Lydia Hislop: race-by-race guide and tips for day one of Cheltenham

It was clear from Ruby Walsh’s insight in our live Road To Cheltenham preview show earlier today that Kopek Des Bordes won’t tolerate the application of ear-plugs hence he bids to become the first horse to win tomorrow’s Supreme wearing a hood.

On the upside, that means he’s at least got something to dampen the annual sound and the fury of Cheltenham in the minutes preceding the first race of the Festival whereas he was aurally commando at the Dublin Racing Festival last time when buzzy in the preliminaries. On the downside, a hood can’t be whipped off if its effect is too pacifying and the fact he baulks at ear-plugs suggests this trait might prove a more significant factor than I was anticipating.

However, he boasts much the best form, scrubbed up his jumping no end last time and would surely have been thwarted by the loose horse almost taking him out if he were utterly intractable. What’s more, it’s statistically proven folly to take on Willie Mullin’s selected first string in Grade Ones with any stable companion, so that knocks out five other rivals.

Likeable Workahead beat William Munny at Leopardstown over Christmas and both have been backed today. The winner clocked a very similar time to Kopek Des Bordes over the same course and distance that same day but the favourite jumped as if engaged in a demolition derby.

Contrastingly, ROMEO COOLIO has drifted to a backable each-way price in a strongly run race that will suit this staying two-miler ideally. He’s been to the Festival before, finishing second in last year’s heavy-ground Bumper, and has progressed with each start on a sounder surface over hurdles. I prefer each-way as opposed to the ‘without’ market just in case the favourite blows out.

This column secured a good position on MAJBOROUGH before Sir Gino and Ballyburn clashed at Kempton and there is no good reason to get cold feet now. He’s got the best form in the race and can become the first five-year-old to win this race since Voy Por Ustedes in 2006.

If you haven’t yet had a bet in this race, then a small interest in Only By Night in the ‘without the favourite’ market at 4/1 holds some appeal. Unbeaten over fences and a bang two-miler, this mare boasts a superb technique. Value for more than her winning margin last time when dismantling her main rival’s jumping and then idling in front, she is tactically versatile and can be played late.

I made the case for WHISTLE STOP TOUR both in the handicap edition of the show and in my previous column, so I won’t repeat myself at length here. Suffice to say, he’s a progressive young chaser who’s proven at the trip and acquitted himself with credit – jumping soundly – in a deep novices’ event over shorter at this track on Trials Day.

He represents the team of Lucinda Russell and Peter Scudamore, who won this race with future Grand National winner Corach Rambler as a novice in 2022. The unexpected presence of stablemate Myretownadds an opponent I fear to the line-up. Scudamore had said he needs softer ground and would wait for Uttoxeter, but his owners (perfectly reasonably) anticipate he’ll never again be so well-handicapped for a Festival event. His jumping will need to hold up, though.

I wonder whether the undoubtedly thriving Katate Dori might find himself with too much to do by the time his jumping has warmed up in this contest. Instead, I’m going to have a second bet on MALINA GIRL, who’s 4lb lower than when coming to win a premier handicap here last season and ran right up to her best against a smart mare at Exeter last time. 

For those who like massive prices, I could see Richmond Lake running well. He's been ultra-consistent all season.

A two-year plan up in smoke as, rather than enrich the Champion Hurdle, Lossiemouth instead aims for repeat success against her own sex here. Willie Mullins explained his team’s thinking to Nick Luck on the Road To Cheltenham preview show earlier today.

“She worked nice last week but I was happy enough that State Man worked better than her and Paul [Townend] was not going to ride her in the Champion Hurdle. So, that made things… well, it was the obvious thing to do,” he said.

“It’s been our plan for two years to run her in the Champion Hurdle, but after work the other day we said, you know, we felt she was just a runner. So, it’s disappointing. But I’m thinking where will she meet those horses? Maybe at Aintree or something like that? She’ll get her chance to meet them at some stage.

“But coming here this week, my duty is to get winners for owners and her best chance as a winner is, we think, in the Mares’ Hurdle rather than the Champion Hurdle. Rich [Ricci, her owner] puts a big investment into the game and everyone wants to have a winner here at the Festival… So, you say where is the best opportunity? And that’s where the best opportunity was.”

Yet this is a deeper renewal than last year when Lossiemouth was about the same price and only had to beat Telmesomethinggirl. There are other negatives to bear in mind, too. Even if her heavy fall in the Irish Champion was not a key reason for the switch in the minds of those at Closutton, there were mixed messages on this subject in last Thursday’s Road To Cheltenham show. First, Ruby Walsh told us she’d since schooled well but, second, Timeform’s Dan Barber demonstrated last-time-out fallers have performed significantly below expectation at the Festival.

More pertinently to my mind is the fact her training regime has been altered since she was outpaced in the early stages of Kempton’s Christmas Hurdle to rev her up for the Champion. Is there a good chance she’ll revert to being too keen over two-and-a-half miles here? At odds-on, I want to take her on.

Yet not with stablemate Jade De Grugy, who’s likely to be facing quicker ground than she’s ever before encountered (an unknown rather than a negative) and whose campaign this season feels somewhat rushed, having managed only one start. Ruby has mentioned more than once that she came back into Closutton “late”. 

Having been supplemented, Joyeuse must clearly be respected and is on a fast upward trajectory. Interestingly, that much-improved effort at Newbury coincided with her first encounter with soft ground. It’s back to the quicker stuff here, on which she was only a neck ahead of the likeable Take No Chances at Cheltenham in December when in receipt of 18lb (if admittedly not getting the rub of the green entirely). She’ll need to have improved all of that and quite a bit more.

Instead, I’m siding with the stablemate of the mare who beat both those rivals. Wodhooh runs in the Martin Pipe rather than having been supplemented here, leaving stablemate KALA CONTI as Gordon Elliott’s sole representative. Last season’s juveniles were a smart bunch and this mare shaped as though she’d do better upped in trip in time when mixing with the best of them.

She was committed too soon at Leopardstown last time after getting in a battle with Jetara and then being picked off by strong stayer July Flower. Plus, Jack Kennedy might be able to command superior track position on her against a host of held-up rivals. 

It all comes down to whether Constitution Hill is as good as he previously was. Aided by her 7lb mares’ allowance, if BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD replicates her latest Leopardstown demolition job, he will need to produce a performance comparable to his 2023 Champion Hurdle victory or more comfortably, his 2022 Supreme romp.

Undoubtedly, the former champion’s preparation could not have gone better since the Christmas Hurdle. Not only does the ebullience of Seven Barrows tell you that, but also the very fact he turned up in the International Hurdle here in January. Whilst I find it impossible to believe he’s better than ever at the age of eight following the accretion of various wear-and-tear issues, such was his ability he could afford to be a few pounds below his pinnacle and still win this.

If all goes well for Team Elliott, we have the set-up definitively to find out. It is more difficult to reproduce those tag-team tactics on an undulating track compared with a flat one and when your opponents know what’s coming. But King Of Kingsfield only need drag her to four out, from which point – as Ruby has described more than once – Kennedy can get rolling down the hill.

A full-gas Constitution Hill would love that scenario – as he demonstrated in that dusty form-line of three years ago when thumping no less a rival than Jonbon by 22 lengths – so I’m assuming Nico de Boinville will just ensure he’s keeping tabs on the mare and may the best horse win.

Under pressure, you might posit Brighterdaysahead – a chasing type undone by a crawl in last year’s Dawn Run – is the more likely to make a chance-ending mistake, but her main rival can cut it fine when showing off sometimes and that last-hurdle error in January was uncharacteristic. This type of head-to-head invites one of them to crack.

If first-time cheekpieces do perk up State Man, as the Closutton team expects, that’s a dampener on those seeking to play in the market without both principals. Townend will surely play his cards after they’ve committed, meaning that even if Burdett Road or Golden Ace are ridden chilly, they won’t have track advantage over a likely still-superior rival ridden similarly. At best, this talented pair are surely playing for third – and that relies on one of the Big Two checking out.

Incidentally, Mullins’ comments about Lossiemouth’s clear perceived inferiority to State Man might provide some cause for concern even if you believe, as I do, that Constitution Hill will have come on for his Kempton success. Despite never travelling, that mare got closer to him than any previous rival and Burdett Road would have finished closer before making a howler at the last. 

In a championship match-up like this, it behoves a fan to take a position and mine is that Brighterdaysahead is a rare talent, upwardly mobile, perhaps encountering a great champion just past his peak.

I took a risk, backing both her and Lossiemouth on ante-post terms just after Christmas – a personal position explained here at the time. If betting now, I’d still want a reasonable price yet Brighterdaysahead has only shortened today. Yet with the warmth towards, and belief in, an unbeaten champion like Constitution Hill, I could still see that momentum flipping tomorrow.

I’m leaving this race to Ruby. Here’s the link for his explanation.

In my last column, I also recommended GERICAULT ROQUE each-way (five places) at 20/1. He finished second to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima and then replicated that form two starts later when third to Le Milos in the Coral Gold Trophy (previously the Hennessy), but suffered a setback meaning we didn’t see him again until January at Windsor. 

On a track that won’t ever suit a thorough stayer, he shaped as though retaining plenty of ability and has always threatened to excel granted a greater test of stamina.

This is a good moment to add another string to our bow, however. This is the strongest squad Gavin Cromwell has ever brought to Cheltenham and I’m anticipating a good first day for the yard to be augmented later in the week, too.

Here, he fields NOW IS THE HOUR who very much caught the eye when fourth at Navan last month – jumping well, responding immediately when asked but probably having been set too much to do. He was good enough to win a Grade Two as a novice hurdler and shapes as though marathon trips will suit. He might need testing ground, but at this stage it’s an unknown rather than a concern and he’s drifted to a more palatable price.