Lydia Hislop's Road To Cheltenham 16: Four more bets for the Festival

We’re on the brink of the Cheltenham Festival, kids, so I’m pretty much devoting this section to a Boodles Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle preview. Try to contain your excitement.

Had Cheveley Park Stud and new trainer Henry de Bromhead been tempted explore a mark of 147, Quilixios would have become the highest-rated horse yet to take part in the 16 years of this event – trumping Mr Thriller, beaten off a mark of 145 in 2009.

Yet he belongs in Friday week’s Grade One – not just because his form merits it but also the Triumph’s superior test of stamina will play more to his strengths than the helter-skelter Old Course.

The British handicapper pegs Quilixios just 2lb behind his former stablemate Zanahiyr and, although at their respective best I’d have the latter further clear, the New Course could help bring them closer together. For this race, their joint exit means the weights will have risen by at least 8lb.

The new joint top-weights for the 2021 Fred Winter weights are Finale runner-up Nassalam and scrappy-jumping Youmdor. Neither is a cast-iron participant, as both hold alternative Triumph engagements, but I think we can reasonably expect one of these 141-rated juveniles to take part.

Certainly, this seems to be the plan for Nassalam despite trainer Gary Moore acknowledging that he’ll most likely have to shoulder top-weight. The highest-rated winner of this race to date has been Band Of Outlaws off 139 in 2019, although Aramax was only assessed at a pound less last year. It might be that a trend for a higher-quality winner is developing, with the spread of weights usually coming in at no more than a stone.

However, trends could take one hell of a beating this season. The twin agents of Covid and Brexit mean that it’s more expensive and logistically demanding to travel from Ireland and, wherever they live, owners can’t attend the Festival, so the number of entries is down in almost all handicaps. That said, there are likely to have been fewer speculative engagements, too, and the Boodles Fred Winter attracted a comparatively robust entry of 44 for a maximum field size of 22.

Interestingly, Moore has indicated that a change of tactics will likely be employed on Nassalam following his defeat last month at Haydock by the horse I believe currently to be Britain’s best juvenile – Monmiral, who won’t be running at the Festival in any guise. You should see him at Aintree, however, at a fixture where I expect his trainer Paul Nicholls to put up a powerful display.

“I was slightly disappointed with the way that he got beat by Monmiral,” Moore said, of Nassalam. “We might ride him a little bit differently next time out. We rode him from the front there and maybe we might hold on to him a bit longer and see if that gets any improvement out of him.”

Nassalam probably was a bit below his best at Haydock compared with his second to Triumph hopeful Adagio in the Grade One Finale Hurdle in early January, when he got towed along by a tearaway front runner but yet probably still did a bit too much himself. Yet I can’t help feeling he might have plateaued for now – or, more accurately, that there will be better handicapped horses among his rivals.

It sounded unlikely that Youmdor had booked himself a ticket to the Festival when Willie Mullins spoke at Cheltenham’s zoom press conference last month. He observed that he’d chucked the error-prone juvenile into a Grade One against the likes of Quilixios at the Dublin Racing Festival, despite him having fallen at Fairyhouse three weeks earlier.

“I took a chance and obviously it didn’t pay off,” Mullins said, of his 57-length defeat in a first-time hood after again not jumping well. However, you can never say never until declaration time with Mullins – and, accordingly, stablemate Saint Sam has been mentioned for both the Fred Winter and Triumph. In his sportinglife.com stable tour with Fran Berry last Friday, however, he was more definitely leaning towards the latter.

You can assuredly mark up the keen Saint Sam for forcing a strong pace when beaten by Quilixios in the Spring and he was better than the bare form previously behind Zanahiyr, when checked in the straight in the denouement of a steadily run race. Yet the plain facts remain that he has something still to find with both of those rivals. He would be interesting if slipped into the Fred Winter, however, even off a mark of 139.

Working down the weights in the Fred Winter brings us to Cabot Cliffs, who ran away with a Warwick juvenile event a couple of weeks ago, thus bringing to an end the Triumph Hurdle aspirations of Heross Du Seuil.

Nicky Henderson had observed beforehand that the latter would have to be “impressive” in order to take up that engagement after ducking the Adonis. In mitigation, the odds-on favourite had been trekking all over the country from one abortive assignment to another and so probably hasn’t had the best of preparations for a young horse.

Meanwhile, the ever-hooded winner – carrying a double penalty for his two previous successes – bounded to the front approaching the first hurdle and was never headed, ultimately triumphing by 17 lengths. He’s got a mark of 137 for the Fred Winter and is highly likeable, but those tactics will be hard to replicate at Cheltenham. He should ensure a strong and sustained pace, however, and I suspect he’ll still be in the mix at the final flight.

Next up are the Joseph O’Brien-trained pair of Druid’s Altar and Busselton, both of whom have a mark of 135. The latter appears the more interesting, having progressed with each start and being far from flattered by his close-up third behind Quilixios and Saint Sam in the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle, the rest nowhere. He would receive 4lb from the latter for a disparity of under five lengths here and is likely to improve again.

Druid’s Altar beat subsequent Naas winner Zoffanien under a 5lb claimer in mid-February, appreciating a drop in grade, but appears more of a known quantity.

O’Brien has already won this Festival event two years ago with Band Of Outlaws, not to mention the 2016 Triumph with another juvenile in Ivanovich Gorbatov. Busselton is available at 8/1 and I expect those odds to shorten markedly in the coming days, so he’s going to be my first position in this race.

Zoffanien’s recent nine-length success in a juvenile handicap illustrated a style of going that should be suited by the Fred Winter, for which he’s now got a mark of 130 and has already comfortably made the cut. But he’s got an ungainly head carriage and his third behind Coltor there earlier in the season demonstrated a tendency to hang fire under pressure. By contrast, Coltor cuts a determined figure and looks a player, set to receive 3lb from Zoffanien.

An even more recent item of evidence emerged at Wincanton last Wednesday when Balko Saint narrowly got the better of Robin’s Dream in a protracted battle, after they’d slipped a defensively ridden field from an early stage. The runner-up headed him between the final two flights, only to fluff the last, but then appeared more comfortably held than the winning margin might suggest.

This success earned Balko Saint a 5lb penalty for the Fred Winter and, while he looks to have improved during his break and since finishing more than nine lengths adrift of Duffle Coat at Cheltenham in November, his jumping can be a shade airy. He may lack the street-smarts for this.

Others to mention at this point in the weights are Riviere D’Etel – a filly who raced against elders last time out at Navan, showing a tendency to jump right, and may have plateaued – and her former stablemate at Elliott's Longclaw. He joined John McConnell’s yard in mid-February and will appreciate a strongly-run race. A sound surface will be important to him, so keep an eye on the unsettled forecast over the coming days.

Relatively extensive racing experience and returning to a greater stamina test than Musselburgh are both positives for Historic Heart, but he’s already shaping as though he needs further.

Glorious Zoff has a regressive profile in three starts over hurdles but did register a career-best on the Flat at Dundalk in January, replete with a first-time tongue-tie, and is another who may need drying conditions.

That leads us to the 131-rated Hell Red – one of two remaining entries in this race for Paul Nicholls, who’s won this race three times in its history and boasts a particularly good record with French recruits.

He had an operation to correct his breathing after pulling up behind Duffle Coat last November and returned with a lesser performance than his Chepstow debut win for the yard in October when third at Wincanton last month. Well positioned among the front trio, he was clinging onto their coat-tails in the straight, looked fatigued with a disorganised jump at the last and faded, only clinging onto third. He may have needed the run, if you’re searching for excuses.

I prefer his stablemate and fellow French recruit Houx Gris, who first struck me as a Fred Winter type a while back when finishing third behind Adagio and Nassalam in the Finale on his UK debut. I liked the way he kept pace with those rivals until making a tired mistake two out, suggesting he’d do better with further acclimatisation. There was further encouragement for this theory from his trainer’s pre-race comment that he was running Houx Gris unusually quickly after only acquiring him in November. The Old Course also looks likely to suit well.

But now everyone else thinks so, too, as he’s tumbled in to 5/1 from 20/1. That said, there’s a band of juveniles at a similar price just behind, so I’m anticipating imminent upheaval in this market. I’m therefore going to take up a second position now, which may or may not prove a timely move. The argument for making the move now is collateral form with the wise-guy horse; the argument against is the horse hailing from a less well-known yard.

Homme Public was narrowly beaten by Houx Gris at Auteuil last October, the winner perhaps crucially having grabbed the stands’ rail. The runner-up has since joined Oliver Greenall’s yard and built on his Catterick debut, when said to have needed the run, with a likeable success at Market Rasen last month. I liked how much he readily found and how instinctive his jumping was, especially when in close to an obstacle. I reckon 28/1 NRNB, already each-way 5 places, with Sky Bet is a price worth taking.

Success here would be the most significant yet in Greenall’s burgeoning career, but he’s already enjoying a standout season with 29 winners and a strike-rate of 11%.

Of the rest in the Fred Winter, Sage Advice readily accounted for Tinnahalla at Kempton in January. The winner was briefly dabbled with as a potential Triumph type but got trampled over by Cabot Cliffs at Warwick, not helped by a critical error three out. He subsequently finished last of three at Fontwell, never looking happy in chewed-up heavy ground and failing to jump with any fluency when trying to make up track position on the front two.

Having finished out a race properly for the first time at Kempton, Tinnahalla went on to produce much-improved form to beat Homme Public at Catterick.

Although he was both match-fit and more experienced in race-craft compared with the runner-up, meaning I fancy this form to be reversed, this nonetheless suggested he’s peaking at the right time.

After disappointing behind Heross Du Seuil at Kempton – a defeat jockey Adrian Heskin was inclined to blame on a right-handed speed track – the “tough as nails” Her Indoors won a mares’ event at Doncaster by a comfortable margin. As a thorough stayer on the flat, she can be expected to find some improvement on this terrain at Cheltenham.

Soldier On Parade disappointed last time out in the Adonis, despite having just registered a career-best on the Flat, while Jeff Kidder ran more than respectably behind Zanahiyr in December but was probably flattered by his proximity in a steadily run race. Burgundy Man would be making his UK debut for Venetia Williams in this and I found him hard to get a handle on.

Finally, following news from Willie Mullins last Saturday that French Aseel has suffered a setback and will miss the JCB Triumph Hurdle, hitherto unheralded stablemate Haut En Couleurs has been backed across the board.

Ruby Walsh and I discussed him in Show 14 of Road To Cheltenham, but the horse hasn’t even merited a mention in his trainer’s various Festival dispatches – the most recent of which was published on sportinglife.com only last Friday.

Of course, Mullins scooped last year’s Triumph with the equally uncelebrated Burning Victory, who’d run just once for him before picking up the pieces of a race blown apart by the unfortunate Goshen. Yet Haut En Couleurs hasn’t even achieved that bare minimum for his new yard – his sole hurdling start came in France last October for previous handler Gabriel Leenders (who trains Baladin De Mesc, by the way) – and, unlike Burning Victory, he lacks any Flat-racing experience to fall back on.

The market move might suggest that Saint Sam heads to the Fred Winter, as Haut En Couleurs is now half the price of that stablemate despite the former having been marketed (albeit not unambiguously) in those recent stable tours as the yard’s number two behind French Aseel. Clearly, he’d have more of a chance in the handicap.

Teahupoo has been withdrawn from the Fred Winter but remains in the Triumph at this stage. He only ran two Saturdays ago at Fairyhouse, when making it three from three – two of those victories in Ireland for Elliott.

It was a lop-sided contest in which his only real danger, Irish and hurdles debutant Tax For Max, refused to drop his head and race properly for Paul Townend. That was despite him wearing a hood – he looks like a challenging project for Team Mullins. The winner travelled strongly throughout, moved into at least a share of the lead from five out and then went clear approaching the last, where he slammed on the brakes but still managed to win by seven lengths.

Elliott did not rule out the Triumph for the winner but also mentioned a Fairyhouse Grade Two over Easter. We wait to hear what de facto caretaker trainer Denise ‘Sneezy’ Foster thinks.

Tritonic is the highest-rated Flat horse whom Alan King has switched to hurdling – and he knows a thing or two about winning the Triumph, having landed the prize in 2005 with Penzance and 2007 with Katchit, who went on to win the Champion Hurdle the following year.

This horse stayed at least a mile-and-a-half on the Flat, ending up rated 99, but suffered from a tendency to keenness. There was no sign of that in winning the Grade Two Adonis Hurdle – in fact he had to be chased along by Heskin after the sixth in order to regain contention – and he was at his most impressive from approaching the last until hitting the line, strongly.

“We wanted to get a bit more experience into Tritonic and he’ll have learned plenty on the inside today,” King commented afterwards. “Once or twice he goes to sleep, but as soon as Adrian gives him a squeeze he's back on the bridle – I couldn't be more pleased with him.

“We gave him a proper holiday after the last Flat season – he was gelded and had six weeks in the field... I felt we had to get two runs into him if he was a Triumph horse. We were going to come straight here, but I thought that wasn’t right and he needed more experience... He’s not slow and will have the gears to hold a position at Cheltenham. I loved the way he went away from the last.”

Tritonic’s jumping needs brushing up but the Adonis was only his second starts over hurdles and he’s clearly got much potential – albeit, as discussed on the show last week, his promotion to favourite or joint-favourite seemed a shade excessive. Zanahiyr’s success at Leopardstown last December remains the best item of form in the race. He should still be clear favourite in my book, assuming he is unaffected by the upheaval at his yard.

For the non-Cheltenham notebook, John Locke shaped quite promisingly on his hurdling debut in the Adonis but French raider Margaret’s Legacy faded in the straight and Honneur D’Ajonc – who fell at the last there in December when disputing the lead with Heross Du Seuil – jumped awkwardly. Perhaps that experience has knocked him back for now, or else he may want softer ground. Whatever the case, he’s been scratched from the Fred Winter.

Like the juvenile-hurdling section, I’m concentrating here on just one race in particular and that’s the Sam Vestey National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Chase.

Due to lingering ambiguity about some of the key players’ final destinations, it’s a race that is still not as well-formed as the Boodles Fred Winter but the critical horses are readily identifiable.

Even though the distance of this Festival contest was shortened to 3m6f from four miles last season, Ravenhill was still a quintessential winner in that he brought extensive handicap-chase form to the party and was having his seventh start. Just as typically, the short-priced favourite Carefully Selected arrived with the more exciting unbeaten profile but discovered he lacked the requisite grit for the task – his jumping let him down.

This year – hopefully as a one-off – there is an even more fundamental difference to weigh up: the fact that amateurs are currently prohibited from taking part under the UK government’s Covid protocols for elite sport. That means the race could pan out more conventionally – or, given the contest is usually dominated by vastly experienced and highly talented amateurs, it may make no difference at all. My approach is to cover both eventualities.

WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup candidate Royale Pagaille looms over this contest – albeit he should have been looming larger and for longer as seemingly the NRNB markets only belatedly copped on that this race is a credible option for the horse.

Owner Rich Ricci, who’s twice seen Djakadam [50p in the jar for regular readers] finish second in the Gold Cup, will have to choose between the views of his advisor Joe Chambers, who wants to go big, and the characteristic caution of his trainer Venetia Williams. Last week’s market move was taken to mean this was the preferred target but Chambers has stated that nothing will be decided until after the five-day entries have been published.

Royale Pagaille, who laughed at a mark of 156 in last month’s Peter Marsh Chase, clearly has by far the best form in this race. He also boasts the requisite profile, given this is his fourth season over fences. He was a maiden over the larger obstacles in his native France prior to joining Williams, for whom he also failed to score in two starts last season. He’s been a very different proposition this time around, bounding through the handicap ranks.

The doubt is, whatever his ultimate Festival target, all three impressive successes this season have come at flat tracks – twice at Haydock and also Kempton in between – and his low-slung French style of jumping might see him caught out in the heat of a Festival battle. That pressure is likely to be greater in a Gold Cup, of course, but there are more fences to jump in a NH Chase. I’m inclined to take him on at the price, given that doubt.

I’m also going to oppose the autumn ante-post favourite Galvin, who has moved from the yard of disgraced trainer Gordon Elliott to that of Ian Ferguson. Owner Ronnie Bartlett has strong ties with Ferguson, who won Fairyhouse’s champion point-to-point bumper with dual future Festival winner Simonsig for him. Ferguson was also successful in the 2011 Cheltenham Foxhunter with Zemsky and was responsible for both breaking-in and pre-training Galvin himself.

Galvin also has the right profile for this race, no doubt. He’s a second-season novice chaser and even finished second in the now-defunct Northern Trust Novices’ Handicap Chase at last year’s fixture. This term, he’s been unbeaten in four starts, culminating in a seven-length defeat of Soldier Of Love over three miles of Cheltenham’s Old Course.

That was his first attempt at the trip and he powered up the hill in a style that suggested he had plenty of petrol left for a longer trip. However, he was also patiently ridden against the more aggressively handled runner-up and that might have exaggerated the winning margin somewhat. His jumping wasn’t always fluent either, although the step up in distance might partly alleviate that quibble. I just think he’s too short – and he’ll be shorter still if Royale Pagaille defects.

I prefer one of the other darts Elliott had at this event – the lightly raced Escaria Ten, who remains at his Cullentra yard in the hands of Denise Foster. He has shaped for some time as though a more rigorous test of stamina will bring about further improvement, in particular when sticking stubbornly to his task behind Brown Advisory hopeful Eklat De Rire at Naas last time out.

He did finish only 15th in last year’s Martin Pipe but was bang there until approaching the final furlong and probably just got rushed off his feet late on. He’s also a much better chaser than hurdler.

As this would only be his fourth start over the larger obstacles, he would be a relatively unusual winner of this contest but retaining the assistance of Jack Kennedy would be an advantage. Given that his owners, the McNeill family, have indicated that the NH Chase is now the preferred target for this much-discussed horse, I’m inclined to take a risk with the 10/1 offered on ante-post terms by William Hill rather than two points shorter NRNB.

Stablemate Pencilfulloflead, who was my selection for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase prior to his uncharacteristic sticky-jumping display behind Escaria Ten at Naas last time, and in particular Longhouse Poet, who has always shaped like a thorough stayer, are hugely significant withdrawals at the five-day stage.

Upped to 3m1f for the first time as a chaser last time out, Longhouse Poet produced a career-best to fend off Run Wild Fred - who stands his ground in this but is also entered in the Ultima and Kim Muir - and subsequent Punchestown Grand National Trial winner The Big Dog at that track. Run Wild Fred will benefit from the experience he garnered in more seasoned company when second to Coko Beach in the Thyestes.

Were the ex-Elliott now Foster-trained Coko Beach to line up here, he would clearly be a massive player. He’s still entered in Sunday’s Leinster National and his former trainer had spoken of keeping him “at home” prior to the Irish Grand National. But, with a new handler nothing is set in stone. Undoubtedly, he boasts that ideal combination of high-class handicap form and sufficient experience.

Other dangerous floaters are Next Destination, whom I’m still assuming will instead contest the Brown Advisory, and recent Reynoldstown winner Remastered, who remains in the Ultima as well as that Grade One novice event. Remastered has been progressive over the larger obstacles this season and jumps superbly. He also shapes as though he’ll improve again for a marathon trip and will certainly put the pace to this race. Drying ground is likely to be an issue, however.

Which brings me to my outside shout for this event – or, rather, brings me back to him. At 33/1, Soldier Of Love is far too big a price for this event comparative to Galvin, given there are reasons to think he could have finished closer when they clashed back in October. He jumped brilliantly that day, in stark contrast to his performance there the following month when he palpably struggled to pick his feet out of the soft ground.

His form substantiates this interpretation – he was a progressive on a sound surface in late summer, having left behind his novice-chasing form of the previous season in staying handicaps at Bangor and Newton Abbot. He may lack the long-term appeal of Escaria Ten but he is the type of horse who puts his experience to good use in a race like this – and interestingly, he remains only in this after trainer Paul Nicholls scratched him from the Ultima.

I could see The Mighty Don, who’s a bit of a clutz, running well in this for similar reasons – this test of stamina is right up his street and he ran well here, sticking to his task after being outpaced behind Ultima favourite (but withdrawn from this event) Happygolucky, in December. Ditto fellow second-season chaser Nestor Park, who should be plugging on late.

Snow Leopardess will also thrive over a more extreme test of stamina and comes here after an encouraging second in the Roland Meyrick Handicap Chase in December, but she’ll need to improve again.

This is Lord Royal’s type of trip, as he showed when staying on over three miles in heavy ground at Navan last time out, but his lightly raced profile is off-putting in this context. Ofalltheginjoints will need to brush up his jumping in this grade. Eden Du Houx, Lithic and Macgiloney aren’t good enough.

Advised 02/12/20: Zanahiyr at 5/1 (general) for the JCB Triumph Hurdle

Advised 31/12/20: Sire Du Berlais at 10/1 (general) for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle

Advised 13/01/21: Fakiera at 20/1 NRNB with Paddy Power for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Advised 20/01/21: Darver Star each-way at 25/1 NRNB with Paddy Power for the Sporting Life Arkle

Advised 20/01/21: Pencilfulloflead each-way at 16/1 NRNB with Paddy Power for the Festival Novices’ Chase

Advised 10/02/21: Fakir D’Oudairies at 12/1 each-way NRNB with Paddy Power for the Ryanair

Advised 20/01/21: Allaho at 10/1 each-way NRNB with Paddy Power for the Ryanair Chase

Advised 28/01/21: Min at 5/1 win only NRNB with Paddy Power for the Ryanair Chase

Advised 28/01/21: Elimay at 9/2 each-way NRNB with Paddy Power for the Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase