Six losers at Cheltenham who should be winning soon

It can often pay to race on the pace on the Old Course at Cheltenham and that was certainly the case at The Showcase meeting.

With the ground being good, those who raced up on the speed thrived, while those trying to swoop from off the pace found themselves mostly fighting losing battles.

All bar one of the 14 winners on Friday made all or raced prominently, with the exception being The Wallpark in the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle on Saturday. He now seems likely to be put away for the Festival in March and many will have probably forgotten that by then.

This was also the first meeting where Cheltenham introduced padded hurdles, which have a proven track record of reducing fallers by 11 per cent plus help reduce cuts and bruises.

Coincidence or not, all bar one the 62 horses who ran over hurdles at the meeting completed, with the exception being pulled up. It meant that 586 hurdles were negotiated without a faller or an unseated rider.

Let’s hope that continues over the months ahead. Padded hurdles are being introduced at all Jockey Club-owned racecourses, at a cost of £500,000.

John McConnell does not seem to have been in any rush to switch Andy’s Flame to fences, but it looks like he’s going to be a much better chaser than hurdler. 

The seven-year-old grey won on his point debut in May 2021 – beating the useful Rambo T – but didn’t make his debut over fences under Rules until Downpatrick this month, when he was an encouraging second. He built on that here, 15 days later, when a never-nearer fifth in this race from 5lb out of the handicap under his conditional rider. 

Trying to swoop from well off the pace was always going to be a tall order, despite the brisk pace, but the RaceiQ data tells us he jumped best (gained 9.62 lengths), with his only blemish being two out when he lost 5.18mph and his speed recovery time was 2.3 sec (it had been no bigger than 0.8sec at the other 14 obstacles). 

Andys Flame jumped best at six of the 15 fences, including at the first and the last. That speed from A to B is going to stand him in good stead going forwards and his connections also have longer trips than 2m 4f to explore, as he has plenty of stamina in his pedigree. Maybe the assessor will turn a blind eye and let him run off his old mark next time, or maybe not. Either way, he’s one to keep a close eye on. 

This long-striding individual was still in contention when falling two out on his chasing bow, brushing through the obstacle and being unable to get organised quick enough on the landing side. 

It was an unfortunate first experience over fences, but he had jumped more than adequately up until then, and he must have pleasing in his schooling sessions at home for Joe Tizzard to start him off at Cheltenham. 

Lord Of Thunder had impressed when winning novice hurdles in the mud at Wincanton last winter but had been off since early January. It’s impossible to say what would have unfolded on Saturday had he stayed on his feet, but he’s bred more for chasing and a mark of 129 may well underestimate him (he didn’t run in a handicap over hurdles). 

Of course, his connections could switch him to an ordinary (and probably small-field) novice chase, especially if they are worried about any dented confidence. 

This bumper generally yields a good horse, with I Am Maximus, this year’s Grand National winner, and My Drogo, subsequent Grade One-winning hurdler, fighting out the finish in 2020. 

The past two runners-up have been the Dan Skelton-trained Valgrand (3/3 over hurdles and bolted up in a Grade two at Cheltenham on Friday) and Strong Leader (subsequent Grade One winner). 

It was another Skelton runner, Fortune De Mer, who caught the eye in finishing second this time. 

The four-year-old chestnut travelled strongly and supporters of the 5/1 chance must have been on good terms with himself when he swept to the front. He traded 1.03 in-running about this point. 

However, he initially carried his head to one side and looked raw. That opened the door for the year older Block Rockin Beats, who had been more prominently ridden, to rally and take the spoils by half a length. 

With this experience behind him, Fortune De Mer is a banker to land a bumper at the very least. And history tells us that he may be worth following some way down the line. 

The four-year-old filly, trained by Peter & Michael Bowen, had unseated her rider at the first hurdle on her previous start and her jumping here was scruffy in the initial stages, too. 

The RaceiQ data reveals she was in the “red” over the first five obstacles, meaning she lost several lengths on her rivals and that jockey Sean Bowen had to be content with a place towards the rear of the field. 

Letterson Lily had an impossible task from the home turn the way things unfolded but she jumped better in the closing stages and kept on powerfully to be a never-nearer fourth behind all-the-way winner Wyenot. 

By the finish, Letterson Lily had been beaten under four lengths, losing double that margin with the winner in terms of jumping. Her third to Flying Fortune, her stablemate, at Worcester in August has worked out well and a mark of 114 clearly will not be beyond her another day. 

The Short Go because is going to face a hike in the ratings for his second here but this looks a strong bit of form and, on balance, he may be able to cope with the attention of the assessor. 

He found his similarly unexposed stablemate, Senior Chief, just over a length too strong on Saturday, but pulled 11 lengths clear of the favourite, Broadway Boy, in third. He was 1lb out of the handicap here and I’d expect him to go up another 6lb or so for this effort. 

Even so, he’s still only going to be in the low 130s – probably lower in Ireland – and this was only his fourth start over fences, so more improvement is on the cards. His jumping was a big asset – the RaceiQ data tells us he gained 12.84 lengths in the air – and he was especially proficient when the tempo of the race was at its quickest. 

He clearly stays well but has shown his effectiveness over shorter. Don’t discount him if he drops back to about 2m4f, provided a good gallop is on the cards.