Monday tips: Andy Stephens has four fancies

There are many reassuring certainties in racing. Debates about whether geldings should be allowed to run in the Prix De l’Arc de Triomphe (Luck On Sunday provided a lively addition this weekend);  Aidan O’Brien having a hatful of Derby contenders; and Sir Mark Prescot reeling off a sequence of staying handicap wins with well-handicapped horses who had previously shown little over much shorter.

The latest Prescott project is Analogical, backed off the boards when winning on his handicap bow off a rating of 57 at Beverley last week when upped to 1m4f form 7f.

He runs under a 6lb penalty at Redcar on Monday, in first-time cheekpieces, and is also entered at Chepstow on Wednesday.  It would be no surprise if he secures an eight-day hat-trick but, inevitably, he will not be much of a price.

Hopefully the quartet below will be bigger prices, starting with:

This three-year-old changed hands for just 1,500gns at the sales last autumn but has already won nearly £4,000 this season with placed efforts at Lingfield, kempton and Windsor. 

His latest near-miss, at the last-named track, was perhaps a story of what might have been as he stumbled leaving the stalls and had to weave around a bit to try and get a clear run. He ended on the wide outside and went down by a neck. 

This looks a good opportunity for him to go one better because he’s only 1lb higher in a race lacking much depth. Moreover, Billy Loughnane rides Early Release for the first time and, while it’s a small pool sample, he is two from four when riding for a stable that routinely has a strike-rate of about 10 per cent. 

This is competitive with Jonny Concrete and Sacred Falls arriving here on the back of wins, plus our Video Tipster, Michael Teeney, making a valid case for Iris Dancer bouncing back off a mark 6lb lower than when scoring here last summer. 

However, I fancy the relatively lightly raced Mostar Dreams can come out on top. 

She was consistent for Iain Jardine last year before changing hands for 24,000gns in the autumn and being switched to the in-form Jim Goldie. 

The four-year-old filly made a highly encouraging stable debut when half a length second to the William Haggas-trained Raneen at Doncaster. That effort needs marking up, too, as she was fizzy in the early stages on what was her first start for almost seven months. 

She’s only 1lb higher in the ratings and Goldie has identified that some of his new recruit’s best efforts last season were at this track. 

Half of the six runners in this contest won last time out but Savvy Kingdom stands out among them. 

He missed last season after showing promise in four starts as a two-year-old (beat the now 96-rated Ebt’s Guard on level weights at Kempton on one occasion) but is making up for lost time this campaign, wining in resolute fashion at Newcastle last time after an encouraging return at Lingfield. The runner-up at Newcastle has since gone close again. 

All Savvy Kingdom’s best efforts have been on the all-weather but there is no reason to think he will not be as effective on turf and a mark of 81 – he’s gone up only 3lb for his win last time – may well still underestimate him. 

You need to take a bit of a leap if faith to be interested in Caffu Zafeen but there are enough positives to make him interesting here. 

The son of Exceed And Excel showed plenty of pace when trained by James Tate last season and made the frame at Southwell, Chepstow and Yarmouth in his final three races without getting his head in front. 

Gelded and switched to the yard of David Simcock over the winter, Caffu Zafeen attracted support on his first two starts this term without looking like landing the cash. And on his latest start, at Southwell, he again faded after being up with the early pace. 

He needs to get back in the groove but he’s been freshened up, is back on turf and is now 6lb lower than when a fair fourth at Yarmouth in September. Perhaps more significant, he’s dropping to 5f for the first time – he’s often shaped as if worth a go over the minimum trip – and has also had a wind operation since last in action. 

Simcock enjoyed a welcome double on Saturday and Rossa Ryan, not a regular rider for the yard, is snapped up to ride.