Peter Marsh Chase: are you for or against Royale Pagaille?

After the sustained cold snap it’s welcome to anticipate a weekend of jumps racing without recourse to the weather forecasts beforehand – and the £100,000 Sky Bet Peter Marsh Chase is set to come out on the right side for once. 

This year’s race will be the first to be staged since 2022 and Royale Pagaille will be going for a big-race hat-trick over five years, having won the last two renewals in 2022 and 2021.

But do you go with him or against him at an ante-post price of 3-1? 

The 11-year-old loves Haydock Park – he’s five from six at the track, with his sole defeat a distant second to the top-class A Plus Tard in the 2021 Betfair Chase on ground described as Good by Timeform.

The ground is Heavy at Haydock as of Wednesday morning and, while the outlook is dry, the weather is not expected to significantly alter conditions with testing ground surely the order of the day at the weekend.

Royale Pagaille is a proven performer on heavy ground and has a strong record after a break – his victory in the Betfair Chase will be 56 days ago by post-time – and he’s the undisputed class act in the race with his career-high rating of 166 meaning only seven of his 14 rivals are in the weights proper. 

Royale Pagaille will have to concede a stone to Trelawne – next in the weights in the expectation that Sam Brown takes up his engagement in the rescheduled Veterans’ Final at Warwick – and defying a mark as high as 166 would be unusual looking at British jump racing as a whole over the last 15 years. 

Only four horses have defied such a mark or higher since 2010, often in small fields – Greanateen (168) in the 2022 Haldon Gold Cup, Sire De Grugy (172) at Chepstow in 2015, Albertas Run (168) in the 2011 Old Roan and Poquelin (170) in the 2011 April meeting feature at Cheltenham. Those four are from a sample of 45 runners (9 per cent, 0.47 A/E).

Royale Pagaille had to work hard to win this race off 163 three years ago by half a length from Sam Brown and he’s rated higher now, while the form of the yard is open to question – at least in terms of the rude health which its enjoyed for the majority of the campaign. Before racing on Wednesday, the place strike-rate of Venetia Williams’ runners reads 38 per cent in the last 90 days and 40 per cent in the last 30 days, but that’s own to 28 per cent in the last fortnight while the win strike-rate is down from 18 per cent to 9 per cent respectively. 

The stable form is something to bear in mind, yet it has a bit less bearing when focusing on a the narrower pool of a yard's high-class performers and stable stars and Williams has an excellent record in the Peter Marsh in the last 25 years (four winners plus two placed from 14 runs; +£6.75, 1.93 A/E).

Class can often tell in this race, too – horses carrying 11st 10lb or more since 1997 are four from 21 (1.16 A/E) with several runner-up efforts, including Definitly Red when trying to give 13lb to Vintage Clouds in the 2020 race.

All told, odds of 3-1 - suggesting that Royale Pagaille has a 25 per cent of winning - looks to underestimate his chance and he’s worth a small investment with the caveats of ante-post betting in mind.

Mr Vango is the current 3-1 joint-favourite as things stand and, while he’s 1lb out of the weights, this very lightly-raced and progressive chaser is a runner of real interest. 

Jockey Nico de Boinville has a close association with the Bradstock stable and he won the London National aboard Mr Vango last time, but he will be at Ascot to ride Jonbon in the BetMGM Clarence House Chase on Saturday. Ben Jones could get the call-up again (one win from two rides on Mr Vango) and, while he doesn’t have the profile and big-race experience of De Boinville, he’s riding well and his career record over fences as a whole stands close scrutiny (17.4 per cent, 1.06 A/E) and it may not be the negative to the extent that the market might anticipate.

The bigger issue is that Mr Vango might have competition for the lead and this extended three-mile trip would be very much on the short side for him. While the forecast is not necessarily a drying one, the ground may ease slightly from the current Heavy given a dry outlook and Mr Vango would want conditions as testing as possible.

Sam Brown would definitely be of interest here with conditions to suit but his double-figure odds indicate that he’s likely to head to the Veterans’ Final - his long-term target – instead, while Imagine is completely unexposed over this ground and trip but he has some tough adversaries here who are absolutely proven in the conditions.

Trelawne is a talented if mercurial type on the evidence of his career so far but put it all together to beat Iroko here on deep ground on his seasonal return. He would be another interesting contender and the leading one from a clutch of second-season chasers engaged here, although the form of his win last time hasn’t worked out in quite the way as may have been anticipated at the time.