Lydia Hislop's Road To Cheltenham: Mister Fisher has me hooked

This is the final Road before Christmas. Consider it that all-too-familiar approach to your family home, where you can enjoy your last moments of self-indulgent peace before you submit yourself to making appropriate responses to Mrs Brown’s Boys or Paul O’Grady: For The Love Of Dogs At Christmas. Good luck. They serve wine for a reason.

Beforehand, don’t forget to tune in for the TV version of Road To Cheltenham this Thursday at 9pm, as usual, because I will be joined by a special guest.

O, NOT Jeremy Corbyn, although he damn well ought to be at a loose end. Nor BoJo, although Racing TV might soon end up the only media outlet via which the Conservatives will consent to be interviewed. Not whatsername either. There: I’ve narrowed it down for you.

The eye told you Cheltenham’s Unibet International Hurdle was steadily run but because they were suddenly forced to look lively from the distant penultimate flght, it paradoxically ended up as a test of stamina over a short distance. The extent to which this is demonstrably true is quite startling.

Until two out, this aspiring field had dawdled two seconds behind the earlier juvenile race. From that point, they were more than four-and-a-half seconds quicker. It was a highly unsatisfactory indicator for the Unibet Champion Hurdle because the speedier horses (many of whom had failed to settle) therefore got down to it sooner than ideal and so the advantage swung to the stayers late on.

As a horse whose best form to date had come over an extended 2m5f at Sandown and whose trainer Nicky Henderson had even tried him over three miles, Call Me Lord was able to prevail over a rallying Ballyandy in these circumstances. However, the story of the race also explains why he did not produce form anywhere near his peak in quelling a couple of Champion Hurdle aspirants and fringe graded performers.

Call Me Lord was racing left-handed for the first time for Henderson, who had always maintained the horse needed a right-handed track and afterwards suggested he’d favoured the returning Triumph Hurdle winner, Pentland Hills, beforehand.

“He [Call Me Lord] always used to lug everything right at home,” he explained on Racing TV. “For some reason he seems to have lost that trait at home – not that we’ve done anything miraculous – but he’s been straighter and you’re limited as to what you can do if you’re totally biased to one direction.

“So Anthony [Bromley, racing manager to owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede] said: ‘Come on, let’s give this a go and see.’ I said: ‘OK.’ I thought Pentland Hills would win but there you go! And for once it pays off to say ‘OK, it was worth running two.’”

James Bowen rode Call Me Lord – replacing the owners’ retained rider Daryl Jacob, who is on the sidelines with a broken hand – and recorded his first Grade Two success, to add to his hitherto-greatest triumph on Raz De Maree in the 2018 Welsh Grand National.

Bowen had Call Me Lord close enough to the pace but his mount was slightly outpaced and cramped for room as it lifted from two out; he had to be worked upon to rally to join the smoother-travelling Pentland Hills – indeed, early on, that horse was far too free – and the better-positioned Ch’Tibello in a line of three at the final hurdle.

Only then did the winner exhibit his old trait: lugging slightly to his right and on landing bumping into Ch’Tibello, who himself was jumping it untidily leftwards anyway. Pentland Hills jumped it cleanly and led briefly but was soon tackled by the race-fit Call Me Lord, who was also in receipt of 3lb from his stablemate and 4lb from the 2019 County Hurdle winner Ch’Tibello.

Once Pentland Hills had been passed by eventual second Ballyandy and had slipped to fourth, jockey Nico de Boinville eased off and was caught for fourth by the hitherto outpaced Monsieur Lecoq, meaning his mount’s margin of defeat was exaggerated. The vibes were nonetheless positive for the former juvenile, who had won at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals on the final two of his three outings over hurdles last season.

Henderson pronounced himself “without question... very, very pleased with Pentland Hills”.

“He was a bit fresh, his jumping was good – too good, he kept jumping his way into the race, into the bridle,” he said. “To me he travelled like the best horse in the race, throughout the whole race, until he just got tired after the last. I still think he’s a real player [for the Champion Hurdle].”

On strict form terms, Pentland Hills achieved little or nothing more than he already held in the bank but it was a promising reappearance. Odds of 8-1 don’t marry up with that sentence, however. His trainer has since confirmed that neither he nor Call Me Lord will appear again until the new year.

Henderson has also acknowledged that the chances of Buveur D’Air recovering from the setback he sustained in the Fighting Fifth in time for the Champion Hurdle “are like Altior in the King George – extremely unlikely”.

It might have been a throwaway line but he then went on to suggest it was not impossible that the dual Champion Chase winner could revert to the smaller obstacles. “I would rule nothing out and someone yesterday suggested the Champion Hurdle,” he said, admittedly before winning the International. “Altior is the fastest horse I’ve got in the place.”

On that bombshell, we should note that Seven Barrows might be triple-handed in Kempton’s Grade One Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle next week via last year’s surprise heroine Verdana Blue, recent Elite winner Fusil Raffles and smooth Gerry Feilden victor Epatante.

Verdana Blue is “not as good in the soft but you always have a better chance of getting it at Kempton”, Fusil Raffles “has come on a hell of a lot” and Epatante is “almost certain to run”, Henderson told the Racing Post this week.

Should Fusil Raffles win at Kempton, he could be challenging for Champion Hurdle favouritism and the next question would be whether he handles left-handed tracks.

He was beaten at odds-on in a French conditions hurdle last time he tried that orientation and there were a couple of scruffy jumps but he was also given quite a bit to do by his rider and was giving a lot of weight away.

Returning to the International, Elixir De Nutz was competing for the first time since winning the Grade One Tolworth Hurdle against fellow novices almost a year earlier. He took the field along keenly, in his typical swift-jumping style, until headed approaching the last and fading to finish seventh, beaten eight-and-a-half lengths.

A marked drift in the betting had foretold an underwhelming result and trainer Colin Tizzard’s post-race comments tallied with that dynamic. Having said beforehand that he expected Elixir De Nutz to “improve for the run”, he afterwards drew positives from the comeback – even if he became a shade more doubtful the longer he spoke.

“He ran fine, because he has nearly had a year off. We were very careful when he came in [to the yard at the start of the season] because we didn’t want to aggravate that little injury,” Tizzard said. “It looked to me like he needed the run and you will see a different horse next time, I think. Some people were disappointed, but I wasn’t.

“We can’t rule him out of being a Champion Hurdle horse yet because until two furlongs out, he was going fine and then he just got tired. We might have a re-think after his next run. But we have got to give him another chance because he blew up on Saturday and I knew he might. He will improve massively for that run.”

In Ireland, the clamour for trainer Gordon Elliott to run silky unbeaten novice Envoi Allen in the Champion Hurdle is getting louder but it’s not the trainer’s style.

Rather than take on Klassical Dream – the Sky Bet Supreme winner beaten on his seasonal debut by Saldier, himself since sidelined until the new year – in Leopardstown’s Grade One December Hurdle, Elliott has two novice options over the Christmas period.

When assessing this division for the Racing Post, Ruby Walsh commented: “The Champion Hurdle picture is foggy; it's not weak. If Fusil Raffles bolts up in the Christmas Hurdle and Klassical Dream wins at Leopardstown, all of a sudden what was this weak or glum picture becomes a lot more solid.

“It's only December and we're creating all this hype about it being the worst Champion Hurdle since the Champion Hurdle was invented. Please! A lot of it is hype driven because people want Envoi Allen to run in the Champion Hurdle.”

Paisley Park will face a maximum of five opponents, all of them currently rated at least 15lb his inferior in Ascot’s Grade One Marsh Hurdle this Saturday. [Come again? Oh... you mean the Long Walk Hurdle but are referring to it by its new sponsor’s name, as if it’s not important that racing fans recognise the identity of this race and that the sport celebrates its legacy. Nothing to see here – except myopia.]

At one point it had looked as though recent course winner If The Cap Fits would clash with the Stayers’ Hurdle champion but when the five-day entries were published on Monday, his name did not remain among them.

“The horse had a hard race when winning at Ascot last month and he's taken a bit more time to get over it than we had anticipated at the time so we decided to not even enter him,” trainer Harry Fry told the Racing Post.

“He actually seems fine in himself at present but there is no point in going for a Grade One prize like the-race-that-used-to-be-the-Long-Walk [you tell ’em, ’arry] unless you are completely happy with everything at this time of the season.”

Fry had not missed the significance of recent events, however. “The form of his Ascot win over Call Me Lord now looks very smart after Saturday as even the sixth home on that occasion, Blu Cavalier, who was beaten over 40 lengths, also won on Saturday at Doncaster,” he said.

If The Cap Fits could now head to Leopardstown for the Grade One Christmas Hurdle where he could encounter such as Benie Des Dieux, Honeysuckle, Apples Jade, Penhill or Bacardys. Otherwise, Fry indicated he would wait until Cheltenham’s Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day next month – where he could yet encounter Thistlecrack, another absentee on Saturday.

The Stayers’ Hurdle also got a definite mention, followed by “all being well, another crack at the Aintree race he won last season” – the Ryanair Liverpool Hurdle, where he beat Roksana a head in first-time cheekpieces.

Chief Marsh Hurdle – you know if you think about it – opponents this Saturday are headed by the mercurial L’Ami Serge, second to Sam Spinner in this race two years ago but sidelined since May 2018 (when rated a mere 10lb the favourite’s inferior), the popular and resurgent Tobefair and The Worlds End, beaten seven lengths by Paisley Park at Newbury last time out.

In the mares’ handicap hurdle that closed proceedings at Cheltenham last Saturday, Dame De Compagnie beat Indefatigable by four-and-a-half lengths in receipt of 5lb (watch above).

The winner had caught the eye when racing zestily on her return from 577 days absence in the Greatwood before losing her pitch at the second last and then rallying for fifth.

Both mares are smart, unexposed at two-and-a-half miles and were here delivering career-best performances. Dame De Compagnie missed her engagement in the 2018 Dawn Run due to a bad scope whereas Indefatigable finished a staying-on fifth in the Festival’s 2m1f Grade Two the following season.

To contextualise their current form, the Dame has at the very least 10lb to find on the 2018 Mares’ Hurdle winner, Benie Des Dieux. That’s provided Willie Mullins’ mare keeps to her feet, of course, and Ireland’s handicapper currently ranks this division’s rising force, Honeysuckle, 1lb her superior anyway.

We all tried to look surprised when Nicky Henderson announced last Saturday that Altior is “extremely unlikely” to run in next week’s King George VI Chase.

Although the Seven Barrows trainer went out of his way to stress how much he, jockey Nico de Boinville and owner Pat Pugh wanted to run in Kempton’s Christmas showpiece, his news merely confirmed what many of us had suspected. It had been on the wind for some time, ever since Altior clearly recoiled from his seasonal debut encounter with Cyrname at Ascot.

The tipping-point came when Altior worked that morning. “You couldn’t say he worked badly – he was working with two very good horses [L’Ami Serge and William Henry] – but normally he’d disappear past them and into Wantage,” Henderson said. “His work wasn’t disappointing but Nico’s feel from the horse was obviously disappointing to him, to me and obviously to the owners.”

Although he didn’t entirely close the door on the venture around which the horse’s entire campaign had been framed, Henderson acknowledged that his decision was “unlikely to change”. “We don’t want to put him into another fierce battle because we might undo everything,” he said. “If you throw him into a King George, you know you’re getting a hard race.”

By implication, Henderson denied that he’d underestimated Cyrname. “No, it wasn’t a tougher race than we expected. It was a tough race,” he said, although he later conceded that Altior “wasn’t as straight for Ascot as I thought he was and consequently he had a harder race, which showed”.

Henderson initially wouldn’t be drawn on what missing the intended introduction to three miles might mean for the remainder of Altior’s season but he later identified – to my reeling surprise – the Grade Two Desert Orchid Chase, the day after the King George and which the horse won by 19 lengths last year, as a potential next step.

“I'm going to have to leave everything open and the Desert Orchid is not a complete impossibility,” he said. "It's not the end of the three-mile plan, but the King George was the one we wanted.”

Should Altior pitch up there, we will learn a lot about where he’s at. I think we can confidently discard the idea of him trying three miles at any time before Aintree, if at all, but the Queen Mum and Ryanair remain live options – or even the Champion Hurdle, as I mentioned above, unless Henderson is enjoying a good troll. Whatever, this scenario has been by no means unforeseen.

Unfortunately, the same applies to news in trainer Willie Mullins’ Racing Post column that eight-times Grade One winner Douvan “is on the easy list again” following his successful return from a 569-day absence last month.

“We’re going to have to wait before he runs again,” Mullins said, ruling him out of participation over Christmas. “It’s not the same leg problem that limited his appearances in the past, but he has a problem with a hind leg and we’re going to have to be patient before any plans are made.”

Douvan has raced only three times since finishing injured in the 2017 Champion Chase, so – from the outside, as we necessarily are as punters – you’d be far from confident that he’ll return at all this season, even if you assume he retains all of his ability to be of real relevance to this race.

As a result of all of the above, I’m inclined to double down on my Altior position by suggesting Douvan’s stablemate Chacun Pour Soi at 4-1 for the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

It’s not a life-changing price but he has the potential to depose Altior as favourite should he win at Leopardstown over Christmas and even collapse in price should that rival underwhelm in the Desert Orchid. Plus Ruby Walsh, my co-host in the guest seat, reported in last week’s Road To Cheltenham TV show that he had been schooling the horse. What could possibly go wrong?

The major skirmishes in this division take place next week, so our news is confined to those horses who won’t be taking this tour of duty.

Henderson has ruled out 2017 winner Might Bite of the King George – a seemingly regressive chaser for whom he had also been contemplating a run over hurdles after an early exit on his seasonal debut at Aintree.

He has also pressed play on tape 1, side 1, refrain 1 – I have made allusion to this ancient practice before, kidz, bear with – about how he’s struggling to find suitable races for Might Bite and Santini.

The latest idea is that one will contest Cheltenham’s Cotswold Chase on Trials Day and the other the Denman Chase at Newbury the following month. No prizes for guessing were the latter will end up, if you read the first column in this series.

Yet my co-driver Ruby Walsh has long been shouting from the passenger seat that Henderson should be running Santini in next week’s Savills Chase – a race he won in 2013 with the previous term’s Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth.

Of course, he wouldn’t have done that with Santini – breathing operation or none – because it’s an actual horserace. He’s made that mistake once already this season and look where it landed him!

Vinndication, who held a King George entry, has been ruled out of Ascot’s Dave Dawes Silver Cup Chase this Saturday due to incurring a bone bruise. "He'll have a month on the easy list and hopefully he'll be back for the second half of the season,” reported trainer Kim Bailey. “He'll be properly assessed on January 10 and, if he's clean and OK, he'll carry on in training."

Bearing in mind this highly likeable chaser – who delivered a career best to win at Ascot last month – is yet to prove he’s as effective racing left-handed, he could be targeted at Punchestown if he recovers in time.

Aside from my fiendish Altior plan still clearly being in play, doubters, my only observation in this division concerns King George prospect Footpad.

Willie Mullins is having to seek a new jockey in the unfortunate absence of Daryl Jacob but has confirmed that the Kempton assignment “remains the target”. Were he to win – or shape like a stayer – in what’s promising to be a hot edition, Footpad might have to be refiled under the Gold Cup. His overall profile fails to convince me, however.

Familiarity bred respect in the case of Mister Fisher because the more I examined his Cheltenham victory last Saturday, the more I was impressed by it.

I’d held some stamina doubts and wondered about the suitability of an undulating track for this horse going into the Ryman Novices’ Chase but he came out the other side a length-and-a-quarter superior to recent Wetherby winner Good Boy Bobby and in an overall time that compared favourably with that of seasoned handicappers in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup.

At first, I put that down to the more experienced horses tanking a long at a stronger lick and then executing a slow-motion finish but crunching the numbers – as well as you can, with different camera shots and cursed vehicles getting in the way – revealed that was very much not the case.

The novices’ event was conducted a fraction more quickly to the eighth fence and a fraction more slowly to three out but the two races were pretty much on par until the latter point, from which Mister Fisher’s race was 3.6 seconds quicker in getting home.

That suggests that (a) the winner very much stayed the trip and (b) both he and the runner-up, who was conceding 5lb, are prime players for the Marsh Novices' Chase.

At this point, I ought to acknowledge that I have been sorely remiss in failing to notice that the JLT Novices' Chase has become the Marsh Novices' Chase. (You know, they of Marsh Hurdle fame.) So there's a Marsh this Saturday over hurdles and another Marsh in March over fences. Might there be another Marsh? Probably. Clear? Good.

Of the pair, I greatly prefer Mister Fisher because – as trainer Nicky Henderson and jockey Nico de Boinville (see above) pointed out, with sound reason – he prefers a sounder surface and therefore promises a great deal more to come. At 16-1, I’m inclined to roll the dice. His form is already good enough to place in most... er... Marshes.

The stumbling block for betting porpoises [sic] is, of course, Laurina, should she pitch up with her deadly 7lb mares’ allowance in the Marsh - see, it's rolling off the tongue now - rather than the Arkle.

If she heads to Leopardstown over Limerick for her Christmas engagement, the shorter-trip snowball will be rolling. Not that her trainer Willie Mullins will care. He’ll ultimately run her in whichever Festival race she’s most likely to win. For that reason, my suggestion is to back Mister Fisher each-way.

Stablemate Pym had won Cheltenham’s feature three-mile novices’ chase the previous day, underpinning the convincing impression he’d made when stepping up to three miles at Ascot. I’d come around to the notion that he was a weak finisher prior to that but the extra distance, a switch to chasing and a positive ride, to make the most of his technique, has been the making of him.

He jumped by far the best in a five-strong field – one of whom, Rockpoint, exercised his right not to take part – but de Boinville (see below) understandably wasn’t yet sure his mount has reached the standard required to be thinking RSA Insurance Chase.

The sharp-eared among you will have noticed that my usual co-pilot has gone cool on his Sam Spinner NH Chase project by dint of putting up the Mullins-trained Carefully Selected for that Cheltenham race.

However, Sam Spinner maintained his unbeaten record at Doncaster last Saturday with a – mostly – more convincing round of jumping than has to date been the case. You’d need to airbrush out his awkward leap at the first and those extra strides he slipped in at the sixth last, when almost unseating Joe Colliver, however.

What the form is worth is also questionable given one of his two opponents succeeded where the winner failed by decanting his jockey six out and 4-5 favourite Windsor Avenue – heralded beforehand by trainer Brian Ellison as “one of the best we’ve had” – scoped dirty in a post-race endoscopic examination and might have failed to stay.

Carefully Selected’s stablemate Bapaume was flawless on his second start over fences on Monday, winning Naas’s 2m3f beginners’ chase by an unextended five-and-a-half lengths. The omission of four fences helpfully placed an extra emphasis on stamina but his jumping was such as asset that it surely made no difference either way. Third in the 2017 Triumph and fourth in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle, Bapaume could yet develop into a RSA type.

At Hereford last Saturday, First Flow got off the mark over fences in a one-sided three-runner contest. Except when asked to break the race apart, he jumped inattentively – as if mentally reprising his Christmas shopping list – but still came home 20 lengths clear.

He’d previously finished second to both the clutz Summerville Boy on their mutual chase debut at Uttoxeter and the Henderson-trained Angels Breath at Ascot – and the latter horse is set to return to that track for a Grade Two this weekend after recently bouncing back from a dull piece of work.

“He has to have very soft ground but it looks like this is going to be his winter. I think there's a decent race in him,” observed Kim Bailey, trainer of First Flow’s trainer. “He probably has to go right-handed. He jumped right-handed at Uttoxeter at the end but funnily enough a couple of times at Hereford... he actually jumped left. He's a weird horse but he's a talented horse on heavy ground. The going is everything for him.”

Latest Exhibition turned over 1-3 favourite Andy Dufresne in a four-runner Grade Two novices’ hurdle at Navan on Sunday, despite meeting the sixth hurdle all wrong and making a serious blunder that left his back legs desperately flailing for traction for three strides.

Bryan Cooper, who was riding the six-year-old for the first time, gave him space to recover from that error but his mount ended up not forfeiting that much ground and reacted positively with a good jump at the next flight. The runner-up had travelled by far the more smoothly of the pair, however, with Latest Exhibition having been niggled along from an early stage.

This was still true as Cooper moved him upsides Andy Dufresne entering the home turn but, very quickly, the tables turned. Mark Walsh began moving his hands on the latter approaching three out and was rewarded with an error whereas Cooper successfully asked Latest Exhibition for a bold leap that took them into the lead.

Even so, it appeared on the run to two out that Andy Dufresne would master him – despite seemingly seeking to hang left – as he rallied to jump upsides again. But the winner had edged ahead approaching the last and, despite leaning left himself (mildly half-checking his rival), maintained then extended his advantage on the run to the line.

Trainer Paul Nolan cited the step up in trip for a gelding whose pedigree is long-suited in stamina as the prompt for this improved performance. “We'll make a plan for him now and maybe the Grade One at Leopardstown in February over 2m6f might be pencilled into the diary,” he said. “The Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham will hopefully be the long-term plan for him. He stays well.”

This was Latest Exhibition’s fifth career start. With four previous starts, last year’s Albert Bartlett winner, Minella Indo, was the least experienced horse in the past ten years to triumph in that Festival contest which, generally speaking, rewards experience. In fact, all three protagonists who hit the frame in last term’s event were unusually low on worldliness for this event.

The 2017 winner Penhill had, for example, raced 25 times before that success and the 2016 winner Unowhatimeanharry 17 times. As a rough rule of thumb, it had taken a smart horse to win it with just five or six starts under the belt – a future Gold Cup and RSA winner like Bobs Worth or Weapon’s Amnesty, who also won the RSA. A good sign for Minella Indo, perhaps? But I digress.

Back at Navan, you couldn’t say Andy Dufresne didn’t put up a fight and perhaps his hanging was indicative of a problem? Gordon Elliott had observed when he won over the course and distance the previous month that “he's still not the finished article, he's still a big weak horse”.

The previous day at Cheltenham, a good-looking field of nascent stayers contested the Grade Two Bristol Novices’ Hurdle (also, you would think confusingly, officially called the Albert Bartlett as part of that Festival sponsor’s package of races).

Second-season novice Champagne Well, who’d improved this term since wearing a tongue-tie and was last seen chasing home 8-1 Albert Bartlett ante-post favourite Thyme Hill, headed the market but his jumping lacked fluency in rear. Even so, Paddy Brennan produced him with an outside-rail-hugging run to lead at the last prior to being outstayed by Redford Road.

That horse was the lesser fancied of Nigel Twiston-Davies’s two contenders – the trainer admitted afterwards that he’d guided son Sam to ride stablemate and eventual fourth Mossy Fen instead, leaving Jamie Bargary to enjoy further Cheltenham success on the cast-off.

Stamina is clearly Redford Road’s abundant asset and he was more in control than a half-length winning margin (with a further six lengths back to the third, Kiltealy Briggs) suggests. Bargary was careful to get the last right, ceding brief advantage to the runner-up and his mount appeared to idle once hitting the front.

This was the winner’s fifth start, also, and he’s improved on each of them. He’s a super staying chaser in the making but his trainer will be targeting him at THE Albert Bartlett itself, no doubt via a few more starts – and, as pointed out above, there’s no harm in that. Champagne Well was conceding 3lb to Redford Road.

Further back in fifth, the ten-year-old much-raced French recruit Valtor confirmed – as if confirmation were needed – that he is unsuited by racing left-handed, as he was always seeking to hang right prior even to causing interference.

But Henderson was on the money at the same Cheltenham meeting the preceding day when Chantry House made a winning hurdling debut in the silks of JP McManus in the opening two-mile novices’ hurdle. Having been notably relaxed in the paddock beforehand but quite novicey in the race, he was hardy enough to cope with a sprint-finish to a steadily run race.

Henderson and rider Barry Geraghty were inclined not to raise this horse’s sights in the short term. “Barry has come back and said he was still a bit green,” the former said. “He is going to be very nice in time and hopefully he can do that again under a penalty and then we can take a view.”

Chantry House can be worked into that developing formline that we cited on the Road To Cheltenham show last week in that he beat recent Aintree winner Edwardstone in a bumper in March. Stablemate Pipesmoker caught the eye, managing to come from a disadvantageous position into third and Henderson indicated he would step up in trip on his next start.

On runner-up Stolen Silver – the only horse in the first four with previous hurdling experience – rider Sam Twiston-Davies was in something of a cleft stick, on a keen horse who needs further but his mount acquitted himself well, conceding 6lb to the debutants.

Pileon shaped better than the bare form, having travelled well and jumped the last alongside Stolen Silver and the soon-challenging winner before fading, but Shang Tang hung disconcertingly left when losing his pitch before that hurdle.

It’s worth noting yet another Henderson-trained novice: Welsh Saint, who won an attritional race at Warwick by 15 lengths. Only three of the 15 starters completed the course in very testing conditions caused by persistent rain but the winner breezed into the straight like a fresh horse. Even he had the good grace to look a shade tired by the end but he’s clearly a relentless stayer.

Henderson won this race last year with Birchdale, who went on to win a Grade Two at Cheltenham in January before pulling up when relatively fancied in the Albert Bartlett. Back in 2016, it was also won by Willoughby Court, who went on to triumph in the following season’s Ballymore (then Neptune) Hurdle at the Festival.

The Willie Mullins-trained Monkfish is another though stayer and he made straightforward work of a Fairyhouse 2m7f maiden hurdle last Saturday: never far away, pressing on nearing the home turn and drawing clear by 11 lengths. He was given plenty of daylight at his obstacles, mind, and still wasn’t entirely fluent.

“He was very green the last day [over 2m4f] and he had more time to do things today,” his trainer observed. “He'll stay novice hurdling over staying trips. He's a big three-mile chaser and has taken all this time to come right. He's still as green as grass.”

Finally, Captain Guinness made a winning racecourse debut in the maiden hurdle at Navan last Sunday and might have triumphed anyway, even had front-running 2-9 favourite Blackbow not fallen when still leading at the last.

Blackbow had been keen, despite Mullins employing a first-time hood to help him to relax, and lacked fleetness at his hurdles, getting in awkwardly close to the second and giving several others too much air. When it came to the last, he’d just seen off the first wave of challengers when he guessed at it and failed to find a leg, resulting in a rough fall.

He’s yet to truly take to hurdles on this evidence, even though he had ability enough to finish second in the Punchestown Champion Bumper and fifth in the Cheltenham version.

On the winner, Rachael Blackmore had come from a shade further back than the other principals and bided her time on her complete novice of a mount, whose inexperience occasionally showed at his hurdles. But she got Captain Guinness rolling approaching the last and extracted a great jump that saw him left in the lead before powering away to win by seven lengths.

Trainer Henry de Bromhead commented: “I suppose it was a bit of a surprise, but he has been working well and went well in a schooling race recently. I thought he might have needed his first run, as most of mine do, but he jumped great and I'm delighted with him. Who knows what would have happened had the favourite not fallen, but Rachael said he picked up really well from the last.”

Two stables boasting strong candidates in this division again fought out the finish of a Cheltenham juvenile event last Saturday but my imagination was captured more by a performance that took place two and a half hours later and around 150 miles north. It is form that should not be underestimated.

I’m referring to the Grade Two Summit Juvenile Hurdle at Doncaster, in which Navajo Pass made all to beat Lord Lamington by three-and-three-quarter lengths, the latter in turn eight lengths clear of the 128-rated third, Paseo.

The filly Tombee Du Ciel was the beaten favourite on her UK debut for trainer Nicky Henderson and owners Simon Munir and Isaac Souede, who had been seeking to emulate their past successes in this race with Peace And Co in 2014 and We Have A Dream in 2017. Placed on her last two starts in Auteuil, the filly was beaten three out and eased right down.

Meanwhile, racing enthusiastically in testing conditions, the winner maintained a gallop that only the runner-up ever threatened to overhaul. After the penultimate flight, even the latter had to admit, having travelled seemingly well until that point and sticking to his task, that he couldn’t land a blow. Navajo Pass could even afford to nudge the last hurdle and stumble a stride after landing amid this powerful display of stamina.

Yet it is via crunching some sectional comparisons [see below table] with the other three two-mile hurdle events on the same card that this gets really interesting. Despite cutting out a stronger gallop to the fourth hurdle than elder rivals, Navajo Pass didn’t recoil from that pace in the latter part of the race to the degree you might have expected.

Afterwards, winning trainer Donald McCain observed that Navajo Pass had “got mugged” last time when nutted near the line by Tavus at Newcastle, hence he and rider Brian Hughes were determined to set a good pace here “to know exactly where we stand”. He’d been a progressive horse on the Flat until pulling too hard in a 14f York handicap dismantled by Melrose hero Hamish.

“He's done what we always hoped he would do,” McCain said. “He's got a little cut [in the ground] and we don't have to go to Chepstow for the Finale now. We can wait and give him one run before Cheltenham. For which race? We'll see what the handicapper says.”

Well, David Dickinson, the BHA’s hurdles handicapper at distances up to 2m 3.5f, quite rightly says 140 – that’s 1lb higher than the mark he allotted to the same day’s Cheltenham winner Botox Has. In the past ten years of the Fred Winter, the highest-rated winner was Band Of Outlaws, who ran off a mark of 139 last year, and the highest-rated participant was Blood Cotil, who ran off 144 in 2013 and finished sixth.

Apart from the outlier of What A Charm (who won off 115), the rating range of the past ten winners has been 127 to 139, the top-rated participant has ranged from 133 to 144 and the lowest-rated from 109 in What A Charm’s anomalous year (next lowest 122) to 129 last year and in 2015.

It’s been almost a decade since McCain’s yard regularly housed a contender for top honours – going back to the days of Peddler’s Cross and Overturn for Tim Leslie, who also owns Navajo Pass. Therefore, cometh the hour, it might prove too tempting to sidestep the Triumph Hurdle with a Grade Two winner and, admittedly, the more testing New Course would suit this juvenile.

Whether or not his conqueror heads to the Festival’s Grade One juvenile event, Lord Lamington is of interest for the Boodles Fred Winter as he jumps extremely well and would benefit from less testing conditions than he faced at Doncaster, according to the form he displayed up to two miles on the Flat for Mark Johnston. He also hails from a yard – that of Alan King – that is open-eyed about the best targets for their juveniles. Lord Lamington is now on a reassessed mark of 136.

Back at Cheltenham, the Gary Moore-trained Botox Has advertised the November course form of the Dan Skelton-trained Allmankind when beating the latter’s stablemate, Langer Dan, with poor-jumping Elysian Flame back in third, in the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial. Like the runner-up, the winner also has a more celebrated stable companion in the relentless Sandown winner, Goshen.

Botox Has made all, niggled along from an early stage but hurdling better than he had on the Old Course, bar for the last when he jumped it airily even though rider Josh Moore only asked him to pop it. That suggested he had plenty left and so it proved. Although Moore also reported blustery conditions had caused his mount to veer left on the rise to the line, he drew further clear and won by five lengths, albeit receiving 3lb from Langer Dan.

“He’s a horse we like a lot but he’s quite babyish still,” Moore Jr said, explaining why the horse hadn’t travelled fluently. “There was no obvious pace today, but he is a galloper. I didn’t want to make my own running but we were kind of forced to. I didn’t want to be sitting off a slow gallop . . . so we sort of had to see whether he had the mind for it.

“And he did: he had his ears pricked, out in front, the whole way. The only time we struggled was up the straight – there’s a very hard headwind or crosswind.”

Moore Sr believes Botox Has is a better horse coming off a fast pace and would even consider stepping him up to two-and-a-half miles against older horses. More immediately, it seems he might rearrange hitherto well-considered plans by running Goshen in Huntingdon’s Chatteris Fen in order to accommodate Botox Has at Cheltenham on Trials Day.

When asked about the putative change of plan, Moore Sr said: “I’m just having second thoughts. To keep them apart, it wouldn’t worry me if I had to go to Huntingdon with Goshen.” When I put it to him that this would leave a key query about Goshen unresolved before the Triumph, Moore said: “I’m not too worried about going left-handed.” Watch the whole interview below.

I don’t share Moore’s certainty because Goshen jumped markedly right at left-handed Fontwell and even adjusted right when romping away at right-handed Sandown this month. I also preferred the logic of Plan A: find out whether Goshen can go left-handed before the Festival, permitting time for recalibration with the aim of winning some valuable Flat prizes if he doesn’t.

But Moore always seeks to monetise while the iron is hot – quite rightly, that’s his business – and would hate to see one good prize go begging when he could potentially win two. Practically speaking, that says to me Goshen is now more likely to run in the Triumph than he was two weeks ago – which should have made him shorten more than the single point bookmakers reflexively trimmed when his stable companion won. But the left-handedness...

Goshen is now a best-priced 9-1 favourite for the JCB Triumph Hurdle ahead of two horses as yet unraced over hurdles: Micro Manage, the highly progressive winner of two of his three Flat starts for Willie Mullins, and Trueshan, whose trainer Alan King stated to me on Racing TV when he beat Hamish at Newbury in October that he was “not going jumping” but being prepared for the £1 million Ebor. He won’t be quick enough for that, so perhaps there’s been a change of plan?

Moore Jr made a salient point about Botox Has. “They’ve done a bit of work together in the early autumn and Goshen, because he’d run on the Flat, he seemed a lot more forward,” he added. “This lad is now starting to catch up with him on his homework. They’re both good jumpers, they both go in soft ground. They’d be quite different types but they’re both progressing the right way.”

Goshen had six starts on the Flat whereas Botox Has was sourced from France after a sole run over hurdles in April. A hardened Flat profile is no longer the advantage it once was in the Triumph, since the fields have been distilled by the presence of the Boodles Fred Winter.

Botox Has does have two-and-a-half lengths to find on Allmankind, however, and there’s an element of having shown a great deal of his hand here – dominating (albeit perhaps not to his absolute taste) and jumping impeccably. Runner-up Langer Dan continues to improve and this was merely his third start over hurdles, suggesting he should also have more to come.

Elysian Flame was handed a tough gig for his hurdles bow and, although well backed, failed to jump a single hurdle well. He nonetheless rallied past fair Ludlow winner Group Stage to grab third near the line. If he improves his technique – or, rather, gains one at all – this decent Flat stayer (second to Hamish in that York race I previously mentioned) becomes a player.

It should be noted, however, that time comparisons with Call Me Lord indicate that Botox Has took the field along at a far greater pace than that at which the Grade Two International was conducted, meaning that the more prominently positioned principals finished tired and Elysian Flame was picking up cheap lengths late on. In short, he’s strictly flattered but there’s plenty to work on.

At Cheltenham the previous day, trainer Nigel Hawke again worked the three-year-old weight-for-age system in his favour when Repetitio – previously third behind Allmankind and Botox Has in November – struck against older rivals from a mark of 125 in the 2m1f handicap hurdle. It was the same device he’d employed with the filly Guardia Top at Sandown just two weeks earlier.

Hawke acknowledged the groundwork Repetitio’s previous trainer Jim Bolger had instilled in three Flat starts but, in truth, he’s transformed this tough little character. This was his seventh start over obstacles and he’s been steadily improving with almost each one. “The Fred Winter has always been in the back of my mind and he had to win here or run well to vindicate it,” Hawke said.

There was a fascinating juvenile hurdle at Warwick last Thursday, featuring a couple of three-year-olds I’d followed closely on the Flat this year.

Palladium was still a maiden after six starts for Martyn Meade but shaped like an unexposed thorough stayer. Despite what his form might suggest, Rowland Ward appreciated a bit of cut and didn’t quite progress as he once threatened, winding up wearing blinkers for Ralph Beckett.

Neither horse won the race – although Palladium, now based with Henderson, gave it a fierce go. He benefited from a prominent position but jumped encouragingly; he couldn’t quite match the victorious leader’s gears into the straight but his stamina kicked in from two out and he rallied to force a photo on the line. This was promising from a horse who might prefer a sounder surface.

A keen Rowland Ward was buried in rear in a contest that favoured those racing handier and was being rowed along vigorously, tagged onto the leading group, when clipping the second last and plunging into the turf.

Hopefully new trainer Stuart Edmunds won’t be afraid of soft ground again, having withdrawn him on that basis from an intended start at Ludlow, because he’ll need that to slow the others down.

Rowland Ward’s stablemate, the filly Maskada, won the race after taking over exiting the back straight from an always-handy pitch. She’d got several rivals on the stretch by two out and those who weren’t – in particular smooth-travelling French recruit Sainte Doctor – were soon paddling. The winner was making her hurdles debut having twice been placed in bumpers.

Finally, at Fairyhouse last Saturday, Wolf Prince was presented with a straightforward chance to build on last month’s opening Punchestown third behind Aspire Tower. He lobbed through the race in the protagonists’ collective of four, joined the leader two out and moved clear without being asked. He almost tripped over the last (and jumped left at the first) but was otherwise convincing.

Now trained by Gavin Cromwell, Wolf Prince raced five times on the Flat in Britain for Amy Murphy, twice finishing second over 12 furlongs in testing ground. For what it’s worth, he ended up rated 77 whereas Goshen was 88, Rowland Ward 83 (from a peak of 85) and Palladium 73.

Allmankind’s rating of 86 (from a peak of 89) is to my mind irrelevant because he never settled well enough to utilise the stamina that should have seen him flourish at three. Aspire Tower was also rated 86 but his trainer Steve Gollings frustrated the bejesus out of me by never once running him over the 14f+ trip he so clearly needed. Micro Manage was rated 107 and Trueshan 109, mind.

LYDIA'S SELECTIONS:

Advised on 20/11/19: Altior at 14-1 with William Hill for the Ryanair.

Back now: Chacun Pour Soi at 4/1 with various firms for the Champion Chase.

Back now: Mister Fisher at 16/1 each-way with Bet365, William Hill or BetFred for the Marsh Novices' Chase.

RUBY'S SELECTIONS:

Advised on 28/11/19: Thyme Hill at 14/1 with various firms for the Albert Bartlett.

Advised on 12/12/19: Carefully Selected at 20/1 with Skybet or BetVictor for the NH Chase.