Road To Cheltenham: Galopin to last Gold Cup distance

When it came to it, there seemingly was no decision to be made. Paul Townend made the running on State Man and Rachael Blackmore opted to sit off the pace on Honeysuckle in the Irish Champion Hurdle.

Sure, two years ago the triple titleholder would have simply moved up to the challenger’s shoulder and then poured it on from two out. That making it clearly wasn’t an option, however, gave her defeat a sense of inevitability from the outset. Like so many gathered at Leopardstown, I still willed the mare to challenge, but she’d relinquished control with her crown. As hinted by the Hatton’s Grace, when she struggled to shrug off Ashdale Bob on the home turn, her zip was gone.

Yet she remains a highly talented horse, one that holds a leading chance in the Ryanair Jack de Bromhead Mares’ Hurdle, so you can empathise with the decision to take her to Cheltenham for one final hurrah. The reputational downside of getting beaten in that arena is greater, of course, but at some level you sense that doesn’t even matter now to the team around Honeysuckle. They just want to be in her presence a little bit longer.

Sunday was another beautiful day, this time tinged with poignancy, but made by the crowd, who applauded Honeysuckle into the parade ring, celebrated Blackmore getting on board and cheered her to post – to the degree that Molony reported she said she’d arrived at the start with “an inane grin” on her face. After it was over, the crowd also loudly hailed her back when trainr Henry de Bromhead and owner Kenny Alexander received her to the unaccustomed second-place spot.

Surely all expected, as I did, that this was the last time they’d see her on a racecourse and not merely at Leopardstown. The decision to keep going wasn’t an easy one – and something of a surprise given the post-race vibe last Sunday, when everyone gathered at the track recognised the end of an era and the passing of the crown.

“We had a good chat on Sunday evening – Henry, Rachael, Kenny and me,” said Peter Molony, racing manager to Alexander. “There were differing views and every option was discussed. Eventually, we were all on the same page and decided that the mare deserved one last go.

“There were a number of things that brought us to that decision. One of them was what Danny Mullins said – that he came to be second on Vauban but Honeysuckle put her head down and said: not on your nellie are you going to get past me. And Rachael confirmed that. The mare has still got that fighting spirit.

“I think 99.9% of people believe she’s definitely taken a step back, that she’s not what she was, a few pounds below her best. But Sunday was still an incredible day. It was one of the better days in a strange way, the reception she got everywhere. I think we’d all like to live that once more. We’d like her to have a chance of going out in a blaze of glory at the home of National Hunt racing.”

I hope she does, but it will be no gimme.

State Man utterly controlled the race, though Townend surprised winning trainer Willie Mullins by declaring he planned to make the running when they met in the paddock pre-race. He set a steady pace and, shortly after Honeysuckle stumbled on landing three out, began to wind it up, leaving Blackmore working to keep her mare in a challenging position. But a rangy leap at the next flight saw him quicken away to build a growing advantage.

Having raced keenly and jumped scrappily, Vauban ranged up entering the home turn to press Honeysuckle but the mare fought to maintain her position, crucially getting the superior jump at the last whilst Danny Mullins’ mount went out to his right. Although he rallied to close the gap approaching the line, he was repelled by half a length.

Pied Piper also hung in there on the inside for fourth, posting a career best but probably flattered in his proximity to the principles, whilst stablemate Zanahiyr produced his best effort of the season dropped back to the minimum trip, outpaced and then staying on when it was all over.

A likeably straightforward operator, State Man has now won his last four races in Grade One company and represents the greatest threat to Constitution Hill. He’s open to further progress but needs to find a great deal more to match the level of form achieved by the favourite the last three times he has raced, even including last season’s Supreme.

The Irish Gold Cup was no test of stamina, so those who question whether Galopin Des Champs has the requisite reserves for two and a half furlongs further can still harbour doubts. However, trainer Willie Mullins removed him from the Ryanair at this week’s forfeit stage and has never held a moment’s doubt about the ante-post favourite’s ability to stay the Gold Cup trip. I agree with him.

I’ve been impressed that Galopin Des Champs’ ability has not been becalmed along with his overly exuberant jumping. He now looks much more like the finished article as a stayer, having done well to storm clear by eight lengths off an indifferent pace.

This time last year, I think it likely that Fury Road’s wayward approach to the last – allowed by Davy Russell to drift left across the path of Galopin Des Champs – would have forced an error from Townend’s mount. But he shrugged it off at Leopardstown and left that rival toiling, caught for second by the outpaced but rallying Stattler.

The runner-up would undoubtedly appreciate a stiffer test of stamina and has place claims if the Gold Cup turns out to be a strongly run affair. However, I don’t see Galopin Des Champs failing in either scenario.

Given how the ball was rolling for him, the moment Danny Mullins accepted the ride on Gentleman De Mee we should have guessed the result. Deputising for Mark Walsh – who had suffered damaged vertebrae in a fall just 24 hours after making his comeback from injury – Mullins again triumphed at the chief expense of Paul Townend.

The dodgiest moment came when the winner got in close to the first fence and twisted suddenly left on take-off. Mullins took closer control of Gentleman De Mee’s head on safe landing and it was straightforward from there. Racing keenly in his habitual hood alongside Dunvegan, he was slightly awkward at the next but soon settled into a rhythm, re-joining the leader at the fifth and going on from there.

Perhaps he was revelling in the better ground – although the Tingle Creek surface wasn’t much different – or perhaps Townend’s mount, the 1/4 favourite Blue Lord, was sluggish after his big effort over the same course and distance over Christmas, but it was never really a contest.

The latter had been slowly back into stride at some earlier fences before in effect conceding with a lesser jump two out. Ridden along to get away even from Dunvegan, Blue Lord was never going to catch the winner and Mullins had the luxury of measuring the last before Gentlemen De Mee raced away strongly to the line.

Of course, the winner already holds the notable scalp of Edwardstone when the two clashed at Aintree last April and there were four and a half lengths between them. Although it’s probably unwise to take that form literally, given Edwardstone was at the end of a long and challenging season whereas Gentleman De Mee had been built up slowly to that level, the runner-up was not unrecognisably himself.

Yet whereas Edwardstone has only enhanced his reputation since graduating from novice company, this was the first time Gentleman De Mee has in any way resembled his Aintree self. The latter also has to prove he handles Cheltenham, but he was far too keen when sent off beaten favourite against Galopin Des Champs in the 2021 Martin Pipe, so that’s not a fair measure.

When asked whether Energumene was still Closutton’s number one Champion Chase hope, Danny Mullins had to think about it whereas their trainer was unhesitating in nominating the titleholder. With Editeur Du Gite also lining up at Cheltenham, Gentleman De Mee also won’t be able to boss the race.

El Fabiolo boasts the best form in this division after triumphing in a red-hot edition of the Irish Arkle.

Stablemate Dysart Dynamo performed to type, blowing another race apart just as he did in the Supreme last March. He’s a slick jumper and looks more tractable than he was over hurdles, but he still only has one way one going – that is “exuberant”, as Danny Mullins smilingly called it. He soon had the field well strung out.

The first to crack was Mark Walsh, who candidly blamed himself for a soft-looking unseat when his mount Saint Roi stumbled on landing at the fifth. The pair were already well off the pace, as was the five-year-old Fil Dor, the combination of first-time tongue-tie and cheekpieces failing to enable him to keep up. First-time wings might have helped better.

Visionarian – runner-up to Saint Roi in a course-and-distance Grade One over Christmas – was the next to lose touch, whilst Banbridge was flat to the boards and Flame Bearer, who’d earlier bungled the second, made a mistake at the sixth and would later lose touch with the leaders with a slow jump at the third last.

Four out, El Fabiolo made his only error – getting his wires crossed with rider Daryl Jacob but doing well to negotiate the fence as cleanly as he did. His jumping was much better than his debut on the whole, although it’s worth noting for Cheltenham’s Old Course that he likes to adjust right – not markedly, but that’s his technique. The most taking element was how strongly he travelled, however – and he was back on the bridle after his mistake, racing towards the inside in second.

Turning for the penultimate flight, the winner was moving comfortably on Dysart Dynamo’s heels whereas Paul Townend was nudging Appreciate It to keep up – this trio now clear of the remainder. El Fabiolo was cleaner and quicker through the air than either rival, drawing alongside the leader and moving smoothly into the lead on the home turn.

Having edged right towards the last, a few taps down the shoulder from Daryl Jacob were enough to see him jump it straight and true, and then gallop away for a ten-length success. Dysart Dynamo duelled with Appreciate It in the straight, until they were both passed by Banbridge’s late rally to snatch second by a nose.

It’s no wonder Jacob was exhilarated by his mount’s success, so deep was this race and so exacting its pace. It was impossible to wipe the grin from his face for hours and his account of the race was pure distilled joy and adrenaline.

Afterwards, winning trainer Willie Mullins has keen to point out how inexperienced El Fabiolo had been when there was so little between him and Jonbon at Aintree last April on just his third start over hurdles. It’s certainly shaping up to be an electric re-match and although I prefer Jonbon’s jumping, it hasn’t yet been tested under pressure and at speed like El Fabiolo’s.

It looks likely that both Banbridge and Appreciate It will step up in trip at Cheltenham, with both trainers – Mullins and Joseph O’Brien respectively – leaning towards the Turners. That means I’ve jumped the wrong way with the former – curses. Mullins was looking for an excuse for the 2021 Supreme winner, however, clearly finding it difficult to believe he’d been outpaced at two miles. Perhaps his age is a factor – at nine, he’s three years older than the Irish Arkle winner.

Narrow fourth Dysart Dynamo will doubtless head to Cheltenham next – he’s a Closutton inmate after all – but Aintree’s Maghull Novices’ Chase is surely calling his name.

Later on the same card, the remarkable Final Orders notched up his fifth win in six starts over fences. A relatively humble hurdler, his fencing has been transformational and he dominated an admittedly shallow two-mile handicap field, probably earning his place in the Arkle line-up for trainer Gavin Cromwell. The overall time was almost ten seconds slower than the Irish Arkle, however, even if the rain had exerted some effect.

The following day, Mighty Potter was an emphatic winner of the Ladbrokes Novice Chase (the 2m5f Grade One, formerly the Flogas – grits teeth at having to disambiguate on yet another racecourse’s behalf), sprinting impressively clear of the pack who had been on his heels on the home turn.

His overall time was almost two seconds quicker than winning stablemate The Goffer, carrying 8lb less, over the course-and-distance handicap that followed an hour later – but, having been behind when comparing their relative positions on times within the race until three out, it was Mighty Potter’s finishing surge that differentiated them to that degree.

The Grade One’s pace was nothing special early on but James Du Berlais disappointingly struggled, dropping to fourth with a blunder at the second and then losing further ground when braking into the next. It would be more efficient to note the fences he got right thereafter – the seventh – than list his various frailties. That he was still on the premises on the home turn, after which Jacob did not persist, is probably testament to the pace until not long before that point.

Another of the Mullins-trained quintet (who constituted the entire field bar the winner), Kilcruit, jumped well but frequently to the left and was disadvantaged when Mighty Potter jumped past, cannily hard again his inside, two out. He posed no threat from the home turn and could only plod on for fifth. He needs dropping – definitely in grade and probably in trip, with a positive ride.

I Am Maximus was wisely ridden defensively by Danny Mullins and it resulted in his best effort yet over fences. Kept hard on the inside throughout, so he didn’t go hunting for it at every fence, he looked briefly threatening approaching the last but scrambled over it – as he had done many others – and drifted right towards the field and into the whip. He’s slow away from his fences, must go left-handed and has an ungainly action. However, he also probably hated the lack of cover throughout here – a necessary evil in the circumstances.

I’m taking a reasonably positive view about Gaillard Du Mesnil, albeit I don’t think he’s a Grade One star. The drop back in trip by three furlongs was never going to suit the Irish Grand National third and, having set a steady pace, he was unsurprisingly readily out-speeded by the winner.

He’s not the quickest in and out of his fences, but he was also hampered by stablemate Adamantly Chosen going right at the last and badly checked on landing. Mullins would have been mollified by Townend’s hands-and-heels ride from the back of the last. He rightly remains favourite for the NH Chase, albeit some bookmakers eased him slightly.

Adamantly Chosen was patiently ridden by Brian Hayes and – not for the first time this season – made a move into a quickening pace that might be underestimated. After again jumping right at the last, he had no more to offer when hard ridden. He can win a decent prize at around this trip. Given who trains him, if he has a pulse, he’ll be on the ferry for Cheltenham but I’d prefer to back him in a handicap at Fairyhouse or Punchestown.

But the winner was a different gear – and it was interesting to hear currently sidelined rider Jack Kennedy say as much afterwards, and super-sub Davy Russell indicate he was a powerful motivating factor in his retirement U-turn. Here, Mighty Potter brought him his first Grade One success since his mini-comeback. Winning trainer Gordon Elliott also noted he is “speedier” than his stablemate Gerri Colombe – covered later in this section – who’s more of a stayer.

Russell blamed himself for his mount’s mistake at the sixth – by squeezing and asking “when he was happy popping away” – and suggested he would as comfortable good or softer – “normal National Hunt ground” – but that such things would dictate his distance requirements. He also made mention of his raking stride, which chimed with an additional interesting observation on this subject (among others) from Simon Rowlands in his valuable Attheraces column.

Going into the DRF, I was struggling to shrug from my memory Mighty Potter’s performance in last term’s Supreme when Dysart Dynamo split the race into the A and B team with his headlong pace. This horse was in the second division even before making his race-ending error three out. But if he is a staying chaser in the making, that run becomes less bothersome. I’m now taking him far more seriously as the Turners favourite.

As for The Goffer himself, both Russell and Elliott testified that the 2m5f trip was at the absolute minimum of his stamina requirements, so he might become a live Ultima candidate should he get an entry. That he was able to jump as well as he did, buried in a bunch more experienced handicappers, bodes well for such targets. He had previously been thumped by an aggressively ridden Galia Des Liteaux and her electric jumping in a Grade Two at Warwick.

Elliott had sent Gerri Colombe over to Sandown the previous day for what appeared to be his toughest assignment to date, further complicated by going that was unusually sound for the time of year at that track. Yet he was able to maintain his unbeaten record in the Grade One Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase, despite again shaping as though he’ll do better when upped to three miles.

This race starts with the three tricky Railway Fences and Thunder Rock landed in a heap over the first two of them, dropping to rear. The progressive Balco Coastal then led the field out of the back straight, but already Harry Cobden’s body language hinted all was not well with prominently positioned Monmiral, and Jordan Gainford’s that the sound-jumping winner was also operating at the upper end of his comfort zone initially.

However, Gerri Colombe settled into the race uphill past the stands for the first time and even moved up to press the leaders at the first in the back straight where Balco Coastal jumped markedly out to his left. The winner himself tended to adjust left, as he had done in previous races, but it inconvenienced him little. This pair then began to out-jump Monmiral, especially at the ninth, after which he struggled more explicitly to hold his pitch.

Gerri Colombe got in tight to the final Railway second time around, however, by which Thunder Rock had clambered to the leaders’ heels despite jumping most fences scruffily. Balco Coastal then established a clear lead coming away from the Pond Fence, but when switched left to rally Gerri Colombe found the drag of the straight helping his stamina to kick in. He gamely fought back to jump the last upsides and pull steadily away on landing to win by almost two lengths.

Speaking from Leopardstown afterwards, Elliott suggested he had been considering qualifying Gerri Colombe for the NH Chase but acknowledged he had run out of time and now preferred the Brown Advisory. This was a disconcertingly muted endorsement for the winner, who is yet to try three miles and will surely improve for it.

Gainford was more positive. “He’s a horse that just does enough… I went down to see him this morning when I came [to Sandown] and he was standing at the back of the stable. I don’t think he even looked at me,” he said fondly. “He’s just a very laidback horse.”

Runner-up Balco Coastal emerged with credit but his pace suggests Aintree’s Manifesto Novices’ Chase might be a better target than the Turners. Thunder Rock looked more at home on a right-handed track than when third to The Real Whacker in Cheltenham’s Dipper Novices’ Chase last time but his jumping needs a great deal of improvement. Dipper runner-up Monmiral was just disappointing and is surely better than this.

Up at Wetherby, City Chief benefitted from a positive ride under James Bowen and put in his best round of jumping yet to win a shallow edition of the Grade Two Towton Novices’ Chase. Going to the front from the seventh, he soon had all three rivals on the stretch and although he was chased home by the persistent O’Toole, who’d been niggled along from an early stage, he was always in control.

Both the winner and second will stay further, the former entered only in the NH Chase at Cheltenham so far but perhaps likely to receive an Ultima engagement, too, given owners Jim and Marie Donnelly also have the Willie Mullins-trained Gaillard Du Mesnil and Ramillies for the non-handicaps.

Odds-on favourite Ballygrifincottage – the only runner with a Brown Advisory engagement but unsighted since winning a small-field affair at Haydock in November – was fitted with a first-time tongue-tie and laboured from an early stage, jumping shabbily and losing touch from halfway. He was pulled up and found to have broken a blood vessel.

Now the dust has settled on Facile Vega’s defeat, it looks like Paul Townend got more things right than did Willie Mullins in the immediate aftermath. Whilst Closutton’s stable jockey got embroiled in going a shade too fast upsides High Definition, it still didn’t fully account for him having nothing to offer when his stablemate Il Etait Temps breezed past him entering the home straight.

“Willie had some interesting thoughts after the race and suggested you were getting quite engaged quite early with High Definition. Do you think that contributed to his defeat?” Nick Luck asked the jockey on Racing TV. “Yes, it definitely did,” Townend responded. “But it doesn’t evaluate to getting beat that far… It was obviously too bad to be true.”

Moments after his defeat, Mullins had earlier told Luck: “I think we’ll probably have to ride him like a racehorse rather than a machine the next time – because that’s what Paul did today, he rode him like a machine rather than a racehorse.”

Now, it emerges Facile Vega was lame after the race. “He was quite sore” admitted Mullins, when speaking to Racing TV’s Kevin O’Ryan at Fairyhouse on Wednesday. “He was fine this morning – well, he’s getting better, so I think he’ll be all right.”

Pressed by O’Ryan on what that meant for the best interpretation of his performance last Sunday, given he was “beaten turning out of the back [straight]”, Mullins said: “He was beat jumping the second or third hurdle, I thought… Paul wanted to go on and the other horse wanted to go on, and when you’ve a horse like Facile Vega and he’s taking a pull, he’d be a bit like a freight train – you just can’t stop them. So, even if Paul wanted to go to Plan B, the horse had plan A in his mind and that’s what happened.

“It’s just one of those things and I think Paul will probably take a different approach the next time he rides him. He doesn’t have to make it, doesn’t have to be up there but he was a little afraid the other horse’s [High Definition’s] reputation for jumping wasn’t good enough and he didn’t want to be stuck in behind him… The two of them just were not helping each other and the writing was on the wall, for me, from a long way out. You couldn’t keep that pace up.”

Yet Il Etait Temps wasn’t positioned that race-affectingly far off the pace set by Facile Vega and High Definition, albeit Danny Mullins had taken him further back at the hottest point. It had crossed my mind that Facile Vega’s extravagant action might suggest he’d be better on a softer surface but he dealt with good-to-soft ground when winning Punchestown’s Grade One bumper last April.

It had also been put to me that, as a son of the three-mile hurdling queen Quevega, he’d perhaps gone too fast for his own individual preference but he clocked a strong time, admittedly in softer ground, when comfortably beating the winner over the same course and distance over Christmas. This news that he’d returned unsound is to my mind the key factor in these events.

Whilst Mullins stated during a media visit to his yard on Monday that he hasn’t “contemplated changing” his plans from aiming Facile Vega at the Sky Bet Supreme, it remains possible that the Ballymore becomes the preferred option – as happened with Sir Gerhard 12 months ago, albeit on that occasion his trainer mooted the idea immediately after his Dublin Racing Festival success.

Stable companion Impaire Et Passe would probably have to swap targets, however. On Monday, Mullins also observed of him – an impressive winner of the Moscow Flyer last month – that “he could run over two miles [at Cheltenham], but you’d probably be looking at going further [in the Ballymore].”

“I think at the moment we’re all set to go the way we planned, if the horse recovers from his race yesterday,” Mullins concluded of Facile Vega on Monday. “He had a very, very hard race and it will take a fair bit of recovering from. We’ll need all the time we have.”

Amid all this kerfuffle, Il Etait Temps didn’t get enough love for his nine-and-a-half length Grade One success in the Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle. Perhaps it was because he was beaten by Facile Vega previously, or that he’s a second-season novice because his form regressed after he’d shaped so promisingly in the 2022 Spring Juvenile Hurdle? Whatever, he’s a smart novice himself and now a leading Supreme candidate.

The pace certainly wasn’t too strong for him – he was still characteristically tugging for his head for much of the early journey, but as already mentioned rider Danny Mullins had him settled and opted to take him back off the pace when Rachael Blackmore on eventual second Inthepocket ranged closer to the lead just before the fourth hurdle, where High Definition departed. That horse had, as at Christmas, jumped right and knuckled on landing from a mistake, unseating JJ Slevin.

Lawlors Of Naas runner-up Irish Point did find the pace too rich, however – detached and niggled along by Davy Russell from before the second flight. He also made a series of errors in the second half before also mildly rallying from the last, having been crowded by the loose horse, to get past Facile Vega for fourth. He needs to go up in trip and/or down in grade.

Third Dark Raven acquitted himself well on just his second start over hurdles, untidy jumping seeing him fall a shade behind early before working back into the race before the field bypassed the penultimate flight due to the glaring low sun. By holding his position until the last, he forced Inthepocket to be shuffled back and have to switch but couldn’t hold off that rival for second place.

But the winner was long gone, unleashed by Mullins approaching the last and then drawing further clear on the other side. His trainer was focussed on his jumping in the aftermath, conscious that one mistake in the Supreme can knock you out contention. He’d made a mistake at the first and guessed a little at the sixth, but was otherwise impressive.

Stablemate Gaelic Warrior shrugged off a raised mark of 143 to win the following two-mile handicap over the same course and distance, despite jumping increasingly out to his right – a familiar habit and particularly marked at the final flight. He was raised 10lb by the Irish handicapper for this effort but looks bound for the Grade One Ballymore next anyway. He covered the same stretch of ground in an overall time slower than Facile Vega.

Targets at Fairyhouse or Punchestown would surely be more suitable than the turning left-handed Old Course at Cheltenham, though Townend suggested the Closutton team could work on his jumping at home prior to the Festival. His habit looks ingrained, however, and is likely to render him vulnerable at the highest level when racing left-handed.

The Ballymore is unambiguously Good Land’s Festival target as even before his authoritative success in Saturday’s opening Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle, it was his sole engagement at the meeting. City-boy-turned-trainer Barry Connell now holds the notable distinction of having leading candidates for two of Cheltenham’s three Grade One novice hurdles, with Royal Bond winner Marine Nationale also headed for the Supreme.

Upwardly mobile conditional rider Michael O’Sullivan rode Good Land with great judgment, never helping__ Weveallbeencaught__ with front-running duties but in effect controlling the race from a prominent position. He took up the running with a good jump at the second last and didn’t look likely to be overhauled after benefitting from the run of the race.

Improving Sandor Clegane had been the first to attempt a challenge, quickening with the winner two out but already held and under pressure approaching the last, which he negotiated quite upright. He’d been free and seen a lot of daylight in the early stages. Absolute Notions offered the strongest and final dissent, picking up from further back and inching closer from the last. He’s a serious Albert Bartlett candidate on this evidence and is available at 12/1.

Cool Survivor, who probably jumped the least well, clearly needs to return to three miles as he made inexorable progress from a flat-footed landing at the second last to narrowly deny Deep Cave for fourth, that horse having also jumped scrappily and been determined to hang right in the straight. Those five finished a long way clear of the remainder.

Grangeclare West, who was reported this week to have returned lame, was the first beaten after three out whilst stablemate Quais De Paris – well fancied after an unimpressive success at Tramore but a drifter near the off – was reported by Townend to have weakened quickly. He’s thought to be too weak for his frame just yet. Sam Twiston-Davies also stated that Wevebeencaughtout stopped quickly, whilst the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board also reported that he’d returned with “a small skin wound on his left-fore fetlock”.

At Sandown that same day, Chasing Fire registered a third success over hurdles with a smooth six-length defeat of previous wide-margin Taunton winner Iliko D’Olivati. He jumped well and then, shaken up by Aidan Coleman entering the straight, moved into command between the final two flights. He edged to his right and jumped big in that direction at the last but ran on strongly for an impressive victory, conceding 4lb to the runner-up and more to most of the remainder.

He's entered in the Supreme but shapes as though Liverpool’s 2m4f Mersey Novices’ Hurdle might be just the ticket. Trainer Olly Murphy wasn’t necessarily sold on the Festival. “Could he win a Supreme? I’ve had a second and third but never the winner,” he said. “I’m not too bothered about taking on any of the other two-mile novices we’ve got in Britain, although the horse who won the Tolworth [the Paul Nicholls-trained Tahmuras] here is obviously good.

“If he didn’t go to Cheltenham, he would be all but favourite for a Grade One at Aintree and that would be the Gold Cup of his novice-hurdle career,” he said. “Whatever he does this season, he is going to be a very good chaser next season. I’ve only been training for five years and never had a champion but I hope this one can be good.”

After winning her latest two starts over hurdles, Liberty Dance was just 7/2 to land the opening 22-runner mares’ handicap hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday. The horse forever enshrined in racing-quiz history as Davy Russell’s abortive final ride (one for you @SecondMentions) travelled smoothly in the rear of mid-division but could only inch steadily closer in fourth after getting outpaced on entering the straight.

This was nonetheless further improvement and she wasn’t best positioned given the first three home, led by lightly-weighted Ballybawn Belter, were nominally always towards the fore. Nominally, because runner-up Historique Reconce was actually shuffled back from a prominent pitch to the nose of Liberty Dance rounding the bypassed penultimate hurdle and checked more than once between there and the straight. She was then squeezed out at the last by the winner drifting left on her outer and the third, maiden Banntown Girl, holding her ground on her inside.

Historique Reconce then did well to rally for a second time to grab second. She’d previously been a comfortable winner of a mares’ hurdle in Tramore last August on her debut for Willie Mullins after showing little to nor form for Emmanuel Clayeux in France. She’s also a half-sister to former top-notch two-mile chaser Chacun Pour Soi and is very much a horse to follow, wherever she goes next. She currently holds no entries.

I’d mark up Liberty Dance, too, as she’ll surely do better with an end-to-end gallop, but she lacks the runner-up’s turn of foot on this evidence. The juvenile Risk Belle, stablemate to the runner-up, was sent off favourite at 5/2 after being too far back in a steadily run Grade Two behind Lossiemouth over Christmas. However, she took a purler of a fall – as did her rider Mark Walsh, who’d frustratingly only returned from injury the previous day – at the fifth hurdle.

The Spring Juvenile generated further variance between Mullins and Townend at the Dublin Racing Festival, when the trainer suggested his jockey shouldn’t have tried so hard to recover the race when Lossiemouth was shuffled out of a challenging position by her weakening stablemate Jourdefete, carrying the second colours of their mutual owner Rich Ricci. Hard though Townend tried, he couldn’t reach Danny Mullins on stablemate Gala Marceau.

“I just hope it doesn’t leave its mark that she had such a hard run from the third last home – she put in a huge effort for a four-year-old filly, for a juvenile, that might just leave a mark. That’s what I’m really worried about,” Mullins said of Lossiemouth. “I’d have been happier if Paul maybe had just [ridden] hands and heels… The writing was on the wall. So, what was the point in hitting her?”

Yet under the Rules of Racing, it is prohibited for a rider to do anything other than try to win – albeit that does not mean the whip is obligatory. Townend was on the 1/3 favourite in a Grade One, who was little more than three lengths behind the winner after suffering the interference after three out and was still going well.

“He has to have a go to try and win,” Mullins agreed, when I started to put the counter argument to him. “But to me, unless Danny made a mistake at the last, he wasn’t going to get to that one.”

Mullins was the architect of his own downfall, supplying six of the eight runners – albeit the race would have been sparse without his contribution – and trouble had been brewing from a long way out. At the fourth flight, Jourdefete jumped right and free-going Gala Marceau had briefly nosing up her inside until Danny Mullins hauled her back and around to the right. In doing so, however, she began to over-race again.

At the fourth last, Jourdefete was showing signs of struggling to hold her pitch and at the next she was paddling to the extent that Lossiemouth jumped into the back her. Danny Mullins seized the advantage on Gala Marceau, moving ahead with the Mullins-trained Irish debutant Cinsa and permitting no time or space for the favourite to recover.

Townend took evasive action back and around the entire field but did not hastily make up ground once clear, hoping to give his mount time to work back into the race. But Gala Marceau already held the advantage, jumping to the front two out whilst Lossiemouth bungled it in catch-up mode. The latter was then pushed wide on the bend when another stable companion, Gust Of Wind, lurched right and created a knock-on domino effect with Ascending on Townend’s inner.

Tekao, another Mullins runner, quickened with Gala Marceau entering the straight but rider Mark Walsh was soon shuffling along in second and Lossiemouth soon surged past to give chase. She received two well-spaced reminders after the last but couldn’t reach the winner.

The winning trainer acknowledged Gala Marceau had improved since her promising debut for him over the same course-and-distance, when following Lossiemouth home in a slowly run affair. She’d received 3lb from her more vaunted stablemate on that occasion and had clearly improved more here than mere track position granted her.

Whilst the favourite was undoubtedly unlucky, the disparity in their respective prices – 7/4 and 5/1 – is too great, albeit Gala Marceau will need to channel her energy more conservatively for the stiff test of the Triumph. She was just as gassy here as she had been on seasonal debut.

Third-placed Tekao, wearing a first-time hood to pacify his keen streak, was ridden conservatively once held and it was therefore no surprise to hear him considered a Boodles Fred Winter type by his connections, for which he is now the best-priced 6/1 favourite even before the entries are published, let alone the weights.

Paul Nicholls despatched Afadil to Musselburgh that same day for the Scottish Triumph Hurdle. He delivered a much more switched-on performance than his naïve Taunton debut, winning by a narrower margin than his superiority merited in a steadily run race. He received a bump from Fils De Roi after the last and then nudged him right when quelling that challenge.

Front-running The Churchill Lad then rallied to deny Fils De Roi of second, suggesting that he’d have benefitted from setting a stronger pace.

Advised 01/12/22: Noble Yeats at 66/1 for the Boodles Gold Cup with William Hill

Advised 19/01/23: Corbetts Cross at 25/1 for the Albert Bartlett with Coral or Ladbrokes

Advised 01/12/22: Ahoy Senor at 25/1 for the Boodles Gold Cup with various bookmakers

Advised 14/12/22: Hiddenvalley Lake at 8/1 for the Albert Bartlett with Bet365 or William Hill

Advised 05/01/23: The Real Whacker at 12/1 for the Brown Advisory with Paddy Power or Coral

Advised 19/01/23: Impaire Et Passe at 6/1 for the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle with various firms

Advised 26/01/23: Banbridge each-way at 20/1 for the Sporting Life Arkle with various firms