Ante-post tips: a 40-1 Arkle contender hiding in plain sight

Those who grumble that the Jump season revolves all around the Cheltenham Festival had to press the mute button over the weekend.

The John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase was an absolute belter and came just 24 hours after a compelling Morgiana Hurdle.

Throw in a bruising Betfair Chase, some taking novice displays and a bumper performance that had a wow factor, and this was a weekend that had something for everyone.

These days, of course, we also have the RaceiQ metrics to help us understand exactly what went on.

The data yielded plenty of revealing stats and suggests that now may be the time to be having an ante-post play on a 40-1 chance in the Arkle market. 

Punchestown’s Premier Weekend included two impressive front-running novice chase performances. was an emphatic 13-length winner on his debut over fences over 2m3f on Saturday, while Touch Me Not put up a slick display in the Grade Two BetVictor Craddockstown Novice Chase 24 hours later. 

Ballyburn is now no bigger than 2-1 to win the Arkle in March, with Touch Me Not 40-1 for the same race. Judged on what we saw at the weekend, coupled with the RaceiQ data, that huge gulf between the pair is not easy to comprehend. 

An easy victory for Ballyburn – his seventh from eight outings under Rules - could not mask the fact that he is going to have. to polish his jumping for the stiffer assignments that lie ahead. 

He gained only 3.39 lengths with his leaping, and that figure flattered him, too, as he gained 3.78 lengths at the final fence when his seven remaining rivals were all tiring. Up until the tenth fence, he had lost 2.7 lengths in the air, with his speed recovery time being 0.9 sec or worse at eight of the 14 obstacles. 

Overall, he was outjumped by Oracle Des Mottes (7.04), Release The Beast (9.23) and Ataboycharlie 5.48. That trio have hurdle ratings of 127, 120 and 130. 

Of course, it would be unfair to judge Ballyburn (rated 162 over hurdles) too harshly on what was his first day at school over fences, and his ability to keep up a relentless gallop will no doubt enable last season’s Gallagher winner to outclass plenty more opponents. However, it was a little disconcerting that he lost ground at fences eight (1.54 lengths), nine (1.74 lengths) and ten (0.7 lengths) at a time when you would have been expecting him to have got his eye in. 

The 2-1 for the Arkle (he’s 6-4 in places) is skinny, especially as it also remains to be seen which direction he will go in terms of distance. The Turners, over 2m 5f, would surely have been his target this term had the race not been scrapped. Whether he drops to 2m or steps up to 3m will no doubt be partly determined by who else Willie Mullins has for each category. 

By contrast, Touch Me Not is an out-and-out 2m performer and he was electric in slamming some smart rivals in Sunday’s Grade Two. Farren Glory (rated 146 over hurdles) and Nurburgring (150) chased him home, but neither could lay a glove on the six-length victor. 

Touch Me Not took at least nine lengths off all the others with his jumping and was best of the whole field at nine of the 12 fences (Ballyburn only jumped best at one of the first 14 fences despite being up against inferior opposition).

Front-runners like Touch Me Not can be favoured by the RaceiQ “lengths gained” metric by virtue of being allowed to express themselves more than horses being held up, although it can go two ways. 

The Gordon Elliott-trained five-year-old, who had also impressed in the jumping department on his chasing bow last month (gained more than 20 lengths), entered five of the fences at 30mph or more and his speed recovery time was no worse than 0.9sec. 

He never missed a beat and was not hanging about it, winning in a time that was just 9.2sec slower than standard. The winning time also compared favourably to the John Durkan later in the afternoon, which was over further but run in a time 14.9sec slower than standard. For what it is worth, Ballyburn won in a time 23.5sec slower than standard, albeit he was nothing like extended. 

The Craddockstown roll of honour includes two other all-the-way winners in Sizing John (2015) and Notebook (2019). The former went on to win a Cheltenham Gold Cup, while the latter won two Grade One prizes in his novice campaign. 

A natural next stop for Touch Me Not would have been the Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, but that Grade One contest has been axed. Wherever he turns up, he should not be underestimated. 

Ante-post bet: back Touch Me Not each-way for the Arkle at 40-1 with Betfair, Paddy Power or Sky Bet. 

A tremendous renewal of the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase featured a field who had collectively won 19 Grade One races between them. 

It delivered all it promised, with no hard-luck stories and

Galopin Des Champs

and

Fact To File

jumping the final fence together as one, having been joint-favourites for the Cheltenham Gold Cup before the tapes rose. 

Many hailed the day as a changing of the guard, with Fact To File pulling almost three lengths clear of Galopin Des Champs and then gamely repelling Spillane’s Tower. The first two, both exciting second-season chasers owned by JP McManus, were building on the Grade One prizes they scooped in the spring and are clearly going to be major forces over the months ahead. 

Fact To File gained 6.48 lengths with his jumping, although it was only over the final three fences – when the temperature of the race was reaching boiling point – that his precision came into its own. He entered each at more than 30mph (he had been under that speed for the first 11 fences) and gained 1.54, 3.21 and 1.69 lengths at those obstacles. At the second last, he attacked at 32mph. 

We don’t have the data for Spillane’s Tower yet, but we do for Galopin Des Champs, and not for the first time it reveals that this outstanding racehorse could scale even greater heights if he could add a bit more snap, crackle and pop to his leaping. 

Overall, he lost 0.41 lengths with his jumping. In other words, he surrendered almost seven lengths to Fact To File, the difference between victory and defeat. 

To the naked eye, it looked like Galopin Des Champs was jumping fine from the front, but this is where the data comes into its own. The metrics – time in the jumping envelope, entry and exit speeds at each fence and recovery time – reveal he had actually lost 2.43 lengths up until the eleventh fence. Instead of gliding over his obstacles, like the impeccable Fastorslow, he was constantly having to dig into his reserves. 

Critically, he lost 6.7mph when ballooning the penultimate fence and his speed recovery time over the final fence, when he had a brief stutter on landing, was 2sec. That was one of seven occasions where his speed recovery time was a 1sec or more. 

That may not seem a lot, but the fractions add up. Keep in mind that Touch Me Not, discussed earlier, never lost more than 4.66mph at any fence, while his slowest speed recovery time was 0.9 sec. And he was having just his second start over fences. 

We don’t need the RaceiQ to know that Galopin Des Champs has now been beaten on his past four visits to Punchestown, and it’s reasonable to assume the 2m3½f trip is on the sharp side for the two-time Gold Cup winner. 

Given he had also had a blip in his preparation, it might have also been that he needed the run more than the younger pair who finished in front of him. He has been beaten first time up in three of his five campaigns for Mullins. 

All in all, this was a highly encouraging return by the champ, for all that new kids have arrived on his block.

Last season, he was beaten in the John Durkan before running away with the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, when he gained 9.69 lengths with his jumping and was making it 5/5 in chase races at the track. A rematch with Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower in that race would be one to savour. 

Meanwhile, the well-backed favourite, Fastorslow, again gave an exhibition in the jumping department, gaining 8.42 lengths, but it was not enough for him to retain his crown. The pace had been steady when he won the race 12 months before and perhaps the stronger fractions found him out fitness wise on this occasion. He is now trailing Galopin Des Champs 4-3 in their personal battles. 

Fact To File is a best-priced 11-4 for the Gold Cup as I type this Monday morning, with Galopin Des Champs 4-1, having briefly touched 5-1 post-race. Spillane’s Tower is a standout 14-1 with Coral (as short as 8-1 elsewhere), with Fastorslow the same price. The Gold Cup trip remains a question mark for Fact To File and at this stage I’d prefer to stay loyal to Galopin Des Champs who, after all, is still only a year older than him, for all that he’s been exposed to more battles. 

Monty’s Star didn’t show up on Sunday but his form ties in closely with Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower. He looks the sleeper in the market at 20-1. 

The 20th edition of the Betfair Chase was the slowest ever run, although it must be noted that the first Grade One race of the British Jumps season was run over a shorter trip until 2017. 

A strong early pace coupled with sapping conditions led to a slow-motion finish and Royal Pagaille stopping the clock in 7min 7.2sec. He had won in a time 25sec quicker 12 months earlier, when the going was also officially “soft”. 

To put Saturday’s time into perspective, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, over further and on a stiffer rack, has not been run in a slower time than that since Desert Orchid won on desperate ground in 1989. 

Royal Pagaille and Grey Dawning had the race to themselves approaching the final fence and it looked like the latter had the prize at his mercy as he overhauled his front-running rival seemingly travelling best. 

However, he drifted left and bunny-hopped the final obstacle, costing him ground and momentum, as reflected by the RaceiQ metrics. Having entered the fence travelling at 26.53mph, he exited it at 23.08mph and his speed recovery time was 1.8sec, so in total lost 7.24mph. 

His slowest exit speed at the previous 18 fences had been 25.52mph. 

Royal Pagaille went into the final fence travelling at 24.3mph but, crucially, came away just a smidgeon slower at 24.19mph. He lost only 4.34mph. 

The Venetia William’s trained ten-year-old only gained about half a length over Grey Dawning in the air but there had been a crucial shift in momentum and Grey Dawning, having his first outing since April, was unable to finish what he had started. 

His final furlong of 19.69sec reflected he was out on his feet, having travelled exuberantly, and was considerably slower than the winner and even third-placed Bravemansgame, having been quickest in the field for the previous five furlongs. 

He remains Britain’s No 1 hope for the Gold Cup, although he is in among a vintage crop of staying chasers and this was something of a gruelling return. The Skelton brothers have been swift to acknowledge that, and it seems he will have only one more run – in either the Cotswold Chase or Denman – before heading to Cheltenham. He’s a general 16-1. 

Bravemansgame is 100-1 for the Gold Cup after extending his losing streak but I thought he was a creditable third given the ground had gone against him and that he didn’t jump anything like as well as he normally can in first-time blinkers, although the deep going may have been a factor in that. 

The RaceiQ metrics reveals he lost about 14 lengths getting from A to B compared to the pair who beat him, and he was beaten only a dozen lengths. It will be interesting to see whether the headgear is ditched when he tries to regain his Ladbrokes King George VI Chase crown next month. He’s 33-1 with the sponsors, with Royale Pagaille 25-1 with Unibet for that contest. 

Did we see the Champion Bumper winner in action on Sunday? 

It’s not a race that Gigginstown House Stud seems to have a great affinity for, although they did go close with Jalon D’oudairies last season, and they have a leading early candidate this time in Kalypso'chance, who put up a strong staying performance when a 15-length winner of the bumper that closed the Punchestown Premier weekend on Sunday. 

The sectionals reveal Gordon Elliott’s four-year-old was pouring it on at the finish, despite his jockey easing down. The winning time was 17 seconds quicker than 12 months earlier (also officially run on soft ground) and Elliott had scooped the 2022 running with Caldwell Potter. 

Kalypso'chance’s finishing speed percentage was more than 104%, whereas everything else in the field was 98% or lower. He clocked 42.93sec for the final three furlongs, with the best of the opposition being Soir De Garde, the runner-up, who managed 46.06sec. 

Soir De Garde, trained by Willie Mullins, is a half-brother to State Man, the Champion Hurdle winner, but he was left behind over the final two furlongs. The third home, WB  Easy, had shaped well when under ten lengths fifth in a 100,000 euro bumper on his debut at the Punchestown Festival in May. He was beaten an aggregate of 42 lengths here, although admittedly he did look like he would come on for the run, plus was a little keen. 

Kalypso'chance is by Masked Marvel (sire of the stable’s Stayers’ Hurdle winner Teahupoo) and is out of a dam who was placed over hurdles at up to 2m3f in France. Elliott confirmed afterwards that he will stay in bumpers this season and describes him as “a next-year horse”. 

He's a best-priced 10-1 for the Champion Bumper. It’s early in the season to be getting involved, but he’s put down an early marker.