Let's Talk Racing: State Man, the Gold Cup picture and Sunday tip

JOSH: First off, the Morgiana set the stage for a thrilling weekend of racing. Brighterdaysahead wasn’t entirely smooth over her hurdles, flattening a few along the way, but her sheer determination and class saw her bounce back to defeat the reigning champion. That said, considering the factors you've mentioned, I’d be inclined to back State Man to reverse that form if they were to meet again in a month’s time. It was clear he needed the run, and ultimately fitness was the key difference between victory and defeat.

As for his improvement, I’m not entirely convinced. He’s always shown a high level of form, particularly at Leopardstown and Punchestown, so it's difficult to see where there’s significant untapped potential.

ANDREW: It is an interesting debate this, as it hard to know where to strike the balance between perhaps allowing State Man off for getting tired on his seasonal reappearance and giving the mare her dues for digging deep to win. This was probably the warmest Morgiana that State Man has had to contest, so we should be giving the winner a lot of credit for reaching what is a high bar. However, while I am no paddock expert State Man looked like he would strip a lot fitter for the run to me eye, and it will be a different kettle of fish around his home turf at Leopardstown at Christmas. 

I'm not sure whether he is improving at this stage, but he sets a very high bar for the rest to reach. I would not be surprised to see him bounce back at Leopardstown in a month's time and potentially still be the standard-setter for March. There are plenty of question marks around a few of his rivals, yet you know exactly what State Man is going to bring to the table. 

JOSH: Thanks for sending this in, Jamie! It might seem unusual to send your two best chasers to the same race, but Willie Mullins isn’t focused on anything other than getting both of them to the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Anything can happen come March, and if you’re able to line up with the favourite and second favourite for the biggest prize of them all then you’re doing something right!

I’ve seen a few people suggesting that the John Durkan marked a "changing of the guard," but I’m not so sure about that. Fact To File was outstanding and clearly has the speed for a shorter trip - something that might be gradually slipping away from Galopin Des Champs. That said, Galopin ran a huge race and lost no credit in defeat. He was ridden aggressively, jumped beautifully and was beaten only by two exceptional second-season chasers. To put it into perspective, Grangeclare West tried to go with Galopin early on and ended up stopping to a walk.

ANDREW: Mullins has been known for splitting up his best horses when it comes to novice races at the Festival but, when it comes to the Gold Cup, he will not feel any need to keep these two apart. In fact, the more bullets he has to fire the better. In Galopin Des Champs and Fact To File, Mullins has a stranglehold at the top of this division and the John Durkan was a perfect race to get the juices flowing for what lies ahead in the coming months. 

I don't feel like anyone would have come away disappointed from the weekend: Fact To File showed he could take the rise in grade, Spillane's Tower was excellent despite being '90 per cent fit' according to his trainer, and there is a large argument that Galopin Des Champs was the best we've seen him going right-handed for a long time. It makes the division fascinating. I am still in the camp of the two-time winner ahead of the Gold Cup, but it will be fascinating to see who comes out on top in March. 

JOSH: What are my options? Do I go for the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, where Galopin Des Champs has been so dominant in the past? Probably not, unless we're content with finishing second without having to travel too far.

Would a sharp, right-handed test like the King George VI Chase at Kempton suit him? Most definitely. And is the competition likely to be of the same calibre as Galopin Des Champs or Fact To File? Unlikely. 

Decision made: It’s the King George for him. After that, we’ll head back to Leopardstown for the Irish Gold Cup.

ANDREW: Of all the main protagonists in the John Durkan, Fastorslow was the only one that I was slightly underwhelmed by considering I felt that he had the most going for him beforehand. He was taken out of the King George earlier in the season, but they may well reverse that decision should the Kempton showpiece keep cutting up the way it is at the moment. 

The worry for Fastorslow is where would you go in Ireland with him? He will find no way of getting away from long-term rival Galopin Des Champs or new kids on the block Fact To File and Spillane's Tower. I don't feel connections would be scared to roll the dice at Leopardstown - whether that be at Christmas or the Dublin Racing Fetival - but the question is where I would send him. If he was mine, he would be getting the boat over to Kempton for the 26th!

JOSH: I’d love to answer this one next week, as the market could look very different in seven days. It was great to hear Nicky Henderson give a positive update on Constitution Hill, with his chances of returning in the Christmas Hurdle looking stronger. That said, backing him at 4-1 requires a lot of faith in a horse who is clearly fragile and may not ever be back to his best.

As for the Hatton’s Grace, I think Lossiemouth will take some stopping. Unless the ground turns really heavy, she has far too much speed for Teahupoo. In my opinion, both Mystical Power and Sir Gino will need to make significant improvements on last year’s form if they’re to be in contention.

ANDREW: The Constitution Hill saga is like tuning into a soap every evening; a guilty pleasure but you can't help coming back for more. At this moment in time, I would be very reluctant to go near him at any sort of price until we see that he is actually declared to run on the track. Sir Gino will test his credentials against Mystical Power this weekend, which should be an excellent race on paper, and I would be hopeful that can give us some type of gauge as to where those challengers are.

The 4/1 may seem huge come the day of the Champion Hurdle, but it's a price I'm not willing to entertain in the slightest. 

JOSH: The notion of four-year-olds struggling in their first season in open company is a well-worn racing cliché and for good reason. How many times have we seen an unbeaten juvenile in November who’s “going to threaten the Champion Hurdle picture,” only for nothing to come of it? Remarkably, ahead of that Newbury gallop, Sir Gino wasn’t even being considered as a Champion Hurdle contender - trainer Nicky Henderson was planning to send him chasing.

Now, with Constitution Hill absent, Sir Gino has stepped into the limelight, much like an eager substitute running down the touchline, applauding the away fans in the corner, hoping to be remembered as the best replacement since Ole Gunnar Solskjær.

Burdett Road winning the Greatwood certainly adds optimism that this season's juvenile crop might be stronger than previous years. I do think Sir Gino has the potential to get the better of Mystical Power this weekend, but I still feel both of them are some way off the likes of State Man, Lossiemouth, and Brighterdaysahead.

ANDREW: With one horse's absence comes another horse's opportunity. 

While the media stepped away and pondered over a lacklustre gallop from Constitution Hill at Newbury recently, it might have only been me who was thinking 'how well did Sir Gino go there'. Such gallops may not be worth paying attention to, but this flashy four-year-old was impressive last season in his three starts and rates as a key player of the Grade One hurdling picture this season, especially should his famous stablemate not play ball. 

He won't have it all his own way though, as Mystical Power brings some of the best novice hurdle form to the table, including back-to-back Grade One wins at the backend of last season. There is a strong argument that he improved as the season went on, and we are yet to see whether he has what it takes to deliver such a big performance first time out. However, he does have age on his side and a little more match practice to lean on. 

I think these two horses are potentially being slept on in the Champion Hurdle market, and it would not surprise me to see a big clash on Saturday, with preference just for Sir Gino. 

A NOLAN/CONNELL/MCKIERNAN/MCCONNELL HORSE TO BACK: The Winter Festival at Fairyhouse is a tremendous spectacle and I am hoping for some Barry Connell magic in the Porterstown Handicap Chase on Sunday (1.05). My Immortal has been a horse on my radar for a long time now and I think he has plenty of upside for marathon trips looking at plenty of his form. He improved last year from run to run, finishing fourth in the 3m4f Punchestown National Trial on his final start of the season. He was a good fifth on his reappearance at Galway over a trip too short and he should improve for a step back up to this distance, and hopefully with a bit of juice in the ground. I'm expecting a big run. 

A DEBUTANT TO WATCH: We didn’t get to see Ma Jacks Hill at Punchestown, but it’s likely he’ll make an appearance this weekend at Fairyhouse. It’s a meeting Gordon Elliott has used as a stepping stone for top horses like Envoi Allen, Grand Paradis, Better Days Ahead and Jalon D’oudairies. He Can’t Dance might also be among the entries - and he’s a promising sort to watch, too.