (and Mares Hurdle), rather than the Stayers. 

However, this year the only clues may be to the Stayers. Even allowing for it being a stronger division in Ireland than it used to be, history suggests we should treat the Hatton’s Grace form cautiously as a Stayers Hurdle guide.

Ballyburn did not take to fences and it will be fascinating to see how he gets on back over hurdles. I’m open-minded about whether he will take to it but what I do think the market consensus may have wrong is his ideal trip.

He ran over staying trips in the spring and his pedigree shouts stamina. It seems to be taken as read that three miles will suit him ideally over hurdles – but his best form is over short and intermediate trips, (although his only runs over staying trips were over fences. It may be that the obstacles were the problem not the distance.) 

Whilst its two seasons ago, I can’t get out of my head how fast a horse Ballyburn looked in the Brave Inca and Baring Bingham. We’ll see on Sunday how much of that speed he retains, as he faces a formidable opponent in Teahupoo. It would be no surprise if the Hatton’s Grace test suited Ballyburn ideally – but if there were a strong pace in the Stayers Hurdle he may get outstayed. He's a best-priced 5-1 for the Stayers.

The BAR 1 Betting Drinmore Novice Chase, run over 2m4f, has been one of the best examples of the punting maxim that, ‘the best novice in the autumn is not necessarily going to be the best novice come the spring.’ 

Since its inception as a Grade One in 1994, 18 of the 31 Drinmore winners have run at the Festival – and they have all been beaten.

Between 2011 and 2024 the level-weights Golden Miller provided a target at the same sort of trip, but the top staying novices often run over intermediate trips in the autumn so the poor record cannot be blamed on the fact there were only 14 renewals of the Golden Miller in those 31 seasons. (When the level-weights Golden Miller existed three Drinmore winners ran in it, whereas five ran in that season’s Broadway.) 

Whilst the best novice in the spring often wasn’t the best novice in the autumn, they often ran in the best autumn novice races. Seven of the 63 horses beaten in the Drinmore that ran at the Festival won, six of them in level-weights novice chases. 

A golden rule of using such trends is not to say that a Drinmore winner won’t win at the Festival, rather that they are often over-bet, especially in the immediate ante-post markets. 

A perennial autumn puzzle for punters is evaluating how long to trust the summer form for, before the better ‘winter horses’ come out. There has been a clear answer to that in the Drinmore. Horses that had run over fences during the ‘summer,’ (here taken to be June – September,) are 0/38 in the Drinmore this century. 

Perhaps with the Jumps season becoming ever more spring focused and so more of the best novices, especially those trained by Willie Mullins, not getting out in time to win their beginners’ and then run in the Drinmore, the summer form has a better chance these days. 

Gold Dancer’s summer form at Galway looks good and he backed it up at Tipperary last month, but history suggests he will come up short against the likes of Romeo Coolio, Ol Man Dingle and Slade Steel. 

In the early part of the century, the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, first run in 1994, was the only Grade One novice hurdle in Ireland before Cheltenham at around the minimum trip. 

When Jump racing was primarily a winter sport, the Royal Bond was arguably the most prestigious novice hurdle run in Ireland all season, and the natural target for the best speedy novices. Jump racing is much more a spring sport now. Similarly to the Drinmore, Willie Mullins, in particular, often has not run his best novices in their maidens in time to contest the Royal Bond. 

Despite this, the Royal Bond continues to be a good guide to the Festival, having produced nine winners of the three Grade One novice hurdles at Cheltenham this century from 46 runners – you’d have more than doubled your money backing them at SP, (four of those nine coming from the past nine Royal Bonds). 

As with the Drinmore, there is an element of the best novice in the autumn not being the best in the spring and only four of those nine Festival winners won the Royal Bond. 

The nature of the Supreme, starting downhill, with adrenalin flowing through the jockeys’ arms into the horses and the traditional roar - all combine to typically make it strongly run and so a test of stamina at the trip. 

By contrast, the Baring Bingham, starting in the hush of the centre of the course, with a big sweeping bend before runners get onto the racecourse proper – is in consequence typically steadily run and so a test of speed at the trip. 

It’s therefore unsurprising that rather than simply being a Supreme trial, the four Royal Bond winners that have followed up at the Festival this century are evenly split between the Supreme and Baring Bingham, (Istabraq also completed the Royal Bond – Baring Bingham double in 1997.) 

At this stage of the season, a few horses that turn out to be top-class novices, but thorough stayers, run in races like the Royal Bond. Trainers know they have a good prospect but don’t always yet know at what trip they will be seen to best effect. When you’re watching the Royal Bond, you’re probably not looking for Albert Bartlett contenders but of the six Royal Bond runners that contested it, two have won, (at SP of 16/1 and 33/1). 

It is a sign of the focus on the spring that despite the Royal Bond having produced more Grade One novice hurdle winners this century than any other race except the Brave Inca at the Dublin Racing Festival, it was downgraded to a Grade Two last season. 

The prize money remained unchanged and it will be interesting to see whether the Royal Bond will continue to attract novices good enough to win Grade Ones at the Festival. It’s hard at this stage of the season to assess the strength of novice hurdles before they are run but the entries for the Royal Bond suggest it could be a good renewal. 

Across the water in Britain there is also Grade One action but the BetMGM Fighting Fifth has been just a fair guide to the Champion Hurdle. Since it became a Grade One in 2004, just three of the 19 winners that contested the Champion Hurdle followed up at Cheltenham, (two beaten horses at Newcastle have also won). The influence of the Fighting Fifth has been fading, producing only two of the past 15 champion hurdlers. 

This is a good example of how you have to look at that sort of trend. The Fighting Fifth and Champion Hurdle don’t suit completely different types, which would make the Fighting Fifth an inherently poor trial. It’s been the quality of the horses running in the Fighting Fifth. 

In that 15-year period, apart from the pair that did the double, Constitution Hill and Buveur D’Air, (and perhaps Epatante who never repeated the form in seasons after she won the Champion Hurdle,) the Fighting Fifth horses have been at least a shade below Champion Hurdle standard - rather than being unable to reproduce their Newcastle form at Cheltenham. 

So, if we get three of the four big guns in the Champion Hurdle ante-post market clashing, plus the title-holder, its record as a trial shouldn’t be used against the form this year. 

Earlier in the century when the Champion Hurdle division was much deeper, a good way into the race was to look at strong graded races over the winter which were steadily run on testing ground – and look for why the form might be reversed in a faster run race on a sound surface in March. Jezki’s win in 2014 was an example of that. 

With the division thinner and the ground often testing at the Festival, that angle is less relevant these days – but if the three big guns line up at Newcastle on Saturday, it may be a factor again this year. 

Given that we’re in the dark about what level of form Constitution Hill can produce now - but that anything within 10lb of his best is likely to be good enough to beat The New Lion and Anzadam, this is a race to watch and enjoy rather than a betting contest. 

The Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase is a good example of a big race that has changed enormously – and therefore changed in terms of which Festival races it’s a trial for. It was one of the last handicaps that Gold Cup contenders still contested, with Denman and Bobs Worth doing the double and Lord Windermere winning the Gold Cup after flopping at Newbury. 

The plethora of conditions races has sucked the best stayers out of the Coral Gold Cup. Whilst 14 of the first 18 Gold Cups this century featured the Coral Gold Cup winner, none of the past seven has. Instead, their spring targets have been staying or marathon handicap chases. The Coral Gold Cup has become a handicap for handicappers. 

The impact on the staying handicap chases at the Festival has been stark. Until the 2014/15 season, runners from the Coral Gold Cup were 0/30 in the Ultima at the Festival this century, (you had to go back to Seagram in 1991 for the last Ultima winner it had produced.) In the past 11 seasons, five of the 32 Coral Gold Cup runners that contested the Ultima have won, three of which finished in the first four at Newbury. 

The Ultima is an unusually predictable handicap on the day with 20 of the 25 winners this century from the front five in the SP market. Whilst you’d have made a 42% profit backing Coral Gold Cup runners blind at SP in those last 11 Ultimas, clues from it are often best exploited ante-post when the Ultima entries/weights come out - when plenty of layers are offering the non-runner-no-bet concession. The Ultima is often a gettable race at that stage. 

The Hobbs/White team have not been able to get a run into Lowry’s Bar as they hoped and if he were to run a fair race at Newbury he could be an Ultima type. 

Looking at Saturday’s race, the form from the Festival eight months earlier illustrates how it has changed to become a handicap for handicappers. In the first 15 renewals this century where there had been a Festival earlier in the year, ten winners had run at the Festival, including six in the Broadway, (Denman, Bobs Worth and Trabolgan all did the double,) and three in the Gold Cup. It was a race won by high- and top-class horses. 

Even though the first prize is about £30,000 more than the Betfair Chase it’s become unfashionable for those sorts of horses to run, (Monty’s Star and Gorgeous Tom could represent the Gold Cup and Broadway form respectively on Saturday). In the last nine renewals, five winners had run at the previous Festival – two in each of the Kim Muir and National Hunt Chase and one in the Plate. 

Despite that, the obvious Festival handicap, the Ultima, remains a poor guide. Runners are 0/60 this century, the four Ultima winners finishing 0434. Those last nine renewals have featured 24 Ultima runners, including three winners. 

The Coral Gold Cup is usually run at a good gallop on a sound surface and favours prominently ridden horses - you need plenty of tactical speed to win. By contrast the Ultima, over 214 yards less but run on a stiffer track, has often been a real test of stamina. Horses ridden from off the pace have a strong record so perhaps the two races generally favour different types. 

However, Myretown made all in the Ultima, a race where it had been hard to win from the front, (the previous winner to make most of the running was Unguided Missile in 1998.) Like Corach Rambler (fourth in the Coral Gold Cup off 7lb higher) and Un Temps Pour Tout (10th off 10lb higher), Myretown was a first season chaser when winning the Ultima. He’s 15lb higher here having bolted up by 11 lengths at Cheltenham. 

He could make up into a Gold Cup horse, winning this on the way – but I wonder if connections are planning the Corach Rambler route of prioritising a repeat win in the Ultima en route to the Grand National. 

Some will be put off Spanish Harlem because he is 16lb higher than when winning the Kerry National but that form looks hot with Three Card Brag and French Dynamite winning big handicaps since. Willie Mullins’ Total Recall defied an 18lb rise for winning the Munster National eight years ago. Whilst it’s not unknown for him to change his mind, Willie Mullins has said Spanish Harlem is his number one for the race and 12-1 looks a big ante-post price. 

The Grade Two John Francome Berkshire Novices’ Chase at Newbury on Friday over 2m4f has a stellar record of producing elite level horses. This century it’s been won by subsequent Gold Cup heroes Denman, Bobs Worth and Coneygree and by dual King George winner Clan Des Obeaux. 

As mentioned in the context of the Drinmore, the top staying novices are often contesting races at intermediate trips at this stage of the season. Three of the six Berkshire winners this century that contested the Broadway won. 

Whilst each renewal needs looking at individually, especially with so many of the best novices in Ireland, once a race develops a reputation as a springboard to stardom, trainers often run their best prospects in it. That’s especially the case when they have trained one of those previous stars. 

Paul Nicholls is a case in point having won it five times and he has had a change of plan with Regent’s Stroll. Nicholls was going to find a small race for his first start over fences but is now intending to pitch him in here – perhaps suggesting he’s been going really well at home. He faces a strong looking field and the underestimated one may be Wendigo who was not seen to best effect in the Albert Bartlett or on chasing debut. 

The typical strength of the Berkshire and the fact the Broadway is a race British yards still do well in, having won six of the last 10 renewals, may make the winner an interesting ante-post proposition.