Paddy's Pick 5: our tips for Saturday's £100,000 rollover!

Form boffins will point to recent Sandown winner (of the same race for the second year in a row) GREEN BOOK disappointing at this meeting 12 months ago, but that may not paint the full picture. It was desperate ground that day which wouldn’t have suited, and his subsequent fifth in the Albert Bartlett showed it was far from his true running. With a good course record to his name, he looks one of the bets of the day and despite his penalty rates the strong first selection in this week’s bumper £/€100,000 Paddy’s Pick 5.

If I'm totally wrong – according to my family it has happened before – and this race does come too soon, then Ashtown Lad, a confirmed stayer who won last year's Becher Chase as well as finishing fifth in the Scottish National, is the obvious alternative. He’s preferred to the less-exposed Erne River, who showed plenty of heart when suffering a defeat at Doncaster in December but who has since had a wind op.

Itchy Feet was well-fancied for this race in 2021 but was well-held that day and, though respected after his recent Pertemps Qualifier win, there’s a feeling that he may have been seen to best effect against lesser horses that day. Wakool looks the pick of the Scottish runners who complete the field, but all three need to improve on recent form.

Horses aged 10 or older have won seven of the last 17 renewals, including top-weight Bristol De Mai who was 11 when passing the post in second 12 months ago but nearly 12 by the time he was awarded the race in November after The Galloping Bear was disqualified for a banned substance. The Haydock stalwart (who has five other course wins to his name, including three Betfair Chases) is back for another crack - and is sure to be primed to the minute - but time may have caught up with him.

Venetia Williams looks to be on a mission to win this race for a third time this century, with Cloudy Glen joining the well-fancied pair of FONTAINE COLLONGES and Quick Wave in the field. The betting looks to have it about right, both horses having plenty of stamina and unlikely to be phased by quicker going, but it’s the younger horse who gets the nod. He had a hard race when winning here in November but stepped up on that form when fourth at Kempton five weeks later and is fancied to progress again.

Only three horses finished the race last year, but this better ground should change that, and it certainly shouldn’t hinder the chance of Notachance who looked back to near his best when third at Warwick last time (form franked by the fourth since, Grumpy Charley pulled up in behind). Omar Maretti made a pleasing return to form at Ayr last month and he remains unexposed and rates a big danger as a result.

Fortrescue was one of several who was pulled-up behind the mudlark The Two Amigos in the Welsh National back in December. He rates better than that, and is back to a winning mark, but all of his wins have come in smaller fields, so he is taken on despite this being very much his time of year.

Snow Leopardess didn’t seem to last home at Cheltenham last time out so the drop in trip (and application of cheekpieces) could see her bounce back. Tim Pat made hay in small fields at the start of his chasing career but bounced back to form last time and rates a bigger threat than the ultra-consistent First Lord De Cuet. Small Present is very unexposed over fences and looks the pick of the rest.

The Kingwell has always been a good test of speed over stamina, and the feeling is that KNAPPERS HILL might just nick this from the front in what could be a tactical affair. He’s not assured an easy lead, but connections clearly had a plan when he saw off Sceau Royal over C&D in November and a similar scenario is expected here with conditions very much in his favour - more so than when stepped up in trip on softer ground in the Relkeel at Cheltenham last time.

That’s not to say he’s up against a bunch of plodders, of course. Indeed, First Street finished ahead of Knappers Hill when a running-on third at Cheltenham and his catalogue of back-form includes a close-up second to State Man in last season’s County Hurdle. Yes, that State Man. But stamina, rather than speed, looks to be First Street’s strength.

I Like To Move It was behind both rivals last time and, while respected here, my suspicion is that he is shown to best effect in a strongly-run handicaps, exemplified when winning the Greatwood Hurdle on his seasonal reappearance in November. The drop in trip will suit the front-running old-timer Global Citizen but it’s hard to see him being quick enough to stay in front for too long.

A really tricky little handicap in which it’s hard to get a real grip on how Hardy Bloke’s big Irish handicap form stacks up. It would be no surprise to see it fare very well indeed, but there still looks to be plenty of mileage in JOHNSON’S BLUE and he is preferred. It was probably a waste of diesel taking him down to Fakenham for a race over two and a half miles last month, but he didn’t disgrace himself in sixth and is much better judged on his progressive staying form back in the North.

The Changing Man, who was ahead of__ Get A Tonic__ last time, is joined by both Brandy McQueen and Jerrash on the list of similarly progressive hurdlers, and all appear to rate as bigger dangers than either Party Business or the returning Mill Green. The latter two are linked on their run at Aintree last April, a contest in which Party Business came out on top (Mill Green a well-held third). Mill Green appears to be high enough in the weights at present, though Party Business may come on for his Sandown run, and is one to watch out for in the big handicaps at Cheltenham/Aintree, if not here.

A consistent profile and his yard’s good form make Onagatheringstorm of some interest. The step back up in trip here is probably more appealing than his recent wind-op and the application of cheekpieces for the first time. He’s another who is reluctantly passed over.

With Wake Up Early likely to be prominent as he drops in trip (which will suit), and last year’s winner Ede’iffs Elton likely to front-run once again, this race should be run at a fair clip.

That should suit SWITCH HITTER who got a good tow into the race when winning on his chasing debut at Hereford back in late 2021. He hasn’t added to his tally in four starts since but rates better than his reappearance effort in a very competitive handicap at Cheltenham last time out. At Wincanton on a Saturday, in Paul Nicholls we trust.

As mentioned, Ede’iffs Elton won this race 12 months ago, but for all he is only 1lb higher now last year’s renewal looks inferior to his race. Captain Tommy is on a good mark; he needs to bounce back on his second start for a shrewd yard, but a wind op may help with that. Sam Barton’s flop at Ludlow is put down to him suffering a bleed, rather than any big drop off in form given his previously consistent profile.

Fantastikas looked a young horse going places when landing a big novice chase at Lingfield in early 2022, but his career has stalled. It might be that this lesser company and drop in trip/handicap mark will see a marked return to form, but it’s probably worth noting that the pick of his form has come when going left-handed. He might be of more interest for something like the Ultima next month (seventh from a mark of 144 last year), though it should also be noted that he probably needs a good performance here to get in.