Martin Dixon's Saturday tips: 16-1 chance among four bets

Hopefully this is the day everything drops into place in a big handicap for the talented Johnnywho. He's made good progress over the last twelve months, but unfortunately has had some near misses along the way, including at Ascot last time when he got motoring a little too late over a shorter trip than this.

Looking at the shape of a race and how it's likely to develop is a big factor in my punting and I'm expecting the pair at the top of the betting, Konfusion and Myretown, both to be positively ridden as usual and there must be a chance they dual deep into the race and soften each other up somewhat for the stout-staying Johnnywho to pounce.

I've no doubt this return to a longer distance is a positive for the O'Neill horse and I expect the track at Haydock to play to his strengths too.

A large field handicap hurdle and several with claims, but I've noted Smile Back down as a likely improver for a longer distance on both of her handicap starts so far and she's of interest trying three miles for the first time here.

A stoutly-bred mare, she was successful in a point-to-point and made a bright start under Rules in a bumper at Carlisle last season, looking a stout stayer even then, and on her most recent start at Leicester she rallied pluckily having been outpaced early in the straight.

I think that's probably strong form - the winner, third and fourth had all won their previous starts - and I like Smile Back's prominent run style for this track at Taunton.

When Wasthatok first arrived in the UK a couple of years ago he brought with him an official rating of 120, based on the very best of his Irish form. Although he spent a while in the doldrums, he's really thrived again back over hurdles in recent months and is still very feasibly handicapped in my opinion.

A very strong traveller who comes from off the pace, the prospect of a highly contested gallop on the front end will hopefully tee things up nicely for him to come into things late and best odds of 16-1 at the time of writing make a fair bit of each-way appeal. 

Very few of the 15-strong field for this low-grade handicap chase have any upside whatsoever and I think Ted The Thief is the clear exception to that. Only a six-year-old, he had plenty of experience in point-to-points, winning one at the sixth time of asking, and switched to fences for handicaps the last twice he's shaped to me like he can definitely defy a basement mark of just 75.

On his most recent outing at Wincanton he pulled well clear of everything else with a pair of improving horses at this level, with sixteen lengths back to the remainder, and I suspect a minimal 1lb rise for that effort underestimates what he did.