Qatar Sussex Stakes: full guide and predicted finishing order

It seems there are two certainties at Goodwood on Wednesday: wind and rain. Plenty will tell you that a third will be Paddington landing the £1 million Qatar Sussex Stakes.

He arrives on a roll and is a general 1-2 favourite to reel off a fourth Group One success in two months. His five rivals are all up against it to judge by the ratings, with Inspiral the only one among them to have also won at the highest level.

Since 2008, there have been nine odds-on favourites for the race and seven have obliged, with the exceptions being Dawn Approach and Ribchester, who both had to settle for second.

Aidan O’Brien, the trainer of Paddington, is seeking a sixth winner of the race, although he’d had a lean time in the past decade. He’s had 15 runners during that time with The Gurkha, a narrow winner in 2016, being his only victor.

Here’s a guide to all six runners and a prediction as to where each will finish.

Trainer: William Haggas. Timeform rating: 124. Odds: 12-1.

Well served by testing ground, so it’s a case of the more rain the better for him. Ended 2021 on the up and won on his return the following year, but he was then absent for 14 months and has not been at his best this term, being a beaten favourite on each occasion. Put firmly in his place by Master Of The Seas in the Summer Mile at Ascot last time, when getting weight on ground that was in his favour, and will need plenty more if he’s to hit emulate Baeed, who struck for the same team 12 months ago.

Trainer: Richard Hannon. Timeform rating: 123. Odds: 33-1.

He’s the only one of this sextet to have made the running, so there is the prospect of him getting an easy lead. However, the five-year-old has run in nine Group One races without getting his head in front and is clearly vulnerable at this level. Beat one home in last year’s edition and disappointed in the Queen Anne on his latest start, with fast ground also seeming important to him.

Trainer: Jerome Reynier. Timeform rating: 121. Odds: 20-1.

The French challenger chalked up five wins last term, signing off with a decisive defeat of Tribalist (winner of each of his three Group assignments this term) in a pattern contest over a mile on heavy going at Saint-Cloud. The gelded son of Ribchester has failed to add to his tally in three starts this term but he was a big eye-catcher in the Group One Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp last time, when a close third to Anmaat despite pulling far hard for the majority of the race. Provided Facteur Cheval settles better, he is a big price to avenge the surprise defeat that Ribchester suffered in this race in 2017.

Trainer: John & Thady Gosden. Timeform rating: 130. Odds: 4-1.

She was the outstanding two-year-old filly in 2021, when unbeaten in four starts, and began 2022 with a dazzling success in the Coronation Stakes. However, it’s been something of a mix bag from the daughter of Frankel since then, with her only subsequent top-level win coming when scrambling home from Light Infantry and Erevann in the Jacques le Marois. Her connections blamed lack of match fitness for her narrow defeat on her return in the Queen Anne last month, but it was still disappointing she couldn’t repel the unheralded Triple Time. This demands more.

Trainer: Roger Varian. Timeform rating: 121. Odds: 40-1.

He was a Group Two winner in France on softish ground as a juvenile and has twice made the frame in Group One company this term – when fourth in the Irish 2000 Guineas and third in the St James’s Palace. The only problem, in terms of him winning here, is that he has finished a respectful distance behind Paddington each time. And while that horse has gone to more glory in the Eclipse, he has fluffed his lines dropped to 7f in the Prix Jean Prat. Reverting to a mile should suit but a supporting role looks the best he can hope for.

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Timeform rating: 135p. Odds: 1-2 fav.

Successive wins in the Irish 2000 Guineas, St James’s Palace Stakes and Coral-Eclipse have evoked memories of another star from Ballydoyle, Giants Causeway, who shone in 2000, but you don’t have to go back that far as The Gurkha had been similarly busy at the highest level (though not quite so successful) before his Sussex Stakes triumph in 2016. His schedule is a niggle although, equally, you can argue he’s thriving on it. A muddling renewal that develops into something of a sprint is more of a worry than the potentially soft ground. It’s slightly surprising that he has no pacemaker to take out the possibility of a dawdle out of the equation.

This revolves around Paddington, who holds outstanding form claims, but a potentially muddling race on testing ground could make it more a level playing field. At the odds on offer, it may be worth rolling the dice and siding with French challenger FACTUEUR CHEVAL. He arrives here under the radar but that defeat of Tribalist last year reads well enough and the four-year-old’s run at the highest level last time, when doing plenty wrong, hints he could spring a surprise.

1 FACTUEUR CHEVAL. 2 PADDINGTON. 3 INSPIRAL. 4 CHARYN. 5 ALDAARY. 6 CHINDIT.