Festival Trials Day: "I'd say that he is an absolute certainty"

Paul Nicholls will not be winning a sixth Betfair Cotswold Chase on Saturday but he is sure that one of his former assistants, Dan Skelton, will be toasting a first success in the race.

Nicholls will not be represented in the Grade Two feature but Skelton has the general 1-2 favourite, Grey Dawning, with the multiple champion trainer believing the £71,000 first prize is at his mercy.

"I'm surprised there's only four runners and I'd say that Grey Dawning is an absolute certainty," Nicholls said in his Betfair column on Thursday.

"He'll love the ground, he's been kept fresh, he was very impressive in the Betfair Chase, it's a good time away from the Cheltenham Gold Cup and I think he'll be very hard to beat."He added: "For this type of race, you have to have a horse that will stay and be a bit classy, it's just shy of the Cheltenham Gold Cup trip, but you still have to stay.

"I think the ground is going to be testing on Saturday, it's a good race, it's just a shame there's only four runners. That's the way it is at the moment, there's not too many high-class Gold Cup type horses in the UK, especially if we can only field two. But as I say, I think Grey Dawning will take the world of beating."

Nicholls will saddle Quebecois in the opening Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase, and Minella Yoga in the JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle

"We are still learning about him after he surprised us a little with the manner of his win at Newbury in December," he said of the later. "The way he travelled and stayed on strongly to put the race to bed in the last furlong impressed me.

"He can only keep learning. I think the softer ground won't hurt him - he won on heavy at Fairyhouse in November - and, based on the way he stayed on strongly, I think he will gallop up that Cheltenham hill. It is a learning curve, we are learning all about him.

"Dan Skelton's horse in this race, Maestro Conti, has won two from two, and there are other smart horses in there, so this is going to be a good race. But we are very happy with Minella Yoga and how he performs on Saturday will tell us whether he is going to go to the Triumph Hurdle. He has good form, but we will know a lot more about him after this race. He is without a doubt my best chance of the day.  

Of Quebecois, he said: "I want to run him in one of the handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival and you need to have four runs as a novice to compete, so I need to run him twice more.

"It is not ideal on Saturday, with testing ground, and I would not be running him over three miles on testing, because he likes decent ground, but two-and-a-half is ideal for him on soft.

"After this he will have to go again somewhere in the next fortnight, so we can prepare him for a Cheltenham run in something like the Ultima Handicap. I think you will see the best of him in the spring, but we need to get some experience into him. 

Leading novice hurdler No Drama This End will be staying at home in Ditcheat after his victory in the Grade One Challow Hurdle last month."No Drama This End is very happy, he's nice and fresh and well," Nicholls said. "We're going to have to start increasing his work because he is nice and fresh as he came out of the race at Newbury very well, it was a lovely prep."My idea was to give him a quieter month, but he's been doing once canter up the hill one day, then two the second day, then back to one, but as from next week we'll just start upping that work, have an away day somewhere, so we're very happy with him."It's very interesting to watch all the opposition that he may face in the Turners, I'm glad we ran him at Newbury and not wait until now as the ground is going to be very testing at the weekend with the forecast."He added: "Ruby Walsh used to always say to me the ground on Trials Day has no bearing on the ground at the Festival because it's very different. It will be very soft, possibly heavy on Saturday but come March you could have decent ground, so you can't always trust the form from the trials and I'm very glad we ran at Newbury and we're not here."