Lydia Hislop's Road To Cheltenham 6: Tactical triumphs, thrills and spills

For the second year running, Al Boum Photo shortened up as Gold Cup favourite by virtue of self-isolating until the new year – something for which he is almost as renowned as he is for twice winning the Festival’s premier race. The general consensus seems to be, following two excitingly different Grade One staying chases on each side of the Irish Sea over Christmas, that he’s got less to fear than had previously been envisaged.

He was the only notable absentee in Leopardstown’s Savills Chase – a belting 14-runner affair that brought most of the Irish-based elder statesmen of this division into direct conflict with the second-season upstarts, as well as others utterly unproven at the trip. It was a contender of that last variety who took home the spoils in a thrilling finish.

A Plus Tard was not trying three miles for the first time on Sunday but his previous attempt was in Punchestown’s Champion Novice two seasons ago – a near 15-length beating into third by Delta Work that succeeded his own 16-length demolition of Cheltenham’s novices’ handicap chase. That defeat has been taken as conclusive proof that he is a superior horse on left-handed tracks.

He wrongfooted trainer Henry de Bromhead last season when unexpectedly lowering the colours of Chacun Pour Soi at this fixture’s Grade One 2m1f event, probably owing to his superior fitness at the time. Heading straight to the Ryanair thereafter, on the basis that the sharper test of the Champion Chase wouldn’t suit, he then disappointed when finishing only third behind Min – albeit beaten less than two lengths and keeping on strongly after gutsily staying in contention.

In his pre-season stable tours, his trainer had repeatedly signalled he was open-minded as to A Plus Tard’s likely campaign this season and was not averse to trying three miles again. The owners, Cheveley Park Stud’s David and Patricia Thompson, also have the Willie Mullins-trained Allaho to consider and the novice Envoi Allen waiting in the wings for next season, so there was good reason to explore this horse’s aptitude for staying trips sooner rather than later.

In the event, he needed all of Leopardstown’s climbing straight to overhaul a reanimated Kemboy and an unfettered Melon in the final strides, having earlier been patiently ridden by Darragh O’Keeffe while those two rivals raced clear of their field.

It was a reasonable assumption on O’Keeffe’s part that this pair were doing far too much but on Kemboy, David Mullins had calculatedly allowed Patrick Mullins to roll clear on an uninhibited Melon from six out. Yet Kemboy was nonetheless upsides sooner than his rider expected, when Melon lost concentration approaching two out and made a jarring mistake, causing them to take each other on far sooner than David Mullins had surely planned.

He waited as best he could, only fully committing his mount on the approach to the last, but there Kemboy made a critical error, getting in too close and hitting it. This offered Melon a second bite at the cherry and checked Kemboy’s own progress for long enough to enable O’Keeffe to generate a full head of steam on A Plus Tard, whom he’d got after from the back of the second last.

He won by half a length, going away at the line – a first Grade One success with his first ride at that level for the jockey, who had loudly announced himself to British fans earlier this month when storming away with the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup on board Chatham Street Lad.

The first three finished well clear of the rest in this strongly-run Leopardstown event, with winner and third – unproven going into this – clearly effective at three miles. But from this trio, you’d only have A Plus Tard on your mind for the Gold Cup and those who took 66/1 prior to the Savills Chase have a corking bet to enjoy.

He’s now a standout 12/1 with Bet365 – 10/1 more generally – and has several elements in his favour, including his ability to settle, sound jumping under pressure and proven Cheltenham form. Sure, he’ll need to improve again and show he can stay an extra two-and-a-half furlongs, but he’ll only be seven years of age in 2021 and is open to plenty of improvement. He can be a shade safe at his obstacles – such as at the last here – but that should be less of an issue moving up in trip.

The trainer seemed all but persuaded, too. “I wouldn't like to make any plans yet,” de Bromhead demurred at first, citing the Irish Gold Cup as a potential initial target. Then he added: “He stayed at it really well and needed every inch of it. We’ll see whether it’s the Ryanair or the Gold Cup, it’s up to everyone involved.” Finally, he repeated: “He stayed really well.” I’d go for the Gold Cup then, Henry. You know you want to. And you should do.

It sounds as though de Bromhead has the provisional support of Cheveley Park Stud (Whimsy Division). Managing director Chris Richardson told RTE: “Obviously we will talk to Mr Thompson and see what he wants to do but the Gold Cup would be favourite at this point, I would think.

“We haven’t spoken about it yet. Now we know he stays three miles, that gives so many more options. I’d expect him to have one more run before Cheltenham, but that was very special.”

It was good to see Kemboy put together a convincing piece of form, even if it still fell short on the figures of his pomp from two seasons ago. However, his ingrained habit of jumping right was still in evidence and he has proved on multiple occasions that somewhere other than Cheltenham should be his target. The Irish Gold Cup will likely be his next stop, but Punchestown should be the priority.

Melon produced a career-best performance in third, consolidating his uncharacteristically forward showing for this time of year in the John Durkan earlier this month. Trainer Willie Mullins had whipped off the cheekpieces for this first attempt at three miles (outside of one spin in a French hurdle), which his son may have had cause to regret at the second last.

Mullins Jnr might also reflect that he allowed his mount to be overly exuberant in the circumstances but that’s Melon’s run style when on song and, to some degree, he suddenly found himself hitched to the leaders rather than more patiently ridden rivals when Minella Indo departed at the eighth. As you would expect, the rider was already mulling this over minutes after the race.

“I was making ground at every jump and... down the back straight I was taking him back, taking him back, and... there’s four in a line down the back, five if you count the ditch, and I was like: let’s make use of his jumping,” Patrick Mullins told Gary O’Brien on Racing TV.

“He was very well within himself. I’m just annoyed... the second last – there was no stride. Maybe I should have just rolled the dice and kept the revs up. We got in a bit tight. David [Mullins, on Kemboy] has come up on our outside then. I suppose David is thinking his horse will stay and maybe my horse has got a question mark.

“Maybe we got racing a bit too soon and set it up for A Plus Tard but I suppose you wouldn’t have expected A Plus Tard to come and do us for stamina either. So, a great run... just frustrating.”

In further mitigation of this account of his real-time thinking, as Patrick Mullins knows well, Melon is also far from straightforward. He has surely renounced winning as a mortal sin. Nonetheless, a free-going Melon in the Ryanair makes greater appeal than in the Gold Cup – plus owners Joe and Marie Donnelly already have the dual titleholder in that race.

The same Festival target would seem more appropriate for stablemate Allaho, too, as he lacked the stamina to make inroads on the leaders after receiving a relatively circumspect ride loosely comparable to that of the winner. He’s addressed in the Ryanair section in this column.

At least four horses tarnished their profiles. Presenting Percy, seemingly revived by the ministrations of new trainer Gordon Elliott when winning at Thurles last month, could never get remotely involved. Thoughts of the Gold Cup, rather the Grand National, are now definitively past their sell-by date. Perhaps he needs deep ground, which would be far from guaranteed at Aintree.

Titleholder Delta Work was deprived of Jack Kennedy, the injury-plagued rider who’s conjured his best efforts, which may have been a disadvantage for a horse as similarly accident-prone. He knuckled over on landing at the ninth and unseated the deputising Sean Flanagan, but his track record tells you this was not just an unfortunate spillage. His jumping is not good enough.

Following an underwhelming reappearance at Down Royal, last season’s narrow Marsh Novices’ Chase hero Samcro regressed, if anything, here – putting in an extra stride when fluffing the 13th and then failing to respond when chased along afterwards. Keith Donoghue pulled him up before the second last. This horse has got a medical record as long as his reputation was once tall and it demands another feat of one-to-one nursing from Elliott’s team to resurrect his season.

Fakir D’Oudairies was also pulled up. He presents as a horse desperately in need of a campaign target and was perhaps only contesting this for JP McManus because Champ wasn’t. Upped to a new trip, he pulled hard in the early stages, was mildly hampered by a faller and his own round was littered with errors. Perhaps Joseph O’Brien has a handicap plan but it’s not obvious.

There was no warning that I perceived of the woe betiding Minella Indo and Rachael Blackmore at the eighth fence. He had seemed to jump soundly – even measuredly – prior to that and was chasing the leaders on the inside rail when hitting the top of the fence and taking a plunging fall. This is the first spill of his career, albeit it was an awkward jump at the final fence in last season’s RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase that left his chin hanging out for Champ to nail it on the line.

Interestingly, until the declaration stage both Minella Indo and stablemate Monalee had been left in the Savills New Year’s Day Chase – the race reserved as Al Boum Photo’s private party. However, even the Irish government’s travel ban failed to ensure that this Grade Three event was a race rather than a coronation due to Monalee – an intended runner in the King George and who would have received 11lb from the dual Gold Cup hero at Tramore – picking up an injury.

“Unfortunately, Monalee has suffered a bit of a knock. He has had a setback and won’t run for the foreseeable future,” reported de Bromhead, in a choice of words that even raised possible doubts about the horse’s Irish or Cheltenham Gold Cup participation.

Asked about the prognosis of the injury by the Racing Post, De Bromhead added: “He will be out for a couple of months anyway and we are just waiting to get more information on it.” What a great shame, certainly in the short term, and perhaps more enduringly.

On paper, the King George VI Chase seemed less likely to contain a future Gold Cup winner than the Savills Chase. Although its victor now demands to be weighed as a potential candidate for Cheltenham’s main event, you still can’t help but feel that this was a race to cherish for its own sake, rather than for any long-term meaning it might contain.

It was immediately clear that Bryony Frost had utilised Frodon’s best asset – nimble, metronomic jumping – to control the race for their own benefit. What was less obvious was why her eight rivals complied with the execution of her plan. It’s not as if the winner’s modus operandi was unknown.

Nico de Boinville was alive to the danger but unfortunately his mount is less responsive to the touch. Every time he nudged Santini to get vaguely upsides Frodon, Frost asked her quicker horse momentarily to increase the tempo and then he’d wing a fence, buying himself further breathing space. Santini was thus repeatedly outpaced and outjumped by Frodon.

“He is so quick – and it’s his landing that’s quick. He drives his hind legs in and away he goes,” Frost observed afterwards. “Santini was an irritation for him most of the way because I couldn’t get the breathers I wanted to, as much as I would have liked to.”

But comparative sectionals with the Grade One Kauto Star Novices’ Chase over the same course and distance little more than an hour earlier illustrate that Frost’s tactics were perfectly executed.

The two races set out in a similar manner, but the Kauto Star was fractionally quicker from the third until the seventh fence, at which point Frost started to slow the King George pace markedly.

At their peak disparity, there were about 25 lengths between the novice Shan Blue and Frodon.

Having thus meticulously conserved her mount’s energy, from around five out Frost began to accelerate and her mount covered from three out to the line in a time more than two seconds quicker than the earlier winner. In further testimony to the quick-slow-slower-quickest pattern of the King George, runner-up Waiting Patiently covered the straight even more rapidly than the winner, but had contrastingly been held up in rear and was still only sixth turning for home.

This was a race whose projected tempo changed markedly at the 48-hour declaration stage when neither Monalee – due to travel restrictions inspired by the Covid mutation – nor Vinndication (who “became lame behind” after unseating in the Ladbrokes Trophy but was “back under saddle” four days later according to trainer Kim Bailey’s excellent blog) appeared in the final line-up.

That left Frodon, Cyrname and Black Op as the only candidates for front-running – or at least prominent – duties.

Black Op’s propensity to stutter into his fences, as demonstrated liberally in the Ladbrokes Trophy – or even to slam on the brakes, as he did here at the second – made it unlikely he’d last long next to Frodon. His rider Tom Scudamore soon settled for a chasing position that he gradually lost, as Black Op was outclassed and finally outspeeded, during the course of the race.

Cyrname’s case is more curious. His best form has come when dominating (specifically at Ascot) and he appeared to have allayed fears about his stamina for three miles by winning the Charlie Hall last time out, when he also seemed content to chase the leaders until his natural exuberance took him to the fore on the outside of his field. I had expected a similar type of ride at Kempton but that’s not what happened.

Lined up towards the fore initially, he was nudged along approaching the first fence – as in last year’s King George – but soon appeared happier than 12 months ago when standing off the second. Thereafter, he showed flashes of being on and off the bridle, positioned on the inside throughout the first circuit but more towards the rear than the fore.

This led me to wonder whether rider Harry Cobden – as well as Sam Twiston-Davies on stablemate and dual titleholder Clan Des Obeaux – had been expecting a stronger end-to-end pace to be set by Frodon? Or did the solid tempo over the first three fences deceive them and by the seventh, when the pace became funereal, were they already committed and therefore reliant on others – who proved, for various reasons, incapable – of hassling the leader? The latter, I think.

Lostintranslation, for instance, was close enough to press Frodon had he been able, having happily taken a prominent position or even led in the past. But his uncharacteristically irresolute jumping held him back during the first circuit and, from the outset of the final round, had deteriorated into mistakes.

He had already dropped out into last place before Frost started to crank up the pace approaching five out and was pulled up by Robbie Power on the home turn. It was sadly not surprising, therefore, to read that the BHA’s veterinary officer reported the horse had bled from the nose.

His last five starts range from the highs of his 2019 Betfair Chase win and Gold Cup third (albeit he may have been flattered in that steadily-run race) to the lows of two unfinished King Georges and a spiritless tailed-off third at Haydock last month.

Until now, the Tizzards could blame the ground and/or, after Kempton last year, breathing issues. His profile is now, to put it mildly, unconvincing but connections have nonetheless earmarked the Denman Chase for his comeback.

“He bled on the day, but he seems to be fine at home, although we haven’t done an awful lot with him,” Joe Tizzard, assistant to his father Colin, told the Racing Post. “He had his flu jab yesterday and at the moment we've got the Denman in mind.

“He bounced back from a bad run last year and it’s early days since Kempton, but we want to try and get him back [to form] before the Gold Cup. Horses have come back from bleeds before, so we'll give him a spin around Newbury.”

Back to Cyrname, who briefly ranged up on the outside six out but reached for the next and was immediately beaten as the pace started to quicken. Cobden swiftly accepted defeat and pulled him up on the home turn, later reporting to the stewards that his mount was “never travelling”.

Trainer Paul Nicholls could provide them with no further explanation and a post-race examination by the British Horseracing Authority’s veterinary officer also revealed nothing. Later, the trainer suggested on Racing TV (see the video below) that Cyrname can only deliver of his best when allowed to boss his opposition.

“I thought we were going to jump off and be a bit sharper,” Nicholls said. “For whatever reason, he sort of got in behind and I think he just sulks when he doesn’t dominate... There are no excuses with his preparation and how he’s been going. I think he [presumably, Cobden] wants to get back to letting him bowl along and let him dominate because he loves being ridden like that.

“The funny thing is, when he was running over two-and-a-half [miles], everyone was saying run him over two [miles], run him over two. But he is slow. You can see today that he is slow, but he loves to dominate. So, we will have to rethink what we do with him and where we go. That was a bit disappointing on his part.”

It now seems more likely than not that Cyrname will never substantiate with elite success the lofty position he’s held in the Anglo-Irish Jumps classifications for the past two seasons. Nicholls could not have applied more careful thought to this horse’s King George preparation and yet the result was even less rewarding than last year.

You can’t glibly say that Cyrname merely prefers to bully inferior rivals – it was a high-level performance from both parties when he made all to beat Altior last season. Yet there is something undeniably insubstantial about him that isn’t suited to the put-it-all-out-there-ness of staying chasing.

You can’t accuse Clan Des Obeaux of the same – he went down fighting at Kempton – but he is limited in the sense that he needs a very narrow set of circumstances to produce his best. Hitherto, this right-handed, flat track had been enough to inspire his zeniths. Compared to his triumphs in the preceding two years, however, this King George was very much not a test of stamina at the trip. And perhaps there was something else at play, too?

Twiston-Davies lined him up towards the rear, on the heels of Cyrname, but his mount was lethargic from the outset – jumping the first and second slowly. He made mistakes on the second circuit, just as his rider was asking him to make inroads on the leader, but nonetheless heaved himself into third amid a quickening pace approaching the home turn.

In the straight, he was carried left by Saint Calvados jumping across him three out and then found Waiting Patiently bustling past approaching the last, when he could only plug on at the one pace.

Afterwards, Nicholls was inclined to blame the hard race Clan Des Obeaux underwent when fruitlessly chasing home Bristol De Mai in deep ground for Haydock’s Betfair Chase last month. This was a risk he knew he was taking at the time but it’s also an unquantifiable one in most circumstances, even for trainers – something the conspiracy theorists find hard to believe.

Weighing his King George calculations, Nicholls said back then: “It's almost a swap of last year as Cyrname had a hard race in the 1965 Chase at Ascot on this [Betfair Chase] weekend, which came a bit close to the King George. But he ran three weeks ago at Wetherby, which we wanted this year. Clan’s had the reverse and had the harder race this season, so he’s got to get over it. He’s probably a different horse to Cyrname and has five weeks [to recover], so should be fine.”

Beforehand, in this space, I had also taken my position: that Clan Des Obeaux was likely to have been fitter than many comparable horses for his seasonal debut because his campaign plan is explicitly front-and-back loaded this season, focussing primarily on Boxing Day and either Aintree or Punchestown, with nothing (such as Cheltenham) in between. But Nicholls now believes that five weeks was not enough recovery time.

“I’d probably have been a better trainer if I’d pulled Clan Des Obeaux on the day out at Haydock. That’s probably the biggest mistake I’ve made this season,” he reflected at Kempton.

“Early in the morning [on Betfair Chase day], the ground was good and when it rained like that... [sigh]... Hindsight is a wonderful thing... I reckon if I had not run him at Haydock, I’d have had a different horse today... if he was fresh today... It was probably a big mistake running him on that really heavy ground at Haydock that day.

“He’s not short of pace. He just got a bit behind [here]. Sam said he wished he’d been a bit closer... then a couple of mistakes and he had too much ground to make up because Frodon was never stopping. Haydock probably left a mark on him – he had a hell of a hard race that day and it did get to the bottom of him, so I probably should have not run him.”

Until the preceding weekend, of course, Nicky Henderson was of the view that he should not run Santini in the King George. On startlingly supplementing him for the race, he maintained in his Unibet blog that “Kempton isn’t his track, and I still stand by that”. He was and is right – the horse’s third, when lacking tactical speed, in the 2018 Kauto Star told you that – but it was nonetheless worth a go.

Yet one reason Santini might have made this unscheduled appearance was due to stablemate Champ being “not quite ready to run”, following an operation to correct his breathing, in the Savills Chase. That competitive Leopardstown event – a very un-Henderson target for a graduating novice’s belated seasonal debut – was ultimately deemed an unsuitable comeback vehicle. This decision was taken prior to the Irish government ruling out overseas raiders under its latest Covid restrictions.

This leaves Champ with very few pre-Gold Cup options bar for Newbury’s Denman Chase in February and Santini’s putative next target, next month’s Cotswold Chase – leaving Henderson to also say "you've got to consider hurdling". only to qualify that by admitting that Champ still needs "all the experience he can get jumping fences".

Yet Henderson’s pre-Kempton blog for Unibet also offered a different interpretation for his change of heart about the infamously stuffy Santini – and if he runs again on Trials Day at Cheltenham, too, then it would be conclusive.

“He is a horse that absolutely thrives on his work, jumping, galloping and racing,” he said. “In fact, the more you do, the merrier. So, after discussing it with [owners] Richard and Lizzie Kelvin-Hughes, we came to the conclusion that we might as well have a crack at it and see what happens.

“He’s got to be sharper than he was at Aintree... he is never at his best first time out and if the emphasis is on stamina because of the ground, which is softening all the time, that will obviously play to his strengths.”

This decision to roll the dice must be applauded because Santini’s presence undoubtedly enhanced the King George. It also suggests that he is currently proving more straightforward to train, as his profile has hitherto been that of a horse whose large frame has thrown up a series of niggling, inhibitive problems.

Unfortunately for him, however, Kempton’s ground on the Boxing Day chase course was approaching ‘good’ on times (whereas the hurdles course was straightforwardly ‘good-to-soft’) and it’s hard to conceive of a King George that would have placed less emphasis on stamina. As mentioned above, Santini doesn’t possess the necessary set of skills deal with a steadily-run race, controlled by a quicker horse, on goodish ground and at this track.

In the circumstances, he ran perfectly respectably and his chances for the Gold Cup, specifically, were undimmed by the evidence of this race. Having fought to hold his prominent position as the pace lifted, he was hampered on landing four out after Frost allowed Frodon to run down the fence – the last before the home turn – and jump it markedly out to his left.

That shuffled Santini back from second to fifth and, briefly, he also held his tail awkwardly high after that incident. Yet in contrast to his previous start at Aintree, he responded to correction when seeking to hang and stuck to his task doggedly, gaining on Clan Des Obeaux and Saint Calvados from the last when driven out to the line.

The 2021 Gold Cup still offers the potential for Santini to get that rare thing: a race run to suit at a track on which he is fully effective. Throw in the likelihood of a sterner form of headgear than his current cheekpieces come that day in March and you still have a genuine each-way player at 12/1.

Neither Waiting Patiently nor Saint Calvados, both of whom finished ahead of him, are likely candidates for that Festival target. The former – whose name has proved a prophecy for his connections – probably had his chances maximised by the trademark exaggerated waiting tactics that Brian Hughes employs on this horse. Paradoxically, given the way the race panned out, they also gave him little chance of actually winning.

It was only Waiting Patiently’s second attempt at three miles, having previously been all but brought down when hampered and unseating Hughes in the 2018 King George. The horse also hadn’t seen the track in anger since finishing a staying-on third over two miles in last season’s strongly run Tingle Creek, subsequently suffering the latest in a string of disruptive setbacks – a chipped joint that required surgery.

His campaigning has been, at best, rigorously selective with trainer Ruth Jefferson having long maintained that he needs soft ground, flat tracks and plenty of time between assignments. She has also – understandably, given his recent history – come to describe him as “fragile”. So, getting two of her three stipulations in the King George proved sufficient to participate and resulted in a performance right up there with his very best.

Waiting Patiently probably isn’t the most straightforward ride, either – the way he hung in behind Cyrname at Ascot two seasons ago, going from potential challenger to beaten in pretty much one stride, always looms in my mind – so Hughes elicited plenty from him in the straight with some deft cajoling. Ascot’s same 2m5f Grade One, with that rival no longer in the ascendency, could prove an attractive target this season – providing all remains well.

Fourth-placed Saint Calvados was trying this trip for the first time, having displayed improved form when upped to two-and-a-half miles last season. He found the steady pace unsettling and tugged his way through from an initial position in rear to chase the leaders just as Frost slowed the pace more extremely rounding the bend towards the seventh.

He greeted the final circuit with a mistake and began increasingly to ape the winner by jumping out to his left, incorporating a bigger blunder five out before being checked on the bend when Frost guided Frodon back to the inside rail – a manoeuvre that earned her a two-day ban for careless riding from the stewards.

In the straight he continued to jump markedly left and his stamina gave out between the final two obstacles, causing him to fade from second to fourth. It all added up to a meritorious non-staying performance and suggested that his Festival target should remain the Ryanair – a race in which he was narrowly, perhaps even unluckily, beaten last year in what remains a career-best performance.

Which brings us back to Frodon, who despite jumping left virtually throughout, was masterfully handled – as Frost explained the following day to an ITV audience in a clip that’s worth watching below.

Put simply, she stacked up the field when they cornered – “using the apex of the bends because he’s so well balanced” – and extended again over the fences – “which I know he makes so much ground over with so little energy”.

ITV pundits Mick Fitzgerald and Andrew Thornton were excellent in this segment, by the way. Fitzgerald drew out the thought process of a typically competitive athlete when asking Frost to explain the minor interference she caused on the home turn.

“The underlying rule is: if you’re half a length down on someone [on their inside], you’ll expect to get leant on – especially with these experienced horses that do come to the rail,” she admitted. “I’m not being funny but it’s the King George and we’re turning in and I’ve still got a squeak. So, we’ve got to come to the rail.”

Thornton then highlighted how Frodon “whizzes round the bend on his off-fore but when he comes to a fence, he flicks back to his favoured near-fore”. “100% right and that’s why he’s so good going round in the other direction,” responded Frost. “That’s his leading leg that he loves.

“You watch him at Cheltenham on the home bend, he’ll come down the hill on his outside leg and when he comes to the apex he’ll then change back to his left. He’s so clever in knowing his body, his stamina, his scope and how to make his body react and do what it needs to do. By changing his legs, he’s freshening himself up and his muscles all the time. And when he does that, you wait for him to do it... and then he changes his legs and that’s when you can really go for home.”

Until this King George success, all of Frodon’s best performances have come at Cheltenham. Yet although Nicholls seemed publicly to toy with the idea of running him in the Gold Cup last season, he eventually saddled him for the Ryanair and was plainly not considering an alternative Festival target until last Saturday.

“The amazing thing today to me is that it puts him in the Gold Cup picture,” he admitted. “I didn’t think I’d have horses to run in the Gold Cup this year. Real Steel (addressed in the Ryanair section) obviously wants to go back in trip... Clan won’t go to the Gold Cup. I don’t know what we’ll do with Cyrname. But Frodon is right in the mix.”

Nicholls also revealed that he’d worked Frodon intensively following his lacklustre display earlier this month at Aintree. There, he felt the horse had jacked it in when disheartened by the large number of fences omitted due to the low sun. He was also taken on for the lead by Native River at those obstacles that remained in a parody of a steeplechase.

“I’ve just worked him hard – he thrives on it,” Nicholls said. “Sometimes as horses get older, they get a little bit lazy. Perhaps sometimes you think, well he won at Cheltenham [in October] so we won’t do quite so much [before] Aintree and they don’t turn up at the top of their game... You never stop learning about how to get the best out of them.”

He spoke of using Newbury’s Denman Chase as a potential stepping stone to the Gold Cup for Frodon, thereby avoiding “a hard race in the Cotswold Chase on really soft ground”, but he would also be prepared to head straight to the Festival because “he’s one that you can really get fit at home and go there really fresh, like he was at Cheltenham earlier in the season”. “We’ll talk about it – it’ll be either the Denman Chase or nowhere,” he concluded.

Manifestly, it won’t be as easy to control a Gold Cup as Frodon did this King George, but Frost did pull those tactics off in the 2019 Ryanair. The difficulty comes when, as in last term’s Ryanair, quicker horses chivvy him into going a stride too fast for his own good or, as in Aintree’s Many Clouds Chase, circumstances conspire to force the same reaction, causing mistakes in both scenarios.

In the Gold Cup, he’ll theoretically have Native River and Monalee for company in the vanguard – the former, a veteran who wasn’t quick enough to get to the front in the 2019 renewal as he had done the previous year, and the latter, who’s swifter but perhaps – I’m not definite about this – more prone to the odd chance-ending error than Frodon.

Frodon surely has early speed enough to claim the inside rail and could conceivably last the longest of that trio. Then he’d have to see off waves of challengers from four out and prove he can stay a furlong further than he’s ever tried before in – probably – the deepest race he’ll yet have encountered. I have my doubts, but I’ve learned to underestimate him at my peril.

The most promising Christmas audition for the Ryanair was performed by Melon – a joyous free-going display in the Savills Chase that ran out of puff near the end.

It’s a big leap to ask a dual Champion Hurdle runner-up to go from being gunned over two miles to racing within himself for a Gold Cup two seasons later with little staying experience in between. I’d prefer to see him targeted at the shorter Festival event.

You’d surmise that’s likely to happen, given his owners Joe and Marie Donnelly own the dual Gold Cup winner, even though Mullins has hankered after upping Melon to three miles for some time now. Mind, that is his default setting. Willie: you’ve won the Gold Cup now. Let it go.

So, the last of the remaining 12/1 would be very appealing were it not for the fact that Melon has contested 15 Grade Ones in his career to date and is yet to win one of them. The Ryanair is perfect, then, I hear you cry! (Amen, brother.)

But, as discussed in this space previously, this term’s renewal is shaping up to be a more competitive contest than can often be the case, with the likes of Min and Imperial Aura actively choosing to run in it.

You can throw into that mix another horse, also already discussed above, who ran better than his bare form suggests – King George fourth Saint Calvados, who was a shade unlucky when runner-up in this event last year. Extraordinarily, Bet365 briefly offered 20/1 about him after Kempton. He’s now a best-priced 12/1.

He seems to me a better proposition at this stage than Allaho, who is slightly shorter in the market despite failing to get involved when a 20-length fourth in the Savills Chase. The forgiving can argue that he shaped like a non-stayer and this effort certainly appeared better than his (as we were told it was anyway, given it happened behind fog) error-heavy sixth in the John Durkan.

Mullins has told Chris Richardson, representing Allaho’s owners Cheveley Park Stud, that “he has just taken a while to get fit this year”. “Willie is telling me he’s just not quite there yet, but we can build on that,” Richardson said after the race, won in the organisation’s first silks by A Plus Tard. That horse’s success surely pushes Allaho towards the Ryanair.

Bryan Cooper had advised the yard that Tornado Flyer needed to drop in trip after running in the 2m4f John Durkan, so it was no surprise to see him ridden with extreme patience in the Savills. He finished a distant fifth, never involved, and so might yet drop to the two-mile division. Both Samcro and Fakir D’Oudairies disappointed and were pulled up.

Another of the Christmas beaten set for this race is Real Steel, who was pulled up just before two out in the King George after making no impact even in a race as steadily run as that. His new trainer Paul Nicholls observed that he “obviously wants to go back in trip... he wants to go back to the Ryanair” and you have his implausible Gold Cup sixth – flattered by another crawl – to hang your hat on.

Owner Rich Ricci might also have back-up for favourite and titleholder, Min, in the shape of recent progressive Kempton winner, Royal Pagaille. This horse was admittedly winning merely from a mark of 140 but he did so head-in-chest and will clearly be bumped up markedly.

While handicaps remain an option, trainer Venetia Williams is likely to continue to exploit them with a horse who’s developing fast, but he’s a name to watch out for. He does have a low-slung style of jumping, however, which you fear might be undone by a downhill fence.

Advised 02/12/20: Zanahiyr at 5/1 (general) for the JCB Triumph Hurdle

Advised 31/12/20: Sire Du Berlais at 12/1 (general) for the Paddy Power Stayers' Hurdle (see Road To Cheltenham column 7)