Matt Tombs: Getting an edge in the key races at the Dublin Racing Festival

Matt Tombs' Cheltenham Betting Preview is now available to order. All 28 races are analysed in depth. Click here for more details.

Welcome to the second in what I’m hoping, next season, will become a series of previews to some of the big meetings throughout the autumn and winter.

This Betting Preview focuses on what is arguably becoming the biggest meeting before the Cheltenham Festival, the Dublin Racing Festival.

The creation of the Dublin Racing Festival last year was a brilliant initiative, giving focus to racing fans at what had become a quieter part of the season.

The timing is ideal coming five to six weeks after the Christmas festivals and five to six weeks before Cheltenham, which should encourage a large proportion of the best Irish horses in the relevant divisions to run here.

In particular, it should be a shot in the arm for the Unibet Irish Gold Cup, previously run the following week which with modern training methods was deemed by some as too close to Cheltenham.

The races were mainly taken from various Leopardstown cards during January and February, but there are other additions such as the Ladbrokes Dublin Chase, which was previously run as the Tied Cottage at Punchestown.

I’m hoping and expecting the meeting to thrive, though the dry autum/winter may mean that we will look back on the 2019 meeting as one that wasn’t as strong as others. Time will tell. That’s because this year is likely to produce ground with the words good and/or yielding in it.

Importantly, that is not the result of a short dry spell and good drainage causing the top to dry out with a high water table underneath.

The water table is relatively low after the ultra-dry winter, which means that while recent rain keeps plenty of moisture in the top, there is not the give underneath – hence the ongoing theme we have had this season of lots of horses not being risked on what is apparently ground on the slow side of good.

This year’s meeting also takes place with a bit of a question mark about the form of the two biggest yards, Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins.

Both are having plenty of winners but, at the same time, quite a few are running poorly. It’s always hard to tell in advance when that is going to come to an end but this may be a year where the prizes are shared out a little more widely than we have come to expect in recent times.

There are plenty of familiar features including Key Trends and Predictability Factor.

The Key Trends section includes ‘second generation’ or ‘P&L Trends’ – trends that have been profitable to follow, not just numerically strong.

That helps identify the under-bet horses rather than simply the ones with the typical winning profile, which are often well found in the market. That crucial difference will hopefully be a big help to you in finding value at the Dublin Racing Festival.

Unless specifically stated, I’ve ignored the fact that race dates have changed and am using my usual sample of all renewals this century which generally means a sample of 19.

However, as the racing powerbase has shifted from Britain to Ireland in recent years, many of these races have become much more competitive, changing out of all recognition. There’s a danger that looking at the sample of 19 renewals might therefore be misleading. While focusing on recent renewals brings all the usual dangers of small samples, there is the chance of spotting emerging themes before the market has caught on.

I’ll be trying to mix the best of both those approaches throughout this Betting Preview.

For new readers, Predictability Factor looks at the multiple of the SP and winners’ position in the market to determine which, if any, parts of the market are favoured by the nature of the race.

For anyone reading this who didn’t see the Cheltenham November Meeting Guide in the autumn, there is also Festival Formlines? which looks at how the form of the race has subsequently worked out at Cheltenham.

For some of the conditions races, especially those in open company, the Dublin Racing Festival is the last major set of trials, and given the weather has led to many of the Cheltenham ante-post markets being much more open this year, the Dublin Racing Festival could have an even bigger impact than usual.

Even if the horse you’re interested in backing ante-post for Cheltenham isn’t running here, the clues from this meeting can make this weekend a good time to be striking ante-post bets.

There’s a fantastic weekends racing to look forward to, I hope this Betting Preview helps you make it a successful punting weekend.

Click on the links below to read all of Matt's top guides:

Matt Tombs' Cheltenham Betting Preview is now available to order. All 28 races are analysed in depth. Click here for more details.