Martin Dixon: my three best bets for Satuday

As you expect for the EBF Final, this is a deeply competitive handicap, but Peso seems to have been overlooked somewhat by the market – he’s  16-1 with bet365 and William Hill at the time of writing but a general 10-1 elsewhere - and I've been taken by the progress he's made this season whilst also getting the strong impression stepping up in distance will bring about more improvement. 

He stormed away from his rivals in a Newbury novice in December and then bumped into Willie Mullins' Chart Topper at Wetherby, with that rival franking the form with a good second in Kelso's Grade Two Premier Novices' Hurdle last weekend. Drying ground is no problem and I'll be backing him each way. 

Regular readers will know I put up Spirits Bay at Haydock in January where I felt the tactics were wrong, ridden too close to the pace, and I remain of the opinion he's a well handicapped horse. Hopefully, in this big field he'll be seen to better effect coming from off what ought to be a red-hot gallop. 

Thankfully the handicapper hasn't moved him having finished only five lengths behind Constitution Hill last time (not that I'm taking that literally!), Sam Twiston-Davies jumps on him for the first time, which I view as a positive given his big-race experience, and on his only previous visit to Sandown he ran a stormer. 

The early signs from Walk Like The Man's recent Plumpton win are that it was a much stronger piece of form than you might imagine for that track with the soundly-beaten fourth (Ede'iffs Rock) and sixth (John W Creasy) subsequently winning, whilst that performance was also backed up by a fast time. 

All things considered, I suspect a 4lb rise underestimates him and he's also only just getting going for the in-form Moore yard having joined them only this season.