Qatar Goodwood Festival: how vital is the draw?

Goodwood is a beautiful racecourse, but it can also be a beast. The track’s topography means the draw will, as ever, play a crucial role over the next five days.

Up until this year we’ve had to guess just how much of an advantage a runner in a low stall may have over a runner drawn high, or vice versa.

However, we now be more certain because scientists at RaceiQ have studied more than 12 years' worth of race data and built a model that analyses the over or underperformance of runners from each stall in terms of how far runners from that stall were beaten historically.

At a stroke, we can now see who effectively gets a head start, or at least a potential head start. This will be especially important in the handicaps this week, when all the runners theoretically have the same chance.

In the first race of the meeting, for example, the Coral Chesterfield Cup, the RaceiQ metrics indicate that it’s a case of the lower the better.

That was certainly the case in 2020 when Maydanny, the favourite, made all from stall 1. It was similar in 2017 and 2018, too, when horses drawn in stalls 2 and 3 were first past the post (the former was demoted for causing interference).

Stall 1, where the hat-trick seeking Masoun will jump from, has a 0.77 length advantage according to RaceiQ. By contrast, stall 14 (Shadow Dance) gets minus 0.26 lengths. In summary, then, you are just over a length better off being in stall 1 comparted to stall 14 before the first race of the day has even started, based on the forecast good ground.

But those drawn high can go off at inflated odds. Indeed, if you are looking for value in the market, then it’s often the place to focus.

Horses drawn between 13 and 18 have an excess win percentage of between 11.42% and 41.42%, with the figure rising with each  higher stall.

In the past four years, the winners have come from stalls 14, 16, 16 and 18, including at 33-1 and 14-1. Stall 16 also provided the winner in 2016.

And there’s no pattern to running styles. You can win when racing handily, or from well off the pace, such as when Migration swept past the whole field in 2016. 

One horse who looks nailed on to give a good account is Tony Montana, a general 10-1 chance drawn in stall 6 (one win and three places from that stall since 2016). 

He was always in the thick of the action when a close third in last year’s renewal and ran well on his return at Goodwood before hitting the post at York. You can put a line through his latest run in the Royal Hunt Cup because a mile on fast ground was never likely to suit him. 

The other race on the day one card where the RaceiQ draw analysis catches the eye is the 13-runner Ridgeview Fillies' Handicap over a mile at 4.55. 

Once all the numbers have been crunched, stall 1 has a 0.96 length advantage, with stalls 2 and 3 having 0.84 lengths and 0.66 lengths. By contrast, stall 9 starts minus 0.61 lengths down. 

Stalls 1, 2 and 3 have an excess win percentage of about 55%, 40% and 25% (rounding up the figures). That augurs well for the David O’Meara-trained Tundra Rose, a 16-1 chance who will make her handicap debut from the lowest stall of all. 

She was a big gamble on her debut in a 7f maiden at this meeting last year. The money stayed in the satchels of the bookmaker, but she shaped with plenty of promise and her subsequent third in Listed company at Newmarket showed the cash was not misplaced. 

Tundra Rose failed to figure on her return in another Listed contest at Sandown, but she might have needed that run and the ground was perhaps quicker than she would have liked. 

O’Meara is equipping her with cheekpieces on this occasion and underfoot conditions are likely to be easier. One thing is certain: she will have no excuses from where she starts.

The two 7f races on the card demand most attention from a draw perspective.

RaceiQ’s draw bias calculations from the past 12 years point to those drawn between 1 and 5 having a marked advantage in the 14-runner HKJC World Pool Oak Tree Stakes at 1.55.

Between them, they have an excess win percentage of just over 29% (per cent of rivals beaten is 55%), whereas those drawn 6-9 are minus 5.35%, and those 10-14 are minus 24.72% (per cent of rivals beaten about 44%). 

Jabaara, first past the post 12 months ago, is often a fast starter and has plenty going for her from stall 4.

Defence Minister is the early favourite for the World Pool Bet With The tote Handicap at 4.55, but stall 12 seems unlikely make life easy for him.

Stalls 1-7 have about a 29% excess win percentage, with those being 8-13 having a minus 5.35% win percentage. Those drawn 14 to 20? It drops to about minus 25%.

Blue Prince, a 14-1 chance, prevailed from stall 5 last year, although the runners berthed in stalls 19 and 20 both made the frame.

Native Warrior, who will jump from gate 6, looks a likely lad after finishing runner-up in a 9f handicap at the meeting last year when a well-backed favourite.

He did not get home that day after leading in the closing stages, with his final furlong of 12.48sec being only the seventh fastest of the 11 runners. His penultimate furlong had been fastest of the entire field, but then the tank ran dry.

The four-year-old has stuck to shorter races since, including when scoring over 7f at Newcastle last time when sporting a visor. That race was run at strong fractions and a patient approach on Native Warrior admittedly helped his cause. None of the runners managed a Finishing Speed Percentage higher than 97.77%.

He's only 2lb higher than 12 months ago, despite his latest victory, and the fact James Doyle prefers Defence Minister, who is in the same ownership, may help us get a better price. With Doyle swerving him, Christophe Soumillon takes over in the saddle.