Saturday tips based on RaceiQ data: it all points to Ombudsman

I’ve been looking forward to seeing the unbeaten Victory Queen (3.00) again and she hits the track again at Sandown on Saturday. 

She has looked tough and versatile on both of her starts. Her latest Ascot victory was arguably a fortunate one as the runner-up was hindered in her challenge by traffic, but a more conventionally-run race here on a stiffer track will suit her better anyway. 

In that race, she broke smartly, taking the least time of the field to reach 20mph, 2.64 seconds, and William Buick used that to his advantage, giving him the ability to dictate his own terms in front. She clocked the slowest Top Speed of the field, but managed to make use of her lovely long stride to repel all challengers as they quickened in the home straight. 

Her long striding in particular is what makes me think she’ll be better suited to a stiffer track here. In both of her starts so far, she has recorded the longest average stride length of her rivals, and that makes her far more efficient as she travels through the race. 

She also occupies one of the most favourable stalls over this course and distance, with this many runners. Her stall historically has given its occupants an advantage of +0.34 lengths over their rivals. For context, Blue Bolt occupies stall three, which represents the least favourable draw with a historical disadvantage of -0.25 lengths. 

Hopefully Victory Queen’s jockey William Buick – who is operating at a 24% strike rate this year - will be going into the Coral-Eclipse (3.35) on the back of a winner, and he might well make it a double given the manner of Ombudsman’s overwhelmingly impressive success in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. 

What was particularly impressive last time, was that in a race run at breakneck fractions, he quickened again as he approached the finish line. It’s normally hard to fault Ryan Moore, but when he decided to force the pace early doors, hitting 41.43mph in the second furlong, Los Angeles’s goose was cooked. 

Buick must have been smiling as he watched on from the rear of the field, taking his time in comparison. He clocked the slowest Top Speed of the field at 39.33mph, which meant that he had plenty to challenge with up the home straight. 

It is very rare for a horse to quicken in the final furlong, but Ombudsman’s final furlong was 0.25 seconds quicker than his penultimate, and faster than three out as well. 

Staying power is always the key at Sandown. Only 18% of winners there over 1m2f record the quickest Top Speed of the race, compared to 28% races over 1m2f on the turf across all tracks in Britain and Ireland. Put simply, it all seems to stack up perfectly for Ombudsman.