RaceiQ clues for the All-Weather Championship Finals

Duke Of Oxford has finished second and fourth in the past two editions of this race but arrives better than ever and is fancied to make it third time lucky. The general 13-2 available offers an each-way safety blanket.

He was impressive when winning the “Trial” for this contest in mid-January, making it eight wins from 20 starts on the all-weather in the process.

It was a well-run race but that did not stop the six-year-old clocking 11.33sec in the 14th furlong (the fastest furlong of the contest) and he followed that up by hitting 40mph in the penultimate furlong. No other runner managed to hit that speed at any stage.

RaceiQ assessed the race as “fast” with his Time Index being 8 out of 10, when the meeting average was 6.4. He had been similarly strong at the finish when scooping a valuable prize at Kempton on his previous start.

The second and third in that Newcastle race have franked the form with subsequent wins. In addition, Hector Crouch boasts five wins from eight starts on the gelding and his A/E at Newcastle (Actual over Expected) in 1.5 (anything above 1 is a positive). And Michael Bell has had seven runners since mid-March and won with five of them.

Beylerbeyi, winner of the Cesarewitch last season, rates the obvious threat, having been running well over much shorter distances this year. However, his hold-up style demands a bit of good fortune and Duke Of Oxford seems likely to get first run on him. 

The John & Thady Gosden-trained four-year-old must concede weight all round but can prove equal to the task.

He’s got his career back on track this winter, having been gelded and had a wind operation, and again did little wrong when beaten a neck in the Winter Derby over ten furlongs at Lingfield last time. The slow early tempo almost certainly did not play to his strengths but, on the plus side, the assessor eased him 2lb in the ratings for that defeat.

Chancellor had previously won a well-run Listed affair over a mile at Southwell in a “fast race” where the Time Index was 7.3, compared to the meeting average of 5.2. Moreover, Rab Havlin said afterwards his partner was still babyish and “half dropped a gear on me”.

The Gosdens clearly believe there is a bit more under the bonnet as they are popping first-time cheekpieces on the general 6-1 chance. A decent tempo is on the cards, which will suit him, and Team Gosden have had nine winners from 16 runners at this track in the past year, exceeding expectations (their A/E at the track is 1.59).

This Listed prize looks open but it’s surprising to see Jel Pepper chalked up as big as 15-2.

He ran well in several fast-run races as a two-year-old last term, including when signing off with victory in the £150,000 Tattersalls October Auction Stakes at Newmarket.

The gelding was stepping up to 7f for the first time that day, but he was ridden aggressively from the front and fended off the progressive Half Sovereign (raced on the opposite side) and 24 other rivals in taking style.

RaceiQ had him winning in a time 2.74sec quicker than Par, and he earned a Time Index of 9.5 when the meeting average was 8.1. In other words, he didn’t just boss a steadily run race.

Runners that day were carried along by a strong breeze, but it would still be folly to knock Jel Pepper’s performance. The change in tactics seemed to suit a horse who had been a good third to Zavateri in the July Stakes at Newmarket earlier in the year.

He has to prove his stamina for a mile, but he ended up winning with something to spare at Headquarters and, in any case, there is no guarantee this will be run at end-to-end gallop.