Lydia Hislop's best bets for day three of the Cheltenham Festival

This is a match in essence – and not far off in reality, with the quickly reappearing El Barra and Busselton almost certainly just making up the numbers to a dismal four runners.

GALOPIN DES CHAMPS needs to head out as if this is a normal race, rather than getting drawn into a cat-and-mouse game that could advantage Bob Olinger’s turn of foot. Happily, an unfettered way of jumping fences is exactly how the second favourite – comfortable winner of the Martin Pipe last season – has upgraded his reputation. He jumps at pace and keeps on galloping.

Bob Olinger was imperious as a novice hurdler but hasn’t comparatively advanced his form – admittedly from a high base – for the switch to larger obstacles.

Whereas Galopin jumps fluidly, Bob prefers to pop his fences – as Henry de Bromhead has himself admitted. My theory when recommending the former as a bet at 8-1 during the Road To Cheltenham series was that Galopin would gain ground on his rival in the air.

That said, de Bromhead’s yard is notable for its high-quality schooling, and both he and jockey Rachael Blackmore declared themselves satisfied with Bob’s technique following intensive remedial work prior to his second chase success. Even so, only eight of the scheduled 11 fences were jumped that day at Punchestown due to the low sun. It remains a doubt in my mind.

If Bob is on Galopin’s tail turning for home, the injection of pace he displayed when winning last year’s Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle and when quelling Brown Advisory contender Capodanno will be dangerous. But I’m envisaging that Galopin has the race won long before then.

An intriguing handicap in which Gordon Elliott has a fistful of chances.

DUNBOYNE has snuck in at the foot of the weights and, although his form figures look unpromising, he was poised to strike when events intervened the last twice. At Leopardstown over Christmas, he got hampered behind a glut of runners before rallying for fifth and it was a similar story last time when making a Horlicks of two out. Jack Kennedy sticks with him.

Sire Du Berlais has a near-exemplary Festival record, having won this in 2019 and 2020 each with deft first-time headgear plays. He also finished second in last year’s Stayers' Hurdle, when positioned a shade too far behind the all-the-way winner, and fourth in the 2018 Martin Pipe. A steadily-run Qualifier wouldn’t have been up his street last time and he gets 7lb help from capable amateur Rob James, but you are trusting that he’s almost as good as ever aged ten. He might be.

Stablemate Dallas Des Pictons should run well for the third year running at the Festival, having played a decent supporting role in two Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdles. MILL GREEN, who finished seventh to his fifth in that race last year, is my other angle. He was shaping well for a step up in trip when making a chance-ending error three out and yet he still rallied for second. He can make mistakes but he’s managed Cheltenham twice and at 40-1 is worth the risk.

Winter Fog sharply upgraded his form, upped to three miles, on his first start for Emmet Mullins last time out and coped well with a big-field handicap for an inexperienced horse. The first-time hood will also be an asset, but he’s prohibitively short.

A couple of bigger priced horses are also worth a mention. Honest Vic would have been involved in the finish of the 2020 Coral Cup had his rider not pressed on too far out. He’s tried hard over fences this season without looking to be in love with the task and is a thorough stayer. The first-time blinkers on Coeur Serein are interesting, as he’s shown improved form over fences this term and his form has spiked for new headgear in the past.

When winning this race last year with the most impressive performance of the meeting, Allaho jumped extraordinarily well. Ridden aggressively by Rachael Blackmore, he didn’t miss a single beat and took all of his rivals out of their comfort zone from an early stage, their jumping unravelling. If reproducing that perfect 10/10, he will be impossible to beat.

Melon, Mister Fisher and Fanion D’Estruval were all torched in this race last year. All three have won lesser contests this season but they face being disheartened again at this class. The same applies to Conflated, whose jumping can get scrappy. He was perhaps ideally suited by a steadily run Irish Gold Cup over a longer trip last time, when given a masterful ride by Davy Russell.

ELDORADO ALLEN sat off a strong pace in last year’s Arkle, picking up the pieces for second, and since then has improved for a step up in trip. He arrives here fresh from a career-best success in the Denman Chase, ridden more positively. That adaptability makes him the best each-way play in this race at 14-1.

I suspect Shan Blue is the second-best horse on plain ability and he’s been saved for this race since suffering a minor setback when set to smash up the Charlie Hall last October, only to fall three out. He was ridden disadvantageously combatively in last year’s Marsh but his rhythmic jumping is seen to best effect on a flat track.

Janidil chased home Allaho in the John Durkan and is a candidate for minor honours here, having probably failed to see out three miles the last twice. However, he is also yet to prove himself at this grade.

This race could be won and lost at the start. Titleholder Flooring Porter needs not to allow the buzzing pre-race atmosphere go to his head – the grandstands were silent and empty last year when he dominated his field from the outset.

He has a tendency to be handful beforehand and – as we’ve already seen – the Cheltenham starter is strict, so there might be more than one enervating attempt at getting this race off. He also needs to secure the inside line and, even then, has a habit of hanging left. It’s not a given that he’ll again shrug off the lack of continuous inside running rail.

KLASSICAL DREAM is also often keen to post and has a history of anticipating the start – making a sudden forward move to his own advantage when winning both the 2019 Supreme, after causing a false start, and Leopardstown’s Christmas Hurdle. On the latter occasion, however, he then set insurmountable fractions and boasts the best form in this field on a going day.

That’s why I felt 5/1 NRNB was worth the risk. I’m forgiving his defeat last time because Willie Mullins regrets running him in the Galmoy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Paul Townend elects to ride him patiently here, as he did when winning impressively at Punchestown last April.

That race was won by Royal Kahala on her first attempt at three miles – and she improved for it, beating a well-positioned Home By The Lee. Trainer Peter Fahey has had the sort of levels of rain at Prestbury Park that he must have been hoping for, but his mare remains a threat with her 7lb allowance. She finished lame when beaten favourite in the Dawn Run last year and Telmesomethinggirl was surely about to do their recent Leopardstown form no harm when brought down two out, travelling powerfully, in the Mares’ Hurdle on Tuesday.

It only downgrades the achievements of his opponents that Paisley Park was able to win the Cleeve after losing more than ten lengths at the start whilst considering whether he wanted to take part – a recalcitrant trait that’s increasingly marked. The application of a tongue-tie on his last two starts has clearly helped, but he’s still operating some way below his 2019 best.

Champ is difficult to weigh up. The Festival certainly started well for Nicky Henderson and a reproduction of this horse’s fluent Long Walk success would put him bang in the mix. But it seems you can rely on him to let you down just as he’s convinced you otherwise – witness his Dipper fall as a novice chaser, last year’s Gold Cup and the Cleeve last time out. Conversely, doubt his ability and he’ll pop up, all sweetness and light. I’ve been bitten once by him and that’s enough. Cue...

Thyme Hill chased Champ home at Ascot, returning from an abortive trip to France. He missed this race last year due to a setback, but finished fourth in a deep Albert Bartlett in 2019 (some – not me – argue unluckily) and won last season’s Aintree Hurdle. Yet if even just one of Klassical Dream, Champ or Paisley Park gives their best running, he’s not quite good enough.

2020 winner Lisnagar Oscar was in the process of running well when tipping up in this race last year, admittedly a long way from home, but has been below his best to varying degrees this term – and even his peak isn’t good enough. To add to the starter’s headaches, Song For Someone has looked increasingly moody, albeit this step up in trip is what he needs.

Two novices to side with against the field here. First, THE GLANCING QUEEN who chased home L’Homme Pressé in the Dipper last time and also ran creditably behind Telmesomethinggirl in last year’s Dawn Run. She’s taken well to fences and has been allotted a feasible handicap debut mark.

Fergal O’Brien understandably flirted with the Turners after IMPERIAL ALCAZAR won over the course and distance here on Trials Day, when the horse jumped superbly. An 8lb rise shouldn’t stop him. A strong pace will help the headstrong tendencies jockey Paddy Brennan was having to curb when previously second to Pats Fancy at Chepstow.

Celebre D’Allen is progressive and unbeaten in three starts since joining Philip Hobbs and his owner Allan Stennett won this race with Salut Flo in 2012 and Ballynagour two years later. He’s done his winning on flat tracks, so Cheltenham is an unknown. Grand Paradis has bags of talent but a habit of throwing in a poor jump exactly when the opposite is required.

I’ve got unusually strong views in this race, having taken an early position with DINOBLUE at 8/1. I liked everything about her Clonmel debut – she travelled strongly, jumped nimbly and came readily clear. I interpreted it as positive that Willie Mullins stated he didn’t need to run her again before the Festival and he’s got a good record with lightly raced types in this race.

Mullins had suggested he might apply headgear to Brandy Love to curb her persistent tendency to hang left, but none is applied. She threw away a Fairyhouse Grade Three last time out by jumping and hanging right, but a left-handed track might not be enough of an antidote as she lugged left when beaten at odds-on in a Leopardstown bumper last season. The lack of a continuous inside rail could be an issue.

Stablemate Grangee was coming to mount her challenge when stumbling on landing two out, somersaulting heavily twice, in that same Fairyhouse event. If she’s unfazed by that experience, last year’s Champion Bumper sixth can go well. But Dublin Racing Festival winner Party Central looks the main danger, albeit the stiffer finish might not ideally suit her idling tendencies.