Let's Talk Racing: views on Paul Nicholls, Grey Dawning and horses to follow

JOSH: It’s a tough question, and honestly, I don’t see a Cheltenham Festival winner among the victors. However, I believe The Wallpark is showing significant improvement. His main goal last weekend may have been merely to qualify for the Pertemps Final, yet he still managed to win. Although Gordon [Elliott] initially planned to set him aside for March, I think he now deserves the chance to compete in a graded three-mile hurdle. If he struggles to compete at the top level, he’ll return to the Pertemps with a strong chance. Although he’ll carry a high weight, his class could help him prevail - similar to Sire Du Berlais’ impressive performances in the Pertemps Final a few years ago. 

It’s a close call between the two novice hurdle winners on Friday, but I’d lean toward Valgrand, who was simply outstanding. While Gale Mahler might not have performed at her best, that shouldn’t detract from Valgrand’s demolition job. He’ll develop into a top-class novice chaser next season. 

ANDREW: A good question Gav! It is hard to know whether we really have seen anything of substance enough over either of the three days between the two courses to equate to March Grade One form - and I suspect the answer is that we haven’t. Therefore, I would perhaps be looking at the Pertemps Qualifier as a way into ‘buying’ the Festival winner. The Wallpark was impressive, but now boasts a mark of 152 in Ireland, and might struggle off a massive weight in the Final, and I was a lot more taken by the run and the likely racing weight for Zain Nights come March. A rapid improver last season and still only five years of age, this horse could improve into an excellent prospect for the 3m handicap hurdle. As a result, he would be my selection. 

As much as the two novice hurdle winners on Friday were both impressive, I thought the bumper on Saturday looked strong to the naked eye. Block Rockin Beats was a good winner, but preference would be for Fortune De Mer - who showed a good turn of foot to quicken into contention and perhaps a certain level of rawness prevented him from quite going through with the effort to win the race. He should be winning a bumper next time, and I’d be disappointed if he didn’t build into being a lovely long-term prospect. 

JOSH: October is notoriously tricky for betting, as it often requires second-guessing how fit a horse might be. Nigel Twiston-Davies, below, and Sam Thomas consistently find winners at this time of year, possibly targeting the lucrative prize money while the big names are just getting started. I’m always confident that Nicky Henderson’s horses will be ready first time up, whether that’s in October or April. Harry Derham mentioned he’s leaving a bit more to work on with his horses compared to last year, so I’m eager to back his runners when they make their second appearances this season. 

One strategy I like to employ is backing a winter horse that has run once and been beaten by a hard-fit summer horse. This winter horse often has the fitness advantage over others making their seasonal debuts. 

ANDREW: Early season betting can often be filled with difficulties whether it be at Chepstow, Cheltenham in October or any of these other starting Festivals. I think over time one can get used to what trainers like to target certain meetings, with the likes of Nigel Twiston-Davies and Kim Bailey tending to value winners at Cheltenham in the early stages of the season. One can often rely on John McConnell at these types of meetings as well - as he often favours giving horses a few runs in the late summer and is purposely targeting certain races in the calendar, that are early in the year. 

It is obviously not an exact science, but with more and more of the high-end trainers such as Paul Nicholls and Gordon Elliot leaving more to work on with their horses at the start of the season, to prioritise spring campaigns - I would always give a closer look to those slightly smaller yards - that might be wanting to scoop a big pot earlier in the season. 

JOSH: Celtic Dino at Wincanton delivered on hurdles debut. Rising star Dylan Johnston wasted no time, sending his horse to the front, dictated the pace, and he jumped brilliantly. He quickened effortlessly, hardly breaking sweat. That’s exactly what I want to see from a novice hurdler. Sam Thomas has a promising novice on his hands. 

ANDREW: There have been some nice hurdling and chasing introductions already this season, but I was most taken by the performance of Moneygarrow in the Bumper of Silver Trophy Day at Chepstow. Having won his point-to-point and since joining Dan Skelton, this horse had a decent reputation to live up to, but put in a convincing performance to bat away a good field in fine fashion. He might be one that they take it slowly with this season, but I would not be surprised should he be one for the Aintree Grand National Meeting Bumper at the end of the season. 

JOSH: All this talk about Paul Nicholls being out of form is simply nonsense. He has sent out 102 runners this season, with 24 winning (I've just watched his Quebecois bolt up at Chepstow!) and 54 finishing in the top three. While some of his promising bumper winners from last season have needed the run or underperformed, that’s typical for novices! Rubaud looked just as impressive as ever when winning the Listed Hurdle at Kempton Park a week ago. 

I have no concerns about any of the runners from Ditcheat in the near future. Whether it’s the Charlie Hall, Betfair Chase, or King George, Paul will have a big day in mind for Bravemasgame. I can also see Caldwell Potter landing a Grade One novice chase over here, possibly in the Henry VIII or Scilly Isles at Sandown Park. Ginny’s Destiny heads to the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham with a solid chance and is likely to be aimed at the King George afterwards, where he could well feature in the finish. 

ANDREW: As much as I think the talk about the Nicholls form has been blown slightly out of context, I can see why plenty are having concerns for some of these horses badly needing a run. Perhaps it is a case of him leaving more to work on than the usual, but Rubaud aside (who was winning a very winnable race), plenty of the novices and experienced horses have run a little below par. At this moment in time, I am treading quite carefully when assessing his horses and respective betting propositions. 

When it comes to the aforementioned three horses - I think it depends what targets they have lined up. Bravemansgame will surely be campaigned around another tilt at the King George, which is he likely to go to after a run at Haydock. As much as he disappointed last season, I certainly would not be putting a line through him at Kempton just yet. Caldwell Potter will be likely one to improve as the season goes on, and as much as it is hard to equate how good he shall be - he should be contesting races such as the Scilly Isles and the Manifesto come the end of the season. Ginny’s Destiny seems Paddy Power bound, and I will have no doubt that he will be cherry ripe for that race, given Nicholls often targets it and it will be his main aim of the season. He is a short price for that race, given we are a few weeks away - but he should be massively respected. 

JOSH: Does anyone have early prices for Grey Dawning to win the Betfair Chase? I’ll be backing him, provided he performs well this weekend at Wetherby. Trainer Dan Skelton has indicated that Grey Dawning will improve significantly for a run in the Charlie Hall in preparation for the Betfair Chase. His impressive victory over Gaillard Du Mesnil in the Graduation Chase on the same card last year suggests that this challenge is perfectly suited to him. 

As you can probably tell, I have a strong affinity for Grey Dawning and believe he has the potential to become a top-class three-mile chaser. I see him being competitive in the King George and even the Gold Cup over the next couple of years. He’s undoubtedly the leading British contender. 

I recall a conversation with Dan Skelton on the podcast before Grey Dawning had even jumped a hurdle in public. He mentioned that the horse had no business winning two bumpers in his first two starts, given he was just a big, raw baby. It’s evident that he’s always had something special about him. 

ANDREW:Grey Dawning is one of the horses I am most looking forward to tracking this season, after taking to him massively last year in his novice chase campaign. He has been given a speculative entry in the Charlie Hall Chase this weekend, with Dan Skelton saying that he was proceeding with caution on this entry, given the likely ground might be a little bit lively. 

As much as I am a massive advocate for seeing horses as much as we can throughout the season, from a solely selfish perspective - I would love to see him go straight to the Betfair Chase, which given his record around Haydock Park - surely looks tailor-made for him. He is a strong traveller who loves the nature of that track and should be hard to beat - no matter what horses he comes up against. After that, and it might be result depending, is a lot more complex to map out. I would be keen to see him in the King George, as I don’t feel he lacks pace, and could also be suited by the unique test that Kempton demands. If they decide to skip that, could they be interested in a swing at the Cotswolds Chase, and get a rough idea of his prospective stamina for a Gold Cup trip. 

All these options are thoroughly exciting, and I see no reason why he should not develop into a top Grade One performer this season. I know connections will be aiming high and aiming at the Gold Cup, but my gut instinct tells me that stamina test could be a bridge too far - but I am more than happy to be proven wrong! 

It was extremely close to a winning start to the column on Sunday as Rue Taylor - who was last week’s selection ran an eye-catching second in her maiden hurdle at Wexford. Having gotten a little bit out of her ground, she perhaps needed the experience on this occasion and should be winning next time out. 

It would be remiss for this week’s horse to not be the star of the show, Sandor Clegane - who has reverted to hurdles with an entry in the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby on Saturday. Connections could be plotting a campaign of mixing and matching under both codes, but this does seem like a division worth exploiting - with the British staying hurdling division thin on the ground. He shall have to oppose Grade One scorer Strong Leader, who is a formidable opponent, but if he was to transfer some of his best novice form to the table, I would like to hope he should be very competitive in this type of race with this being in the plans for a small while.  (ABW)

I'll give you two to keep a close eye on. Ma Jacks Hill, a winning pointer purchased for €310,000 by Gigginstown House Stud, is one of 11 entries in the bumper at Down Royal (3.50) on Friday, trained by Gordon Elliott. He’s displaying all the right signs at home and ranks among Elliott’s most promising prospects yet to make their debut.

Also, keep an eye on He Can't Dance, who is entered in the same bumper and shares the same connections. (JS)