Paddy's Pick 5: top tips for Saturday's £100,000 game

2:25 Kempton: TWEED SKIRT

A great little race to start this week’s bumper €/£100K Paddy’s Pick 5, and, in scenes reminiscent of the fight stand-off in Anchorman, it’s a real Seven Barrows vs Ditcheat battle.

Team Ditcheat:

This has always been a race that Paul Nicholls (and seemingly also owner [Mrs] Johnny de la Hey) has targeted, so Solo - following a wind operation - needs plenty of consideration having lost little in defeat when trying to concede 8lb to a well-handicapped horse over C&D last time.

Likely favourite Boothill is relatively well-fancied for the Arkle, but whilst the ground is in his favour he has something to prove now stepping up in trip after being put in his place by Tommy’s Oscar at Doncaster last time. Including two runs in Points, he is now 0/5 in races run over further than 2m 1f.

Dan Skelton saddles the progressive Jay Jay Reilly, who showed plenty of resilience (in first-time cheekpieces) when recovering from a bad mistake to win here last time. With the ground in his favour, he’s a big player.

Team Seven Barrows:

TWEED SKIRT fared perhaps as well as expected when chasing home two higher-rated mares at Huntingdon last time out (especially as she made a bad mistake two out) but is better rated on her previous handicap wins over C&D and at Wincanton. She was ridden by Nico De Boinville when winning here in November (as she was for two of her other three wins) and, with the stable jockey back on board and the ground in her favour, she is the one to side with.

Jamie Snowden has to be ‘Brick’, if only because he has worked for both camps. Datsalrightgino ran well in defeat when chasing home Stage Star at Cheltenham last month and is another progressive young novice handicap chaser. He’s closely linked with Boothill on their Newton Abbot run in October and is respected as a result, but both look worth taking on here.

Now, which trainer do we think wears ‘Sex Panther’?

3.00 Kempton: CAP DU NORD

For all he won on testing ground here last time, Annsam is adaptable in terms of ground conditions so commands plenty of respect, but he’s one to take on under an 8lb rise in this better race.

In contrast, a 5lb penalty for last weekend’s Ascot win still leaves last year’s winner CAP DU NORD seemingly fairly-handicapped, having been placed from marks of 133 and 139 in the past. Off 132 here, he looks the one to beat, especially as this is very much his time of year (all eight wins between 28 November and 15 March).

Should this race come too soon for Cap Du Nord, then the well-treated pair of Clondaw Castle (who won this race in 2021) and Flegmatik (first-time cheekpieces) are two major players, while recent C&D winner Killer Kane is just one of several prominent racers who should ensure that this race is run at a good clip. That will suit Killer Clown, whose trainer’s rep quoted a strongly-run race and more patient tactics as to why the horse performed to his best when winning here last March.

The 19-time winner Frodon should appreciate the return to quicker ground than he has faced the last three times and this handicap mark isn’t beyond him, while his stablemate Saint Calvados has stamina to prove but Harry Cobden rode him to success over two and three quarter miles at Sandown last April so should have a good idea.

Our Power bucked his own history when winning after a long break when last seen and a 5lb higher mark looks fair. He’s yet another to consider in what looks a belting handicap where very few can be discounted with any confidence.

3.40 Kempton: KAYF LEGEND

Not the strongest of renewals and, given the poor fate of favourites in the race in recent seasons, there’s every chance to think that taking on the top two in the betting makes a bit of sense.

Hansard has done little wrong in two starts for Gary Moore since going hurdling/being recruited from Ireland, but this is a step up in class and the form of his Plumpton win doesn’t really equate to his short price here.

Rubaud tries a hood after seemingly being over-faced by the task in the Betfair Hurdle where he raced too freely. Quicker ground and the return to going right-handed might help, too, mind you.

Better is also expected from Ukantango who was outclassed and all at sea in a soggy Tolworth Hurdle when last seen but who had looked progressive up until then, including when second in the Supreme Trial at Cheltenham (form that has worked out fairly nicely).

The progressive trio of Imperial Bede, Postmark and Mullenbeg all need to improve again, and a strongly-run race seems crucial to the chances of all three, but that doesn’t look assured here, and as a result it makes sense to focus our attention on KAYF LEGEND.

If he can see off the early attentions of Ukantango, there’s a good chance that he can get his own way out in front. It might be a little simplistic, but he represents Chris Gordon who has won two of the last three renewals (albeit with shorter-priced runners) and he could be a hard horse to pass, as he proved when battling back to win at Lingfield last time out.

3:55 Fairyhouse: KEMBOY

Given the red-hot company he kept in the Irish Gold Cup last time, it’s fair to say that KEMBOY ran about as well as his odds of 16/1 suggested he would, and it wasn’t a performance that takes anything away from his standing. He’s taking a drop in grade here, having contested most of the top staying chases since his last victory (in the 2021 Irish Gold Cup). This is no penalty kick, but he’s consistent, likes decent ground, and his three runs at the track include a win and runner-up finish.

The step back up in trip will suit Vanillier but his jumping has become a real problem, and it looks a tough ask to concede at least 8lb to all. Stamina is a question mark for both Glamorgan Duke and Now Where Or When, whilst it’s wellbeing for Farclas who was a long way adrift when pulled up on his seasonal return last time.

Meanwhile the stumbling block for recent Thyestes Chase winner Carefully Selected – who had Pencilfulloflead back in third that day at Gowran - may be more the quicker ground rather than the return to graded company (twice a winner in Grade 3s as a novice). Like Kemboy, he represents Willie Mullins, who saddled the winner of this race six times in a row between 2016 and 2021.

Call me a cynic (amongst other names), but the Grand National weights have now been published and – after a glimmer of promise last time – a much improved performance is expected from Enjoy D’Allen. The same applies to Longhouse Poet who has spent his season to date over hurdles, but the Aintree sixth now reverts to conventional fences for the first time since winning last year’s Thyestes. He is adaptable in terms of ground, stays well, and has a good chance at these weights, so looks a big danger.

4:10 Kempton: LOCK'S CORNER

The market will help guide as to what is expected from Will Carver, a very progressive novice when last seen but off for 629 days since – it would be a good story were he to win.

Don Hollow falls into the progressive novice category right now, so is very much respected from an opening handicap mark of 120, but preference is for LOCK'S CORNER. After a long time in the doldrums, he’s bounced back in style this season, following up wins at Catterick and Ayr before seemingly failing to last home at Huntingdon last time out. He drops in trip here and, with that form franked since, looks a big player once more.

Scarpia, who was ahead of Lock’s Corner when third behind Itchy Feet last time, is certainly respected, especially if he is ridden more prominently in a race that Timeform suggests might not be run at a furious gallop. With this in mind, hold-up performers Vintage Fizz and Ivaldi (too keen last time but an eye-catcher nonetheless) are passed over.

With slight concerns about the stamina of Mark Of Gold, the well-handicapped Royaume Uni looks the most tempting of the Gary Moore pair with conditions in his favour; that comment also applies to the ever-green 12-year-old Ballyhome. Halo Des Obeaux is half his age but has plenty of strong form to call upon, especially over hurdles. As a result, he is respected now back over the smaller obstacles, but the pick of his form has come on much more testing ground.