Saturday tips: Page Fuller's selections based on RaceiQ data

Erzindjan may have been winless for some time, but his effort in defeat in the Cambridgeshire last month suggested that he’s not too far away from getting his head back in front. The 1m2f handicap today at York at 2.05 looks just the place for him to do so.

The luck of the draw was not with him last time. He was drawn in stall 23, and unfortunately for him, all of the pace was drawn with those in the low numbers.

It wouldn’t have taken long for his supporters to realise what was about to happen, as those racing up the far side set far stronger fractions than the group he was in on the near side. It meant that even by the end of the first furlong, he was 0.93 seconds behind Boiling Point, the eventual winner.

Given the circumstances, his performance was pretty eyecatching, as even with two furlongs to run, he still had 17 places to make up. He finished first in his group and completed the final three furlongs faster than any other horse in the race. It was 0.78 seconds faster than Boiling Point, but unfortunately, the ground he forfeited in the first furlong proved too much to claw back.

The draw will not be against him today, however, as his position in stall six gives its occupants a +0.24 length advantage on their rivals, according to our data. It might not be the most advantageous, but for context, Tony Montana drawn on the wide outside is in a stall that is normally at a disadvantage of -0.62 lengths.

Up in distance by another furlong as well, Tom Marquand should be well positioned to tuck him neatly on to the rail on the first bend, and then be in the prime position to pounce at the line.

Back at Newmarket, the Dewhurst Stakes (3.00) takes centre stage, and Distant Storm may prove difficult to beat.

We took a look at what it takes for a horse to win over six furlongs on the Newmarket Rowley Mile, and what we found was quite interesting. Across turf tracks in general in Britain and Ireland, 24% of races are won by the horse that clocks the fastest Top Speed in the race.

At the Rowley Mile over 7f, speed seems to be even more important with 33% of races won by the horse with the fastest Top Speed at any point.

Distant Storm clocked the fastest Top Speed in both races he won at Newmarket this season, and the 42.3 mph that he registered on debut is faster than any other horse in this race has reached.

That raw speed was arguably his Achillies heel at York with steady early fractions and the downhill start over seven furlongs seeing the field running straight into a bend. He silenced his doubters next time in the Tattersalls Stakes, and a first Group One now seems well within his reach.