QIPCO 2000 Guineas: runner-by-runner guide and verdict

There will be no fairytale Royal winner of the QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday. Slipofthepen, bred by the late Queen and owned by the King, had been quoted at 20-1 for the first Classic of the season after winning his first two starts at Kempton but did not figure among Monday’s confirmations.

The King will still be represented at Headquarters, with his Saga entered in the nine-furlong handicap at 3.25pm. Other runners in the £100,000 race include King Of Conquest and Majestic.

It’s one of racing’s great anomalies that John Gosden, the trainer of Slipofthepen and Saga, has not trained a 2000 Guineas winner. Even the brilliant Kingman couldn’t break his duck – beaten by Night Of Thunder after he had trounced that rival in the Greenham.

Gosden’s elusive quest will go on for at least another year as he and his son, Thady, will now not be represented. By contrast, Aidan O’Brien has landed the race a record ten times and again has two top contenders in Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear. Ryan Moore seems sure to ride the former.

O’Brien is a creature of habit, with all his previous winners of the race making their seasonal reappearances. Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear will also be having their comeback runs. Several of the others will also be returning to the fray, adding intrigue to what is already a fascinating renewal.

Below is a guide to all the potential runners plus separate notes on trainer form (stats correct after racing on May 1). After a mainly cold and wet spring, it's been a challenging time for yards, and not all have hit the deck running.

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 133p. Best odds: 2-1 fav.

I’m no expert on French sculptors but a quick bit of googling led me to understand that Auguste Rodin was famous for many things, including not always finishing what he had started. Will Auguste Rodin, the equine version, follow suit, or will he keep on carving out big-race wins; perhaps even getting a statue of himself at Ballydoyle by winning the Triple Crown?

The son of Japanese superstar Deep Impact out of Galileo mare Rhododendron (herself a sister of Magical) is certainly bred to be something out of the ordinary and he signed off last season by landing the KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown (a race that O’Brien usually favours for aspirant Derby contenders) and then the Vertem Futurity over a mile in the mud at Doncaster. The ground was bottomless and the runners were spread all over the track at Town Moor so whether that’s a gauge as to whether Auguste Rodin has what it takes to win a Guineas is questionable. Everything was decelerating by the finish at Doncaster, including the winner, whose closing two-furlong sectional was a pedestrian 28.45sec. They may well be clocking under 24 seconds in the final quarter-mile at Newmarket on Saturday provided the ground is on the good side.

I’m sure Auguste Rodin is a potentially top-class colt but his performances last season, coupled with his pedigree, suggest that we won’t see the best of him until he tackles middle distances. His connections will certainly not be grumbling if there is rain on Friday and Saturday, bringing his undoubted stamina reserves into play. Bet365 quote him at 20-1 to achieve the Triple Crown. If you like him for the Guineas, then consider having a play at those odds. This will probably be the toughest leg for him.

Stable Watch (stats correct after racing on May 1): With 20 winners from 61 runners since March (and another 16 being runner-up), there is no need to worry about the form of the O'Brien runners. You'd be showing a profit of £16.84 to a £1 stake had you backed them all blind.

Trainer: Andrew Balding. Timeform rating: 130. Odds: 6-1.

Will The Frankie Farewell Tour include a fourth win in the 2000 Guineas? Dettori has previously won the first Classic of the season aboard Mark Of Esteem (1996), Island Sands (1999) and Galileo Gold (2016) – none of them being shorter than 8-1. Chaldean achieved much more than that trio as a two-year-old, reeling off successive wins in the Acomb Stakes, Champagne Stakes and Dewhurst. He showed a terrific attitude, plus versatility regards ground and tactics.

On the minus side, he only got a few yards out of the gates when parting company with Dettori in the Greenham on his return. He came to no harm running loose but it was hardly an ideal prep, plus he had been worryingly weak in the betting beforehand with keen paddock watchers observing the colt had not grown much since last year.

Frankel has clearly blessed Chaldean with some stamina reserves but the speedy female line of his pedigree (his dam’s five other offspring have all been at their best at up to 7f on the Flat) does raise a question mark about his ability to see out a truly-run mile, especially away from quick ground. He dictated a steady gallop when landing the Champagne Stakes and Royal Scotsman would have nabbed him in another couple of strides in the Dewhurst.

Stable Watch: With 22 winners from 104 runners since March, Balding backers won't be fretting.

Trainer: Roger Varian. Timeform rating: 119p. Odds: 50-1.

The last grey to win was Mystiko in 1991, a name that instantly conjures happy memories of Clive Brittain and strange victory jigs in the winner’s enclosure. Clearly, we are overdue something from the silver brigade taking the spoils (not to mention some celebratory dancing) but I’m not sure Charyn is the one to end their barren run. He’s likeable enough, but he was a well-held third behind his stablemate, Sakheer, in the Mill Reef and was no match for Isaac Shelby on his return in the Greenham. In between, he scrambled home in a Group Two event in France.

Stable Watch: With just six winners from 50 runners since March, this has been Varian's slowest start to a season since 2015 when he will have had fewer horses (6 wins from 42 runners). He's had 24 runners since his last winner, on April 12. However, he's had plenty hit the post in this period (8 seconds), so I wouldn't panic too much.

Trainer: Charlie Johnston. Timeform rating: 124. Odds: 40-1.

He was a relatively cheap buy as a yearling but has proved a shrewd purchase, winning the Group One Criterium De Saint-Cloud in the autumn after finishing runner-up in a muddling Royal Lodge over the Guineas course and distance the previous month. The son of Roaring Lion has more on his plate here and you’d imagine a mile being a minimum for him this term. Likely to be up with the pace from the start. One of several in this field also engaged in the Derby.

Stable Watch: As usual, no shortage of runners (145) from this yard, with 21 winning. It's been business as usual since Charlie went solo.

Trainer: Karl Burke. Timeform rating: 117p. Odds: 50-1.

It’s not just Aidan O’Brien who has multiple runners on Saturday. Karl Burke also has a trio to juggle, starting with this fellow. He’s shown useful form, improving with each of his three runs, without suggesting he’s anything like a Classic winner in waiting. Mind you, we all said the same about his sire, Night Of Thunder, in 2014, and he prevailed at 40-1.

Stable Watch: Burke got off to a sluggish but a flurry of winners between April 17 and April 22 will have settled nerves.

Trainer: Charles Hills. Timeform rating: 114. Odds: 100-1.

Quiz question: which Guineas runner has won his connections the most prize money? Give yourself a pat on the back if you said Galeron (even if there was a clue that we asked the question in the segment allocated to him). He won Aura (Gas) Holding Ltd a whopping £550,000 last year, more than Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear put together. Galeron scooped most of that by landing the Goffs Million at The Curragh in September but his prospects of banking more cash here looks remote. His form doesn’t measure up and you would fancy his most lucrative days may already be behind him. But given he cost a fraction of what he’s already won, anything extra from now is a bonus.

Stable Watch: Eleven winners from 45 runners since March will have more than satisfied Hills that his team is well enough forward.

Trainer: Kevin Ryan. Timeform rating: 100p. Odds: 80-1.

It was 16 years ago that his dam, Majestic Roi, carried the Rabbah Bloodstock silks to a surprise victory in the Group One Sun Chariot after earlier defeats in lesser company. Hi Royal now seeks to do similar but his fourth to Majestic Pride on his return at the Craven meeting suggests he has a mountain to climb. Charlie Appleby instantly said the winner was not up to Guineas standard and is running him in a Listed race this weekend. Hi Royal has an official rating of 91, which is 33lb lower than Little Big Bear.

Stable Watch: A quiet start for Ryan, with 6 winners from 59 runners. However, his horses have been running pretty much to form.

Trainer: Karl Burke. Timeform rating: 120. Odds: 25-1.

He became the first newcomer to win at the Royal Ascot since 1996 when pouncing from well off the pace to win the Chesham at 40-1 last summer. That was no fluke, though, as he subsequently ran well in four Group contests, albeit without being able to land any of them. He traded odds-on in-running in three of those races and I kept finding excuses for his defeats – including when third to Auguste Rodin in the Vertem Futurity when equipped with a visor. The Ulysses colt tanked through most of his races last term and he finished in and around some of the best of his generation. He makes most appeal of those trading at fancy odds.

Stable Watch: See Flight Plan.

Trainer: Karl Burke. Timeform rating: 119. Odds: 18-1.

There was a time when winners of the Craven would routinely go on to follow up in the Guineas but you have to go back to Haafhd, in 2004, to find the last to do the double. The Craven that Indestructible won last month, when equipped with cheekpieces having had a wind op, lacked some depth, especially with Mysterious Night, the favourite, running well below par. However, you can only beat what is put in front of you and he was a decent two-year-old, making Chaldean dig deep in the Acomb before also chasing him home in the Champagne Stakes when unsuited by the run of the race. We know he’s fit and in form, we know the course and distance holds no fears; and we also know Karl Burke reckons he will come on for his comeback run. It’s not hard to see him giving a good account but I’ll be surprised if he really is as his name suggests.

Stable Watch: See Flight Plan.

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 138p. Odds: 9-2.

He was crowned Europe’s champion two-year-old, with a rating of 124, but how far will he stay? It was his pace which made him so potent last year, with the highlight of his four wins over 5f/6f being his runaway success in the Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh in early August. Aidan O’Brien was talking about supplementing him for the Nunthorpe after that success, but he missed the rest of the season with a foot injury (caused when he kicked a wall before that Curragh win).

The fact that O’Brien even mentioned the York race tells you all need to know about the powerful Little Big Bear, who looks cast very much in the mould of his sire, No Nay Never, who pulled off the Norfolk Stakes/Prix Morny double before fluffing his lines over further on his return the following season and reverting to sprinting.

Plenty will point to several of Little Big Bear’s siblings staying a mile and much further, but they were cut from a different cloth; most of them starting out over a mile or further in the first instance. Ryan Moore is going to ride Auguste Rodin. Can the horse he rejects be just as effective over a mile? No. Nay. Never. A champion sprinter? Yes. Yeah. Certainly.

Stable Watch: See Auguste Rodin.

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Timeform rating: 131p. Odds: 14-1.

Charlie Appleby saddled the first two home last year and has prospects of repeating the trick via Noble Style and Silver Knott, although this pair don’t have quite the same wow factor as Coroebus and Native Trail did 12 months ago. Noble Style is the one runner on Saturday with a flawless record – making a good impression with each of his victories at Ascot, Newmarket and York at up to 6f; latterly when landing the Gimcrack at York (form that has worked out well). We are all somewhat in the dark as to whether he will be so effective over a mile. His sire, Kingman, was outstanding over the trip but the female side of his pedigree is all about speed. In addition, his recent racecourse gallop at Newmarket’s Craven meeting seemed laboured, for all Appleby expressed satisfaction afterwards. William Buick has rejected him to ride Silver Knott, so James Doyle rides. Last year, Buick chose wrong and Doyle benefited.

Stable Watch: The champion trainer has picked up from where he left off, with 12 winners from 35 runners in April giving him a 30 per cent strike-rate during the month.

Trainer: Paul & Oliver Cole. Timeform rating: 130. Odds: 8-1.

The vibes from Wantage have been strong for a colt who looked every inch a possible Guineas winner when beaten a head by Chaldean in the Dewhurst at Newmarket in October after finishing with a flourish. He was in front a couple of strides after the finish that day and a mile should be within his compass, even if his entry in the Derby looks ambitious in terms of stamina.

Royal Scotsman had earlier impressed when winning the Richmond Stakes, having also dazzled when losing his maiden tag at the same track (get him in your Tracker for the Sussex Stakes). He was also from disgraced when third in a strong edition of the Coventry. Forget his run in the Gimcrack at York in August – he wasn’t right that day – and forgive his debut defeat when needing the experience. Incidentally, his sire, Gleneagles, the Guineas winner in 2015, also ran six times as a juvenile; plus was also beaten first time out and placed in Group One company on his final start.

Stable Watch: The trail has gone cold for the Coles since the odds-on She's Hot won at Wolverhampton October 29. Since then, they've had 34 runners without another success. However, those stats mask the fact that 5 of their past 19 runners have finished second, at odds ranging between 15-2 and 28-1. They've only had four runners on turf, with two of those beaten about a length at double-figure odds. So don't get too hung up on their lean patch.

Trainer: Roger Varian. Timeform rating: 127p. Odds: 7-1.

He looked a bit special when winning his maiden at Haydock by six lengths and confirmed that impression when taking the Mill Reef Stakes in commanding style at Newbury 16 days later. There’s substance to that latter win, too, with his stablemate, Charyn, who finished third, going on to land a Group Two contest in France and finish second in the Greenham. I also like the way Sakheer glided through his racecourse gallop at Newmarket during the Craven Meeting – much as Coroebus did before he won the opening Classic last year.

The big niggle with Sakheer is that he is unproven beyond 6f and he has looked tremendously speedy, with his victories last year being achieved in steadily-run races (he has no meaningful speedfigure to his name). His relaxed nature is a positive in terms of staying further but his breeding sends mixed messages. Yes, he has siblings who have stayed a mile and further. But equally his half-sister, Mummy Bear, was at her best over 6f. His general price of about 7-1 looks about right. It reflects that he has a lot of ability but also question marks about his stamina. This is something of a shot to nothing. He’s 10-1 for the Commonwealth Cup.

Stable Watch: See Charyn.

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Timeform rating: 127. Odds: 14-1.

Last, but certainly not least. For a horse with a middle-distance pedigree, he fared well over 7f/ a mile last season with the promise of more to come this term. His only defeats in five starts came when third to Chaldean in the Champagne Stakes (when apparently unsuited by the softish ground) and when desperately unlucky to be beaten a nose in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Before that near miss in America, he had shown a willing attitude to defy a 3lb penalty in the Autumn Stakes over course and distance despite racing widest of the principals. That form is rock solid with Epictetus (subsequently second in the Vertem Futurity and a winner at Epsom this term), Holloway Boy (numerous previous good efforts), Dancing Magic (third in the Craven) and Killybeg Warrior (close third in the Feilden Stakes) being the next four home. Easy going would be a niggle after what occurred at Doncaster but he is actually bred to relish testing conditions. Perhaps he just lacked the maturity/strength to cope with it on that occasion, or simply had an off day. We all have them.

Stable Watch: See Noble Style.

Front-running Dubai Mile (stall 6) seems sure to give them all a tow, with and Chaldean (3) also likely to be in the thick of the early action. Expect them to head up the middle of the track.

I’d imagine Charyn (14), Indestructible (9) and Little Big Bear (13) being prominent, although Wayne Lordan, on Little Big Bear, will be anxious not show the speedy Little Big Bear too much daylight.

Auguste Rodin (12), Sakheer (10) and Flight Plan (1) might well race in mid-division, with the rest held up to various degrees, hoping the leaders go off overly fast.

SILVER KNOTT looks a solid each-way play at the 12-1 on offer. Bar his blip in the Champagne Stakes, he was difficult to fault last year, and he probably didn’t get all the credit he deserved when defying a penalty in the Autumn Stakes over course and distance in October. He was subsequently most unfortunate not to win at the Breeders’ Cup and looked on good terms with himself when brushing aside Victory Dance (himself a decent juvenile) in a racecourse workout at Newmarket last month. Auguste Rodin commands plenty of respect but looks short enough in the betting. Holloway Boy is a big price to make the frame.

Predicted finishing order: 1 SILVER KNOTT. 2 HOLLOWAY BOY. 3 AUGUSTE RODIN. 4. ROYAL SCOTSMAN. 5 CHALDEAN. 6 SAKHEER. 7 INDESTRUCTIBLE. 8 LITTLE BIG BEAR. 9 CHARYN. 10 NOBLE STYLE. 11 DUBAI MILE. 12 FLIGHT PLAN. 13 HI ROYAL. 14 GALERON.