Rachel Candelora's Preakness preview: another Honor for Brown

This year’s 151st Preakness Stakes will not be run at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland, instead it is being run at Laurel Park about 30 miles south due to a planned renovation of Pimlico.

Laurel Park itself is a 1 1/8 mile oval, 95-foot-wide racecourse, versus the 1 mile around, 70-foot-wide Pimlico. Because of this track layout Laurel utilizes a system of having two finish lines which allow for flexibility in race distances, however the 1 3/16th mile distance of the Preakness is a rare one at Laurel with the last race run at the distance being on the 6th of August in 2022. 

Due to the distance of the Preakness, the race will finish at the first finish line, and therefore, even with Laurel being a bigger track, the run down the homestretch will be shorter than at Pimlico.

The local hope. This son of Nyquist is unbeaten in three starts, all at Laurel, including when dominating the Listed Federico Tesio Stakes over 1 1/8th mile to earn his spot in the starting gate. The last Maryland-based horse to win the Preakness was Deputed Testamony in 1983 and he used the same final trial ahead of Classic success. 

In the Federico Tesio he went to the front and never looked back, winning by over eight lengths. Although the Federico Tesio has been a “win and you’re in” for this race since 2016, Laurel’s Federico Tesio has become a dubious prep; with the exception of Icabad Crane, who finished 3rd in the 2008 Preakness, no Federico Tesio winner has finished better than 6th in the last 30 years. However, of course it should be remembered that usually the Preakness is run at Pimlico, not here at Laurel. 

Taj Mahal is trained by multiple Maryland champion trainer Brittany Russell and ridden by her husband and six-time leading Laurel rider Sheldon Russell. Although Taj Mahal has yet to race in graded stakes company he has both the pedigree and physical scope to suggest he will climb the ranks well. 

He is by the 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness 3rd Nyquist, and was bought for $525,000 as a yearling by the same ownership conglomerate that campaigned National Treasure to win the Preakness in 2023. The inside draw is not ideal for this fast breaking speed horse given the amount of speed drawn to his outside. 

Finished 3rd, as the 70-1 outsider, in the Kentucky Derby, finishing a length short of becoming the first maiden to win the race since 1933. While six maidens have won the Preakness in the past, none have done it since Refund in 1888. 

In the Kentucky Derby he was the first closer to get to the lead before drifting markedly towards the far side rail (under a heavy right-handed drive) and hampering several of his more fancied rivals before being outstayed by Golden Tempo and Renegade, both of whom are aiming for the Belmont Stakes in three weeks time. 

Jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who rode War Of Will in 2019 to win the Preakness, at Pimlico, is back in the irons. 

While, on paper, this is a much weaker race than the Derby, it is a struggle to see Ocelli as a Classic winner, although he may get a similar pace set up as at Churchill Downs. 

Represents multiple Grade One-winning veteran horseman Donnie Von Hemel and has supplied two of his trainer’s three wins this year – a 1m½f maiden and then the Listed Bathhouse Row Stakes (a win-and-you’re in for the Preakness but on paper a weak race) over 1m1f, both at Oaklawn. 

Overcame a troubled break to win both those races, having been up with the pace throughout, and then gamely held on. 

Doesn’t look like the kind of horse who is crying out to be stepped up further in distance but, from PP3, he may have a huge baring on how the end of the race works out given he is likely to put early pressure on more fancied front-runners including Taj Mahal on his inside. 

Doubt he’ll hang around for a piece of the pie.  

Winner of just one of his six career starts, a one mile maiden at Santa Anita in January. This son of Accelerate was one of the three reserves that drew into the Kentucky Derby, and after getting squeezed up at the break from PP18 he could not show his normal early speed and never got involved at the rear of the field, eventually checking in a never-nearer 14th. 

Trainer Doug O’Neill, who trained I’ll Have Another to Preakness success, has said that PP4 is a much better draw for him as he will be forwardly placed early in the race. 

He appears totally outclassed again and his participation might be, in part, due to the fact that his owner Calumet Farm are the leading owners in the Preakness with seven wins in the race. 

Well named as he became something of a “talking horse” with regard to a three-year-old Classic campaign immediately after his hard-fought debut maiden win at Saratoga in August. That remains his only victory in five career starts. 

After his success at “The Spa” he was immediately sent into Grade One company finishing 6½ lengths second to Napoleon Solo in the Champagne Stakes, run over the one turn mile at Aqueduct, having endured a seven-wide trip around the long sweeping turn. 

That was when things turned sour for the Danny Gargan-trained son of Good Magic. He drew PP11 of 11 in the Gr3 Remsen back at Aqueduct in December and, after he finished a tired ninth, it was reported he was a sick horse who needed time to recover. 

Patience, reports trainer Gargan, has been a key to getting Talkin to the Preakness starting gate. It was a much bigger, stronger horse who reappeared in the Tampa Bay Derby Gr3 in early March - many onlookers noting he looked in need of the race when only fifth – but he appeared to take a significant step forward when third in the 1m1f Blue Grass Gr1 at Keeneland last time out. 

Gargan has also waited patiently for a Preakness rider – veteran Kendrick Carmouche (who was aboard for Talkin’s first three starts) was on standby but the scratch of Silent Tactic last week made Irad Ortiz Jr available. Gargan and Oritz Jr have a 37% strike rate (3 for 8) this year. 

Worth noting that Danny Gargan is already a Classic winning trainer as he saddled Dornoch to Belmont Stakes success in 2024 – when the Belmont was first rerouted to Saratoga. A tricky horse to assess – his numbers are not good enough and he has not finished strongly in either of his two-turn races, but his reputation and specific training for this race point to a player. I’d use, but not on top. 

A horse that was qualified to run in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, but connections, namely two-time Preakness winning trainer Steve Asmussen, felt it was best to take a pass and point to the Preakness. Asmussen’s main reason being that he thought that the whole Derby occasion would get to Chip Honcho, most notably the large crowd that would have lit up this already aggressive horse. 

This year, with the Preakness at Laurel, the crowd is being capped at 4,800 customers and there will be no “Preak-fest” on the infield, so a less rowdy atmosphere may help Chip Honcho to perform well. 

Kentucky Derby and Oaks winning jockey Jose Ortiz gets back aboard having ridden him to win his maiden at the Fair Grounds. His overall form puts him into contention here with a Listed win in the Gun Runer Stakes over 1 1/16th mile at The Fair Grounds, before a gutsy runner up performance in the Gr 2 Risen Star Stakes over 1 1/8th mile in New Orleans, setting the pace before getting run out of it late by the promising Paladin with subsequent Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo 5 ½ lengths behind him in 3rd. 

Last time out he sat 3rd before fading in the Gr 2 Louisiana Derby over the Preakness trip of 1 3/16th miles. He has been rested and training steadily for the eight weeks since that run, and while there is a lot of pace on paper, Steve Asmussen is not changing his run style. 

This son of Authentic has won two of his four career starts, a 6f maiden at Remington Park in Oklahoma last year and then a 6f allowance race at Sunland Park in New Mexico in March. 

In his first try at Graded Stakes level he finished 2nd in the Gr 3 Lexington Stakes over 1 1/16th mile at Keeneland last time out. 

In the Lexington Stakes he pressed the pace before getting a little bit tired at the end and relinquishing two lengths to the winner Trendsetter, who was a well beaten 3rd in the Gr 3 Peter Pan Stakes last weekend. 

Trainer Todd Fincher said that this was a big step up in trip for him in the Lexington, but that The Hell We Did got a lot out of the race. The way he ran in the Lexington, and given he is the half brother to Gr 1 Saudi Cup winner Senor Buscador, whose optimum trip was 9f, means the added furlong in the Preakness is unlikely to suit.

This grey has won two of his five career starts, a 1 mile maiden at Gulfstream last November, and a last-to-first success in the Listed Rushaway Stakes on the Tapeta at Turfway Park over 1 1/16th mile last time out. In the Rushaway, subsequent Gr 3 Lexington Stakes winner Trendsetter was back in third. 

Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr, Bull By The Horns should relish the extra trip of the Preakness being by Essential Quality and out of a Blame mare, and he should get the pace he wants to aim at. . . but if the pace collapses as it did in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago he might be the Golden Tempo of the Preakness.  

Trainer Chad Brown has successfully been down this road twice before: bring a horse to the Preakness, who is having his fourth career start, first time outside of New York, having had his last run in the Wood Memorial and win! He did it in 2022 with Early Voting and in 2017 with Cloud Computing.

Iron Honor is having his fourth career start in the Preakness, has never raced anywhere other than Aqueduct, and was last seen finishing a troubled 7th in the Gr 2 Wood Memorial. In the Wood, he was bumped hard going into the first turn, which lit him up and he was never able to settle after that. 

In the Preakness, Iron Honor will have his normal blinkers removed as Chad Brown thinks that the equipment change will help him settle more. 

Prior to the Wood Memorial run, Iron Honor won the Gr 3 Gotham Stakes over 1 mile at Aqueduct, making him one of only three horses in this year’s Preakness that own a graded stakes win. The 2021 Preakness winning jockey Flavien Prat gets aboard for the first time, which is a huge positive. 

Also, pedigree-wise Iron Honor is bred for the job, being by Nyquist and out of a Blame mare. Another positive given his stalking run style, PP9 gives Flavien Prat options of where to put him early in the race.  

The only Grade 1 winner in the field, having won the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct as a two-year-old last October. He won that 1 mile Gr 1 by 6 ½ lengths from Talkin to stamp himself a leading two-year-old last season. However, in two starts so far as a three-year-old he has been frankly disappointing. 

On his seasonal reappearance in the Gr 2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes over 1 1/16th mile at Gulfstream he was prominent early before weakening and being beaten by 11 ¾ lengths. 

Five weeks later, a similar scenario occurred where from PP 1 in the Gr 2 Wood Memorial, he led before fading late. 

This son of Liam’s Map looks very much like a horse who is better over one-turn shorter races, but is struggling to see out longer, two turn races. 

Veteran front-running rider Paco Lopez, who was aboard him for the first time in the Wood Memorial, keeps the ride here, which suggests Napoleon Solo will also play a part in the early speed battle. 

This son of Bolt d’Oro has the distinction of being the only Kentucky Derby reserve this year to not have drawn into the Derby itself. He has won one of his five career starts, a 1 1/16th mile maiden at the Fair Grounds two starts ago, where he made all of the running. 

He tried to employee similar tactics last time out in the Gr 3 Lexington Stakes over 1 1/16th miles at Keeneland but yielded late on to finish 3 lengths 3rd. 

The 2023 Preakness winning jockey John Velazquez gets aboard for the first time. 

A casual glance at his last two runs would suggest that he would also be a part of the early pace setup, but given that the wiley Johnny V has been booked by trainer Dallas Stewart (who often has his horses ridden to pick up the pieces when sent off at big prices in Classics) expect a change of run style here. 

According to trainer Riley Mott, a run in the Gr 3 Matt Winn at Churchill in a couple of weeks time was the plan for Incredibolt, however when Silent Tactic was taken out of consideration for the Preakness, Mott talked to the owners and then made a very late call to the Maryland Jockey Club and the Preakness gained an extra runner. 

A winner of three of his six career starts, Incredibolt ran a decent 6th, beaten only 4 lengths, in the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago, having been relatively close to the quick early pace, before being hampered in the stretch by the drifting Ocelli. Overall, a performance that Riley Mott called a “sneaky-good race.” 

He came out of the Derby in great shape and has been galloping well since. Jamie Torres, who won the Preakness in 2024 on Seize The Grey, keeps the ride. 

Although very few horses in the US are ever asked to reappear in just two weeks it is worth noting that Incredibolt put together back to back wins last autumn at Churchill Downs in the space of just 28 days. 

The first also-eligible to draw in to the Derby, his dreams were dashed behind the gate when he reared over and was withdrawn before the start. Prior to that he had won two races, both of them on the tapeta surface at Turfway Park including in the Listed John Battaglia Memorial Stakes over 1 1/16th miles. 

He made his dirt debut in the Gr 1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland where he set the early pace and then was soundly beaten into 5th by 22+ lengths. According to trainer John Ennis when this horse gets in front by himself he does absolutely nothing, he needs a target to aim at.  

Breaking from an outside stall will be beneficial for this huge, long striding horse, and his trainer has said that even if they have to stay wide Great White will slot in behind the early speed, not be a part of it this time. 

Has raced exclusively at Aqueduct, in New York, but is yet to face Graded or Stakes company and has never raced against more than seven rivals to date. Now he has drawn PP14 in a Classic around a much sharper track. This all points to the mountain he has to climb. 

Beaten twice before blinkers were added for clearcut wins in a 6½f maiden and a mile Starter Optional Claimer. Has stalked the early pace, and then led at around halfway, in both wins. That is highly unlikely to happen here from wide, in this grade, going around two turns for the first time.    

Often there is very little similarity between the Derby and its sister race a fortnight later, but not only has the venue changed but with the abundance of speed in this race it could implode and set up for deep closers. That said, Laurel is a much tighter track than Churchill Downs and therefore the closers have less time to get involved in the stretch, so I want the top pick to come from the stalking second wave. 

Taking blinkers off #9 IRON HONOR for the first time should make him more tractable (he has worked well without them in the morning) and arguably the post-position draw could not have worked out any better given his likely run style. Few trainers in the modern history of American racing have such a system of using the same preps successfully, as Chad Brown, to hit the main target. 

For win purposes it may be worth edging your bets on #5 TALKIN who should start to make his challenge from the same part of the field as the top pick. Although this is already his sixth career start, he still has a tremendous amount of potential upside, given the issues he had over the winter, and that the Tampa Bay and Keeneland runs were simply stepping stones to this. 

Even though I am fully aware of the statistics, I have to give some love to local hope #1 TAJ MAHAL who may genuinely be one of the best Maryland-based horses to run in this race this century. Not only will he be ridden by the one jockey in this race who knows every bit of dirt at Laurel, visually his victory in the Federico Tesio was compelling, most notably because he railed like a trap 1 greyhound around the turn into the homestretch and had that race blown apart well over a quarter of a mile from home. I hope he can hold on for a piece of it. However, if this race collapses like the Derby who is the one to come from last to first? 

#8 BULL BY THE HORNS did just that to win at Turfway Park last time out, closing into moderate fractions. You also have to like the fact that he has already demonstrated tactical speed, over shorter, when breaking his maiden on traditional dirt. As was suggested in the Derby preview with Golden Tempo, he may be one to consider in extended place markets.

 #12 INCREDIBOLT is the representative from this year’s Kentucky Derby field who will make the bottom of my ticket. Although he finished three places behind Ocelli at Churchill Downs, that rival badly hampered him and others (would probably have been DQ’d in a lesser race), so I am confident that Incredibolt can now reverse that form. 

So my five against the field are (in order of preference): 

#9 Iron Honor

#5 Talkin

#1 Taj Mahal

#8 Bull By The Horns

#12 Incredibolt