Road To Cheltenham: a must-read round-up from Lydia Hislop

How many Festival winners did we see at Dublin’s appetiser? Last year, it was eleven but only four of them – Galopin Des Champs, State Man, Fact To File and Ballyburn – triumphed at both. Three of those have successfully completed the first leg again this season, and how many others might be lurking behind?

I wasn’t planning to start here but the unexpected absence of Sir Gino from Saturday’s William Hill Game Spirit Chase demands it. Nicky Henderson was all set to field his exciting five-year-old against established high-class chasers at Newbury, just as he did with the great Sprinter Sacre and also Altior as novices, but “a bang on his hind leg” causes him to miss the race.

“He was perfectly fine on Thursday and he came back from his exercise perfectly all right,” his trainer reported.

“He just had a bang on his hind leg in the evening, which is sore. We think, and hope, he’ll be all right by Monday, but there’s no race for him on Monday. He’s not going to be doing anything for 24 hours and he’ll be working on the water treadmill for a couple of days, and I hope he’ll be back in action. It’s what our vets think.

“As normal, this programme doesn’t allow for things like this to happen. It might force us to go two and a half miles, which I really don’t want to do. There is also a new two-mile chase at Bangor, but that’s after Kempton and it’s too close to Cheltenham. If you can’t run before March, you can’t.”

Though we’ve heard him make similar comments many times, Henderson’s options are indeed scant. Kempton stages the Grade Two Pendil Novices’ Chase over two-and-a-half miles in a fortnight’s time and the Bangor novices’ chase to which he referred is staged four days later on 26 February. Next stop after that is the Arkle.

I guess he could consider the Ascot Chase as that’s a week sooner than Kempton and he was already prepared to take on more experienced high-class rivals, but that’s over 2m5f and so surely a bridge too far for Seven Barrows?

If Henderson rejects these options – or, indeed, if Sir Gino doesn’t recover from this seeming blip in time – it’s time to wheel out the old Well Chief and Western Warhorse stat. They’re the only Arkle winners this century only to have had one previous start over fences. The former was exceptionally good and we never got to find out about the latter as he only raced once more, when reverting to the level of his earlier form at Aintree.

Sir Gino has another stat ranged against him, of course, as does same-generation rival Majborough. Between 1998 and 2006, four editions were won by five-year-olds but since the weight-for age allowance was removed in 2008, ten have tried and failed – albeit Fakir D’Oudairies ran close to Put The Kettle On in 2020.

Sir Gino was impressive when kicking aside Ballyburn at Kempton, where his only mistake came at the first – scruffy after getting into the bottom – and he was otherwise spectacular, regularly taking off from outside the wings. Yet that level of inexperience allied to his gung-ho attitude only adds to the jeopardy, so it was no surprise bookmakers eased him in the market and trimmed his main rival.

Majborough’s jumping appeared to the naked eye to be more careful than that of Sir Gino, but the RaceiQ numbers discussed on Road To Cheltenham this week challenged that interpretation. 

As Ruby Walsh pointed out, the quicker you approach a fence, the more speed you have to lose – and this data shows Sir Gino was on average quicker in this department than either of Majborough’s efforts, albeit not as fast at his maximum as his rival’s Fairyhouse debut. Yet it remains true that on average Majborough lost less time and speed on both his chase starts.

In the Irish Arkle, he appeared to get in close to the fifth, where he was untidy, and sixth. At the eighth he drifted left and nodded, and did the same to a lesser extent at the second last sans nod. But when Mark Walsh asked him for the leap that he knew his mount possessed three out and rode him into the last, he was rewarded.

Clearly, Majborough was more efficient than he looked but I don’t think Cheltenham’s closing stages – four out and especially two out – will be straightforward viewing. That said, for a horse who’s been taught to jump the French way, he’s not as low as many and never looked like falling on either occasion he’s faced fences in Ireland. It’s good to have locked in 5/1 for this column.

I was surprised Touch Me Not didn’t make the running for longer at Leopardstown, but the winner was in a zestier mood. It’s also starting to look like the runner-up – a much better model over fences – reached a decent level quickly but hasn’t built. A step up to two-and-a-half miles, given a harsh critic would suggests his jumping is a little airy compared to Majborough’s, should bring about some improvement, though.

Having tried both two miles and four furlongs further over fences, ridden in different ways, it looks like the class of his opposition is Firefox’s primary problem. I had thought a forcing ride over two mile was what he needs, but his jumping doesn’t seem swift enough for that trip.

With four chase starts under his belt and a helpful 2lb drop from the Irish handicapper, the Grade Two Jack Richards Novices’ Handicap Chase over 2m4f looks just his Cheltenham ticket – albeit his British mark might yet be different. Good enough to place at all three major Festivals as a novice hurdler, I still can’t help but feel things will click into place sometime soon.

Back in a never-involved fourth, the giant Jeannot Lapin had as positive an experience as possible for one having just his second start over fences under Rules and remains with potential.

Ile Atlantique also couldn’t get competitive, with interpretations varying from Ruby’s plausible theory that he hadn’t recovered from his win in searching ground at Naas less than four weeks earlier to fears – amplified by the whimpering way he concluded last season over hurdles – that he doesn’t like it up ’im. Two miles might not be his trip either.

Outclassed though he palpably was, what a shame for British raider Here Comes Georgie to go all that way and knuckle on landing at the first. 

It now falls to L’Eau Du Sud to remind everyone he’s an Arkle player when taking on Rubaud (a faller behind Sir Gino at Kempton when well held on chase debut), the mostly consistent Tedley and, perhaps most intriguingly, stablemate Riskintheground in Warwick’s Unibet Kingmaker Novices’ Chase.

L’eau Du Sud had Touch Me Not three-and-three-quarter lengths adrift in the Henry VIII Novices Chase and that’s hard to compare with Majborough’s nine-length dismissal as the dual runner-up made a stilling mistake at the sixth at Sandown but might (arguably, not conclusively) be better racing right-handed.

Sticking with the Sandown theme, Handstands got the better of Jango Baie for the second time in their brief careers in a good tussle for the Grade One Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase there last Saturday. The winner continues to thrive, this his most substantial performance yet.

Whereas the Towton fell apart in his wake (albeit he carried a 5lb penalty) and the form of his Esher Novices’ Chase success over half a mile further at this track has not been advertised by the vanquished, this was substantial stuff. Jumping fluidly here, he turned away the persistent attentions of the runner-up with a generous performance.

The major skirmish developed from the Pond Fence three out, where Mark Of Gold was already outclassed and Kalif Du Berlais went from seemingly travelling well enough to beaten after stretching and brushing through the top. At this and the next obstacle, the main protagonists traded better jumps. Handstands got away swiftly here, only to stutter into two out where the waited-with Jango Baie landed almost upsides. 

Ben Jones was the first to reach for his whip on the winner, who responded immediately for one tap and got the last spot on, whereas the runner-up jumped it alongside but got in closer and landed a tad messily for Nico de Boinville. From there it was hammer and tongs, with Handstands pulling out enough to repel the steadily gaining Jango Baie by a short head.

I don’t agree with Ruby that Jango Baie had every chance to go past; I think both horses found plenty, the winner just a bit more. His improvement has either coincided with or been influenced by encountering heavy ground the last twice; it was similarly testing when he beat the same horse in last term’s Sidney Banks.

Winning trainer Ben Pauling favours missing Cheltenham altogether with Handstands in favour of stepping back up to three miles for the Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree and, beyond that, for next season’s King George. Wouldn’t it be great if he or stablemate The Jukebox Man – currently sidelined – took in the Coral Gold Trophy en route? They both have the required attributes. 

Of Cheltenham, Pauling observed: “We didn’t enter him for a reason. We had a plan and that was to do what we’ve done, and it’s worked. To reshuffle the pack just because The Jukebox Man has fallen by the wayside would probably be a mistake. Next season’s King George looks a pretty obvious route. We’d have one run before we got there. It would be a similar feel to The Jukebox Man’s season, I think.”

As for Jango Baie, Henderson is toying with stepping him up to three miles but currently prefers stable companion and recent Windsor winner Jingko Blue – also owned by Tony Barney – for such projects, although both have a Brown Advisory entry.

The latter is set to be the first to try that trip in Ascot’s Grade Two Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase next Saturday. Of Jango Baie, Henderson told Nick Luck’s podcast listeners that “if there was a Turners two-and-a-half-mile novice chase, that’s what he would run in”. 

“But as it’s not there this year, he can’t run in a handicap, then what do we do? We’re sort of mulling it over,” he added. “I’d say Jango Baie’s ideal is probably two-and-a-half [miles], but if it’s on decent ground one could think about going three. And wait for Aintree.”

I was left with the impression three miles is well within Jango Baie’s compass. Yet the Jack Richard route is not impossible and might even prove quite attractive for a 153-rated animal. As Ruby rightly said, three chase starts are the minimum line-up requirement but entrants have until 23 February to gain that qualification rather than when entered the preceding week. It’s not Henderson’s style to rush, however.

Kalif Du Berlais faded to fourth despite looking comfortably third best for much of this race. It was both his first attempt beyond 2m1f and the first time he’s encountered heavy ground since his racecourse debut in France as a three-year-old. However, he folded quite quickly before entering the straight.

His oddly aggressive Champion Chase entry was withdrawn by Paul Nicholls mid-morning the following day but that can only be interpreted as a positive signal for the long term. He may be the same age as Sir Gino and Majborough, but it’s plausible he needs more time. Different strokes and all that.

At Leopardstown the following day, Ballyburn did well to put as much as five lengths between himself and Croke Park in the Ladbroke Novice Chase, especially as the runner-up executed the better jump at the last.

He’d travelled better entering the straight but Croke Park is tenacious and much improved for fences – knuckling down, giving his rival a nudge and taking off marginally ahead at that obstacle. But after being more careful at that final obstacle, Ballyburn responded unstintingly to pressure, drawing further clear as the line came.

He will clearly improve for three miles in the Brown Advisory and Mullins believes there is further improvement when he learns not to agitate to go faster. He might well have a touch more innate class than Dancing City – whose recent defeat of smart staying mare Bioluminescence is nonetheless smart form – but it sets up a first-world-problem choice for Paul Townend come the Festival.

Barriers to Galopin Des Champs emulating Best Mate by winning a trio of successive Cheltenham Gold Cups are melting away – much like his physical rivals from the last fence in the Irish equivalent last weekend. As tough as he is brilliant, this is a staying chaser who moves fast and breaks things.

At Leopardstown, Paul Townend assumed that critical prominent position from the outset and his mount quickly clicked into a fine jumping rhythm, which propelled him to the front after the third. From there, he controlled the race – much as he did over the same course and distance at Christmas – with his opponents too plain frit to take him on.

They knew from his body of work that if they go harder, he thrives – perhaps more than any of them – and yet he also possesses comparative tactical pace for such a thorough stayer, too. It’s rock-and-a-hard-place stuff when he’s in his flow. His giant, springy jump two out, drawing gasps from the crowd, served as a warning of how much he had left.

They queued up in the straight and yet even before Fact To File took off at the last, Mark Walsh surely knew he was cooked – despite his mount having settled better than in the Savills Chase and taking closer order without expending much energy. On landing, he not only had the dispiriting sight of Galopin Des Champs’ rapidly disappearing backside but that damn crock Grangeclare West passing him by, too.

This was a career best from the latter, form that belatedly built on his comfortable defeat of Corbetts Crossand Flooring Porter in Grade One novice company at Leopardstown two Decembers ago. He’s surely earned a crack at the big one, if he gets there – this is his third attempt at making the Festival. Let’s hope he keeps body and soul together this year as he’s unexposed as a stayer and bred to enjoy the stamins test.

Most people, not to mention its betting market, assume Fact To File will now drop back in trip for the Ryanair. This view was finally supported in open speech by Mullins at Wednesday’s Closutton stable visit, organised by the Jockey Club – albeit with the significant implied caveat that the subject has yet to be broached with owner JP McManus and racing manager Frank Berry.

“He’s in the Gold Cup,” Mullins said. “I imagine we might be leaning the other way [Ryanair] but I’d have to go back and look at the tactics from the other day. I’m not sure it showed him in the best light. Something different was tried the other day and I’m not sure it worked.

“He’d have to have different tactics [to stay 3m 2f]. He’s a very good jumper and maybe if more use was made of his jumping, but these are all things which need to be worked out and there could be other opportunities for him, like the Ryanair, but that hasn’t been touched on since the race [Irish Gold Cup].”

More use of his jumping = more positive ride over a shorter trip = Ryanair, which would make a lot of sense for such a sure-footed horse. With a growing sense of inevitability about his Festival target, the decision to enter the McManus-owned Spillane’s Tower solely in the intermediate Grade One gets ever odder. He’s surely a stayer?

As for Galopin Des Champs, this wasn’t a performance to rank with his 2023 Gold Cup or Savills chase successes, but nonetheless he powered past the winning post and galloped on towards history. He became only the fourth horse to win three Irish Gold Cups – equalling the tallies of Jodami and Beef Or Salmon but still one shy of Florida Pearl and yet in form terms better than any of them. Grittier, also.

Two days later, Gordon Elliott announced Gerri Colombe was out for the season – hitherto considered de facto main threat on the weight of last year’s second place and this term by dint of missing engagements rather than being beaten in them. His setback is more ill-timed than serious, however, and he’ll be back next term. 

Yet his seasonal return at Down Royal had been underwhelming, perhaps due to being taken to the dark side last March? Just ask Bravemansgame and Corach Rambler what the view’s like from there. (Same backside; tougher venue.)

Il Est Français was also scratched from the Gold Cup in the small hours of Monday, but remains in the Ryanair and Champion Chase.

Conversely, Grey Dawning was removed from the former race late on Sunday night but left in the Gold Cup, Dan Skelton later acknowledging he’d kept that door ajar despite the primary plan being the William Hill Bowl at Aintree via Kelso. As Ruby Walsh noted in last night’s Road To Cheltenham, we’re one mishap away from a yawningly wide-open race. (You can rely on him for the sunshine.)

In the same episode of Nick Luck Daily [listen above] that Skelton explained the positioning of his door, Joseph O’Brien nailed his colours to the mast of the Gold Cup for King George hero Banbridge – except in the scenario of testing ground, which of course we got last year at Cheltenham yet very much not two years ago.

On the other hand, Venetia Williams averred “it’s not all about Cheltenham” when suggesting last year’s fourth L’Homme Pressé – most recently a snug winner of the Cotswold Chase from a revivified Stage Star (who heads to the Bowl) – could take in the Ascot Chase next weekend. It’s a race he used as a stepping-stone to the Festival last term, finishing a below-par second to Pic D’Orhy.

Meanwhile, Corbetts Cross continues to be smuggled towards that target for McManus by Emmet Mullins following his King George sixth – a race where he was as unsuited by the emphasis on stop-start speed as the winner thrived on it. As I said in Road 8 of this series (), expect cheekpieces (at least) to be applied in March.

Back in fourth at Leopardstown last Saturday, Inowthewayurthinkin produced his best effort yet over fences – despite having to be ridden along on landing at the first and making errors at the fourth and second last. Indisputably, he will improve further for a greater test of stamina. Bookmakers have been playing Grand National okey-cokey with him since April, as this table of Paddy Power prices illustrates:

Inothewayurthinkin continues to be backed, despite – or perhaps because? (Psych!) – trainer Gavin Cromwell reiterating at his Jockey Club-organised stable tour on Tuesday the Grand National is not necessarily the horse’s primary target, adding the Irish version might be preferred and this time introducing the Bowl as a further option. Frankie Tight Lips (© Final Furlong Pod) would be proud.

There are always regrets when you write a column like this. Let’s hope this, from Road 8, isn’t one of them:

“I mentioned there’d been a derailment to this column. Its first draft contained a 33/1 ante-post tip for the National on Inowthewayurthinkin. Then, he didn’t appear among the Gold Cup entries and so was judiciously trimmed to 25/1 tops by bookmakers for Aintree instead. Next, this news [Cromwell saying Aintree “unlikely”] emerged and he was pushed out again. Nobody is yet betting on the 2025 Irish Grand National. He’ll win that. As Cromwell says, he promises to be better than a handicapper yet.”

Of the other likely National candidates, there was more life in I Am Maximus than at Christmas – but that wouldn’t be difficult. This time, he completed despite jumping, or running down fences, characteristically and wildly to his left. He’s tracking at about 5lb below his level this time last year, which then was a springboard to bursting into life in the Bobbyjo about a fortnight after the Aintree weights were published.

Stable companion Minella Cocooner has less essential quality and was again out of his depth in ninth, but is being prepared for the same target. Conflated was competitive in this grade a mere nine months ago, however, and seems to have lost his way entirely. Though now rated 12lb lower, it’s not obvious the announcement of his weight allocation for Liverpool will have a comparably regenerative effect.

Ruby Walsh liked the idea of the National for Monty’s Star in this week’s show, but I’m not yet giving up on further progress from him in the Gold Cup. This was a sizeable step forward on his belated return at Tramore – presumably due to an early-season setback – turning around the form of his defeat by Embassy Gardens on 6lb worse terms and recording a career best.

Henry de Bromhead’s representative is still yet to encounter a strongly run three miles and he can be expected to improve for it. I remain of the view he can hit the frame at Cheltenham where his accurate jumping might these days be more rewarded than in Aintree’s most famous race.

Embassy Gardens ran more substantially than I was anticipating, mixing it up front in the early stages, not backing out when an exceptional champion went on at the fourth, and staying involved until the final fence. The pace wasn’t of the resolution-testing variety, but he’s looking far less one-dimensional than he did over hurdles and fences as a novice.

Atrial fibrillation came to light after he plodded home behind Corbetts Cross in last season’s NH Chase, so perhaps an underlying issue has been resolved? Yet he was nonetheless scratched from the Gold Cup at the forfeit stage due to a belief beyond the Closutton walls that he’s not at his best at Cheltenham. That looks precipitate, based on the likely ultimate field size.

If we include Hewick in the potential line-up, I think we’re looking at a scenario of eight or nine runners. He was running a stormer in the Gold Cup two seasons ago until taking a tumble two out, but missed last year’s edition due to heavy ground. Transferred to the care of Tara Lee Cogan whilst Shark Hanlon’s licence is suspended, he ran respectably when seventh in the Irish Gold Cup – especially for a trainer who hasn’t had a winner, admittedly from scant runners, over Jumps since September 2014 and on the Flat since May 2018.

The following day, Solness demanded to be taken seriously as a top-flight two-mile chaser with his second Grade One victory in as many starts. The race was unconventional to watch, drawing debate on the day, but I think it’s possible both to acknowledge the winner did not gain his success cheaply and to conclude the form might be hard to replicate in different circumstances.

As Ruby illustrated in the show, Danny Mullins won this race early with an injection of pace from the second fence – where it was surely no coincidence El Fabiolo took the first actual fall of his clumsy career when approaching that obstacle more quickly than any other fence on which RaceiQ holds data about him.

At that point, Mullins’ rivals reasonably chose not to go with Solness, or else were unable, and he established a long lead. Initially, Quilixios – who’d jumped the first fence in front – was the leader’s closest pursuer but by the sixth Marine Nationale – positioned by Sean Flanagan to shadow Solness by racing on the wide outside of this left-handed track, in contrast to where they’d raced at Christmas – was alongside. By contrast, Gaelic Warrior, who had earlier accompanied the Marine Nationale in mid-division, had dropped to rear.

At three out, Marine Nationale’s progress was checked by a mistake but Mullins was also taking a well-judged breather on Solness, so the gap between the pair was appreciably bridged. Quilixios hung around until backing out on the home turn, weakening to the extent that Gaelic Warrior had reeled him laboriously in for third by the final fence.

Flanagan had arrived there moments earlier, barely more than a length down on the winner, and must briefly have felt quite hopeful but tough little Solness found enough that he was never truly threatened.

Joseph O’Brien – the first person not called Willie Mullins to win this race – said he and Danny had “learned a lot… tactically” when beaten 25 lengths by Jonbon in Sandown’s Tingle Creek in December, patient tactics exacerbated when overjumping out to his right and pecking on landing at the first. This knowledge was “put to good use at Christmas time” with JJ Slevin on board, the trainer told Nick Luck in his podcast on Tuesday. 

“What Solness does [is] he jumps and he goes. He’s an aggressive jumper and he likes an aggressive ride,” O’Brien said. “And it takes a bit of guts to go and follow him because you leave yourself open for something to come from the back and beat you. But then again, it’s hard to give him too much rope as well. I thought his attitude at the back of the last, from there up to the line, was really the most telling part of the performance.”

Now, Solness does have a habit of adjusting right at his fences and whilst that’s a straight-up advantage at Leopardstown given how the track rides (despite it being left-handed), it’s not of benefit on Cheltenham’s Old Course. Even at Navan, where he finished a neck second to Found A Fifty in the Fortria in November, they race around the outside of the left-handed track.

Unlike Gaelic Warrior, who has the same propensity, he can’t be wedged on the inside of another rival because his ergon is to run free and dominate. So, although Solness has clearly improved about a stone in a busy campaign since finishing a never-really-involved eleventh in last year’s Grand Annual on the New Course, I envisage him struggling to replicate this form effectively in the Champion Chase.

Jonbon is also a far more substantial rival than any Solness has faced in Ireland currently, given I can’t fathom what’s inhibiting Gaelic Warrior. Clearly, ground less testing than ideal at this trip and on a track where he’s rarely been seen to good effect can’t have helped. Yet he also looks lethargic.

Interestingly, Mullins applied a tongue-tie for the first time in the three years he’s trained the horse, although it was twice deployed under the care of Guillaume Macaire. Is that a tell?

His current trainer also seems to think there’s a problem, commenting at his stable tour on Wednesday: “I’m just wondering has he some other issue, which I’m trying to look into at the moment. I’ve a few things I want to look into and I want to check him before I say any more.” 

Stablemate El Fabiolo was said to be some way off full fitness due to an early-season setback; indeed, at one stage part-owner Simon Munir seemed unconvinced he’d even make it to the DRF. It will be interesting to see how the horse reacts to this first tumble – whether it’s capable of concentrating a mind that appears default inattentive – if/when he lines up in Gowran’s Red Mills Chase next Saturday.

Gaelic Warrior and El Fabiolo still hold entries in both the Champion Chase and Ryanair, and could yet flip either way. Whilst Energumene remains firmly on course for the Queen Mum, Mullins “hoping” he’ll be better returned to Cheltenham (the theory Jonbon is not so good there clearly gaining traction at Closutton), Gaelic Warrior could be upped in trip.

“I thought he looked to be going so average about the fifth last and it looked to everyone like Paul might pull him up,” Mullins commented. “Paul actually said the same to me, that he was going to pull him up, and then he just seemed to get his second wind context and stayed on well, so the Ryanair comes into the equation now after that. It could just be a bit too fast going down the back side for him.”

Physical issue, or trip on this ground, or a combination of both? He’s second favourite in the Ryanair NRNB market and third in, behind Jonbon and Il Est Français, for the Queen Mum. As Patrick Mullins said, write off this horse at your peril. Provided the going at Cheltenham isn’t so sound he’s taken off his feet, he’ll thrive in a fast-run edition of the latter. Whatever happens next, his pacifying hood seems likely to come off.

In the backwash at Leopardstown, Gentleman De Mee ran a little bit better again for the second start in succession but is still a good two stone below his peak ability. He’s been dropped another 2lb by the Irish handicapper, making it a cautious 6lb in total for defeats adding up to 108 lengths since his return. I fear this horse isn’t doing an Andy Defresne, however, even if he gets a Grand Annual entry.

Quilixios paid the price for trying, even distantly, to keep tabs on the winner but his elder stablemate Captain Guinness may not even get to defend his Champion Chase crown as, following health problems, he currently looks a shadow of his former self, sadly.

Placing to one side the unknowable scenario that a tweak resolves concerns about Gaelic Warrior, Marine Nationale is perhaps emerging as the chief threat to Jonbon. It’s taken time for him to find confidence over fences, but he’s improving with every start and, although he’ll need to step forward again, we know he’s effective on the Old Course from his 2023 Supreme triumph in the hands of Michael O’Sullivan (a young man who is in all of our thoughts).

What to make of an anti-climactic Irish Champion Hurdle? It’s hard to conclude – as State Man’s rider Paul Townend seemed to do – that there are any positives, aside from his hardy and consistent mount being celebrated as a triple winner of that Grade One event. To my eye, the horse looked exhausted in that winner’s enclosure.

Danny Mullins had set strong fractions on Lossiemouth, with Townend just a half-length off them, the pair trapping along at a pace 30 lengths faster than Kopek Des Bordes’s earlier race at the point of the mare’s departure four out. Members of the media who spoke to Willie Mullins afterwards all believed the trainer to be somewhat irritated by the tactics employed, repeatedly referencing the speed they were going in his post-race interviews.

The fall came out of the blue because, if anything, when watching live I felt she was asking questions of her stable companion at the preceding hurdles. Interestingly, however, Townend did comment afterwards that he’d let his mount attack the flight immediately prior to the drama and he’d felt like the old State Man rather than the pale imitation he was at Christmas.

Furthermore, it’s worth noting the also-ran least engaged with the early pace, dropped-right-out Daddy Long Legs, emerged from the pack and get to within an undignified six-and-a-half lengths of the State Man. However, he had also wasted least energy by largely not repeatedly jumping and running down hurdles to the right as both Winter Fog and Fils D’Oudairies became fixated on doing. He was finishing so comparatively strongly – a finishing speed percentage of 103.22% as compared with State Man’s 94.88%, the slowest of any winner over the two days – that Townend was moving to chake the reins after checking behind him after the last.

Ruby Walsh countered my belief that the winner finished leaden-legged with his inside knowledge of the horse, his just-do-what’s-required, self-preserving attitude that tends to go hand-in-hand with a long and consistent career. Of course, he’d also been knocked out of his rhythm by Lossiemouth’s fall taking his legs from underneath him and almost bringing him down.

Both are rational counter arguments – and perhaps I’m guilty of confirmation bias, given this column’s ante-post position – but that’s my view. I don’t think State Man was going as well as Lossiemouth when she crashed out, and I don’t think he’s the horse he was last season – an attainable target anyway.

Townend admitted in Leopardstown’s winner’s enclosure he was, understandably, none the wiser about which horse to ride at Cheltenham but Mullins believes he’ll stick. “I can’t see Paul on anything that has happened up to now getting off State Man,” he observed. “State Man only does what he has to do, he only beats a horse by a length, a length and a half. He’s never flashy.”

I suspect the trainer is right, particularly given Townend had his name locked in against State Man from an unnecessarily early stage – deviating from the usual Closutton formula – when declarations for last Sunday’s race were made. Funny how the 11:59am replacement of Mr P. Mullins with D. Mullins on Lossiemouth on the Horseracing Ireland database has now been buried by the sands of time. One to bear in mind, popcorn to hand, for future developments.

Presumably D. Mullins would keep the ride at Cheltenham in this scenario? Chuntering about both jockeys’ pace judgment aside – even Ruby Walsh acknowledged on this week’s Road To Cheltenham that he would have expected one of them to steady in the run – pilot error was not responsible for the mare’s heavy fall. At his stable tour, the trainer threw out a sardine.

“I don’t know what happened to Lossiemouth,” he said. “There was a flock of seagulls that just took off and maybe that took her eye off because she just pricked her ears straight before the hurdle and then just didn’t get up. It was if she was looking at something ahead of her and she just didn't get up high enough.”

When the seagulls follow the trawler, it’s because they think they might be implicated in an outlandish theory. I prefer to file this under: cause unknown (but it’s a horse).

Mullins was more convincing when reiterating his view that Team Lossiemouth should not deviate from the intended plan. “We’re going for the Champion Hurdle. We we’ve been training her for this for two years and I don’t think my owner [Rich Ricci] has ever said ‘Let’s think about it’.” That’s good news for our purposes, but it’s impossible to gauge how such a somersaulting fall might affect her confidence.

It's worth noting the reactions of interested parties among the onlookers. Gordon Elliott, who plans to leave the decision “as late as we can” on where to direct Brighter Days Ahead at Cheltenham, was left wondering aloud after Sunday’s events whether Lossiemouth would be redirected to the Mares’ Hurdle as a result of that fall.

Watching on from Britain, Constitution Hill’s trainer Nicky Henderson thought: “Surely both mares won’t turn up in the Champion Hurdle?” Interestingly, he added (on the basis of what, I don’t know): “Brighter Days Ahead, I’m sure, will turn up in the Champion Hurdle.” Fascinating psychological by-play. (You’ve got to get something out of the frustration of overlapping targets.)

Unfortunately, recent Limestone Lad winner Anzadam won’t be among those lining up on 11 March after picking up “a little injury” at Naas. He “won’t be ready for Aintree” according to Willie Mullins, who added: “I don’t feel it’s prudent to try and rush him back for Punchestown, so he’ll miss the remainder of the season.”

I read that as Mullins having already mentally dismissed the idea of Cheltenham for Anzadam; Ruby as him merely calculating the soonest possibility of a return to action. He’s probably right.

Either way, it seems the outside world has breached the walls of Closutton. Since Patrick took up this journalism lark and gone rogue in those pesky Sporting Life podcasts, the Order’s vow of silence is breaking down. News is getting out, even – in a departure from past form – in Willie Mullins’ own columns! Sometimes even promptly! Where did it all go wrong?

From looking a shade shaky in the novice-hurdling department, Willie Mullins emerged with the leading contender in two divisions in Kopek Des Bordes and Final Demand.

It was obvious when Kopek Des Bordes forged into the lead three out in the Tattersalls Ireland Brave Inca Novice Hurdle that he was poised to depose poor-jumping stablemate Salvator Mundi as favourite for the Sky Bet Supreme. Townend’s biggest headache was the loose Eastern Legend, who had chiselled his way between the winner and then-leader Karafon on the bend and then pestered him on the approach to the second last and threatened to carry him out. Horse and rider did well to adjust in time to jump the flight cleanly. From there, it was all over bar the shouting, Townend’s rear-view check mostly showboating; ultimately, there was a 15-length gap back to eventual runner-up Karniquet.

Having got his jumping on the straight and narrow – improving his speed-loss stats from -4.65mph on average at his hurdles on Boxing Day to -2.88mph here – Kopek Des Bordes’s only Achilles’ heel might be his temperament. He skirted the right side of edgy in the preliminaries and the wrong side of enthusiastic in the race, making his relative malleability when things threatened to go Pete Tong an encouraging sign. The buzz prior to the Supreme will be a whole different ball-game, however.

Though plainly delighted with the winner and later quoting an over-bordes Ted Walsh (who likened him to the brilliant but ill-fated Golden Cygnet), Mullins was not inclined to dismiss Salvator Mundi for Cheltenham. “Salvator Mundi will have it all to do to get up to him,” he told Nick Luck on Racing TV last Sunday. [link] “But I think he could have that ability. We just haven’t seen it yet.”

Extreme waiting tactics suited Karniquet, who’d underperformed when refusing to settle and all but falling at the second over the course-and-distance Grade One. He made a rapid enough wide move into contention and was nudged into a clear second on the home turn but the winner had powered away. He’s had five starts over hurdles, which means he’s qualified for the County on a mark of 144.

It was good to see a British raider at the DRF (a) at all and (b) taking home some prize money when Good And Clever bagged third. Still a maiden after three starts over hurdles and twice placing at Grade One level, will Warren Greatrex stay big and thus end the season with (most likely) the horse’s status intact or (best-case scenario) a top-flight success snatched, or will he lower his sights and pick up a novice that’s surely his for the taking, wherever it might be?

Fourth-placed Kaid D’Authie, whom Mullins had burdened with comparisons to Majborough since Christmas, was keen and novicey; once victory was impossible, Mark Walsh rode him with on-brand circumspection, his belief in his mount as a nascent chaser in mind.

Sticking with Team Mullins, stablemate Sea Of Sands, found to be “clinically abnormal” after pulling up over Christmas and disappointing Closutton, was armed with both a first-time tongue-tie and hood but made a mistake at the fourth. Redemption Day, predictably, doesn’t look like transferring his bumper prowess to the sticks, but JJ Slevin accepted defeat without a fight on Karafon and is better than his margin of defeat. He, too, is qualified for the County (if making the cut from 132).

Hitherto ultra-consistent Bleu De Vassy was the big disappointment, entitled to be in the mix for the places at least judged by his form already in the book whereas stablemate Whinney Hill appeared to be making up the numbers. Eastern Legend was already on the retreat when stepping on the hurdle he’d flattened and unseating Keith Donoghue.

The previous day, Final Demand had stamped his authority on the DRF’s opening contest, the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle, delivering on the abundant promise of his Limerick debut over Christmas.

He did all that Townend wanted him to do when he wanted him to do it – lobbing along on the inside rail on the heels of the leaders until asked to angle wide on the home turn, cajoled into the lead at the final flight and then steadily drawing clear for mere hands-and-heels riding of the dependable Wingmen by 12 lengths.

Though a nascent chaser, he doesn’t lack for pace and Mullins was unequivocal when pinpointing his Festival target as the Turners Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle over rather than the Albert Bartlett. It’s always been the trainer’s modus operandi to build up to long distances, no matter how persuasively the counter argument was put to him by one member of the press at his stable tour.

Gordon Elliott has nominated the Albert Bartlett as Wingmen’s Festival target, as he would need a further start over hurdles to qualify for handicaps and this steadily improving horse looks likely to take another step forward when upped to three miles.

Third-placed Mozzie’s Sister – ridden more prominently than over three miles at Limerick over Christmas, as trainer Declan Queally had said she would be – ran a stormer and will be a force against her own sex. There are plenty of graded targets of that type to choose from, not just the Festival’s Dawn Run.

In first-time cheekpieces, Jasmin De Vaux jumped better than previously without yet convincing that he’s alighted upon a sure-fire technique of getting from A to B. That said, stepping up to three miles in the Albert Bartlett will undoubtedly help this thorough stayer and he may do better again. Fifth-placed stablemate Sounds Victorius is steadily improving and will also be suited to that task.

The mare World Of Fortunes again lost her pitch mid-race despite first-time cheekpieces and needs both to drop in grade and step up in trip. The maiden I Am Lorenzo remains with potential as a future novice chaser but Supersundae – in a first-time hood and reapplied tongue-tie – was again too keen and was pulled up. He jumps well and holding him up is neutralising that asset.

A first-time hood and more patient tactics did the trick for Hello Neighbour, who maintained his unbeaten record in the Gannon’s City Recovery & Recycling Services Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Travelling strongly with cover under more patient tactics, the winner was produced by Keith Donoghue to lead at the last.

There, he reached for the flight and was firmly challenged by auld rival Lady Vega Allen, who’d run him to a short head over the course and distance at Christmas. But he pulled away from her on landing and found enough to be untroubled by the late attentions of the rallying Galileo Dame.

It’s easy to agree with trainer Gavin Cromwell, who believes Hello Neighbour will perform better in a strongly run race such that the Triumph is likely to be. By contrast, this was a steadily run affair with all the field in some sort of contention turning for home – bar the favourite and choice of Paul Townend, Sainte Lucie, who’d dropped through the field like a stone moments earlier and would soon be eased.

However, JCB Triumph Hurdle favourite East India Dock already sets a standard good enough to win most editions of that race and boasts both the stamina and jumping technique required for the task. On actual achievements to date, it’s Lulamba who’s priced on promise and reputation rather than achievement, even if there was much to like about his Ascot defeat of the free-going but smart Mondo Man.

Joseph O’Brien has indicated that Galileo Dame will also receive an entry for the Ryanair Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, where she would receive a four-year-old’s allowance from elder rivals, but that the Triumph is her primary target. Much like Hello Neighbour, she improved for cover and more patient tactics, having not bee suited to making her own running when pulling herself to the front at this track over Christmas. She was rated 96 on the Flat and deemed good enough to contest the Irish Oaks, so shouldn’t be underestimated.

Lady Vega Allen didn’t build on her Irish debut but probably finished close enough to make Mullins’ Triumph squad, whilst stablemate Willy De Houelle with a reapplied tongue-tie produced his best effort yet for the yard albeit he is still underperforming on expectations. He now has a mark of 138, which is no debar to Fred Winter triumph as the below table demonstrates:

Advised 19/12/24: Majborough at 5/1 with Bet365 for the My Pension Expert Arkle Chase

Advised 02/01/25: Lossiemouth at 7/1 with Bet365 or BetMGM for the Unibet Champion Hurdle

Advised 11/01/25: Corbetts Cross each-way at 25/1 with various for the Randox Grand National

Advised 02/01/25: Gaelic Warrior at 5/1 with Paddy Power for the Queen Mother Champion Chase

The Vodkatini of this enterprise, exercising his right not to take part.