Richard Hoiles' top tips for Tuesday: Wolf can land the hat-trick at Exeter

With Cheltenham looming large on the horizon, now is a chance to pull together the various strands from the last few pieces to help formulate the strategies for next week.

Starting with the publication of the weights for the handicaps, which is where the majority of my personal betting involvement will be, the key points here are always how the Irish horses have been treated by the UK handicapper and where the likely cut off points will be as regards getting a run.

As usual, it was a mix of positives and negatives.

The main positive being that NotwhatIam looks virtually certain to make the cut for the Pertemps Final off 135. With a maximum field of 24, the cut off looks like being the lowest for several seasons and currently joint 27th, NotwhatIam looks as if he is going to have the opportunity to confirm the promise of his run at Warwick.

As stated previously, you are always vulnerable to a horse from an Irish qualifier well ahead of its mark (Presenting Percy for example!) but hopefully NotwhatIam will line up on the day at about half the 33-1 recommended in January.

The negative - and showing the importance of Non-Runner No Bet as a safety net - was the news Ivanovitch Gorbatov will not be running at the Festival having been allocated a mark 8lb higher than his Irish one.

It seems the UK handicapper has been particularly penal on those who ran in the Ladbrokes Hurdle at Leopardstown in February and, as a result, Jezki will not be coming either.

Suffice to say enough Festival handicaps have gone to Irish raiders to suggest they are not overly burdened as a whole, but it is understandable those raised well above their Irish marks may be better off waiting for domestic prizes.

Interestingly, there was no mention of any worry about another JP horse, Early Doors, who is on the ceiling mark of 145 in the Martin Pipe.

Of the others, Benatar still appeals in the Plate, as does Bouvreuil in the Grand Annual for trainer Ben Haslam who continues in good form.

I am slightly less positive about Coo Star Sivola in the Ultima as a more in-depth examination of the race throws up other likely candidates in Noble Endeavor and even old rascal Singlefarmpayment making it look one of the tougher heats of the week.

With regards to an earlier piece on riders who excel in Grade One races where Harry Cobden and Nico de Boinville topped the list, I promised to show which riders had good and bad Festival records.

Sample sizes are small so there is a higher margin for error, but over the last ten years, those who have had three winners or more who have the best Actual/Expected’s - thereby taking into account the SP of their mounts - are:

Jamie Codd 7/27 (A/E 2.36)

Davy Russell 18/119 (A/E 2.30)

Jack Kennedy 5/22 (A/E 2.08)

By contrast, those with the most concerning records from all jockeys with more than 30 Festival rides in the last decade are :

David Mullins 0/39 and Danny Mullins 0/31 (A/E 0.00)

Aidan Coleman 1/113 (A/E 0.23)

Daryl Jacob 2/93 (A/E 0.37)

The latter pair especially have some high-profile mounts which provides food for thought.

Selections for Tuesday kick off with:

Very lightly-raced for his age, Spring Wolf can land the hat-trick here as long as he can see out three miles.

Since moving to Robert Walford off a long absence, he has really found his feet and, in the colours of his former trainer, can extend his winning sequence.

Should also land the hat-trick after proving too strong for subsequent winner Quantum Of Solace at Market Rasen last time showing plenty of tenacity in the finish.

Fences seem to have been the making of her and she may show too much resolution than a few less than hearty opponents.

Did not produce the goods last time after being forced to cover extra ground round the home turn at Kempton.

A return to the scene of his course and distance win the time before can pay dividends off just a 1lb higher mark.

Will need to ensure he doesn’t blow the start from his inside draw but remains in form and would have gone close last time when badly stopped in his run.

There is always an element of risk in getting the breaks in these sprint handicaps, but he remains well enough treated and goes well at the trip and track.