Let's Talk Racing: bad early Festival favourites and views on Jonbon

JOSH: I've got a couple of bad favourites to point out. First up is Jonbon, who’s absurdly priced as the favourite for the Ryanair with several firms. The idea is ridiculous, as something would have to go drastically wrong for Nicky Henderson to consider anything other than the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Based on all current form, he’s the best two-mile chaser in Britain — arguably even the top across Britain and Ireland if you take his Celebration Chase win over El Fabiolo at face value. The Ryanair? It’s simply never going to happen. I’d need 20-1 just for him to show up in the race, let alone 4-1 to win it. 

The second bad favourite is Willy De Houelle. He’s already been slashed to a short price for the Triumph Hurdle, despite having never raced in Britain or Ireland. Sure, our podcast with Adam Mills might have contributed to the hype, but still, even if he were Arkle reincarnated, no horse should be 5-1 for the Triumph Hurdle without having set foot on a racecourse for their new trainer. 

ANDREW: These are often hard questions to answer at this time of the season, as you have plenty of horses who are at the top of the market for two different races, especially across the novice events. The horse on my mind that I don’t feel will go near this respective race is Ballyburn for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, where he is the standout in the market. Willie doesn’t tend to send his very best to the 3m race and although the omission of the Turners this season will pose some questions, I don’t see a world where this horse competes over 3m before maybe Punchestown at best. He looks the type Willie will try to step back down in trip rather than up, and should not be considered a good price for the Brown Advisory as a result. 

JOSH: Gordon is running out of time, but success in racing tends to come in cycles. With the endless stream of talent flowing into Closutton, it’s hard to imagine the crown resting anywhere but on Willie’s head for the foreseeable future. Still, owners are pouring more resources than ever into Cullentra, and Gordon has been the top spender at public auctions for several years. It might take a Gold Cup horse or two, but he’s doing everything possible to find them. If the stars align, I believe it could happen for him one year. So, I’m saying yes. 

ANDREW: There is no doubt that Gordon has been awfully unlucky with the timing of his period of achievement, as it has coincided with an enormous groundswell of achievements for Willie Mullins. I do think there will come a time where the changing of the guard may allow Gordon to take over, but it may have to be when Willie is perhaps taking a bit more of a backseat, and I can’t see that happening any time soon. Gordon will have to remain patient and try to stick with the excellent list of owners he has at his disposal. Bective Stud for instance have been really trying to focus on quality over quantity in the past few seasons, and perhaps the likes of Found A Fifty and Firefox can be a springboard for them to achieve some bigger success, and propel Gordon back into this conversation. 

JOSH: Anno Power impressed me with her win at Sandown Park on Sunday. You might think I’m overreacting, given that she had already shown strong form by winning bumpers at Ascot and Cheltenham. However, a lot went wrong on her hurdles debut: her jumping was far from fluent, and she made a horror mistake at the last. Despite these setbacks, she put her head down and flew home against rivals who were no mugs. She struck me as a top-class mare and could be the perfect successor to fill the gap left in Harry Fry’s stable since Love Envoi was sold for breeding. 

On the other hand, Dan Skelton’s promising mare Let It Rain left me disappointed at Chepstow. As it stands, I think Anno Power is shaping up to be the leading British mare heading down the Dawn Run path. 

ANDREW: I think a horse that certainly many people are sleeping on is Bleu De Vassy, who couldn’t have been any more impressive on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse a month ago. It was an ordinary race, but he couldn’t have done it any more impressively. He jumped with a slickness that I was impressed with and his pedigree and size would suggest that a step up in trip will suit. I’m not sure just how far he could rise up the ranks at Cullentra, but it would not be a surprise to me to see him progress into a potential Albert Bartlett horse in time - and end up being a lovely staying chaser. He will have to improve plenty to get to that, but he might just be able to. 

JOSH: Jonbon is undoubtedly a very talented horse and is becoming increasingly reliable, but I’m not convinced he’s ever shown his best at Cheltenham. If he were to win this season's Queen Mother Champion Chase, I’d lean towards it being due to a collapse in the opposition rather than Jonbon making more significant improvement. He just doesn’t strike me as a horse who truly relishes the Cheltenham hill, a feeling I've had even after his wins at the track. 

That said, it's clear he has a strong rapport with Nico de Boinville, perhaps the most harmonious partnership he's had with any jockey, and he has certainly improved for their partnership. I’m just not sure it’s enough to win in March. 

ANDREW: Jonbon is a horse that has continued to confuse and bewilder me as the seasons go on. Being a brother of Douvan - I was obsessed with this horse in the early days, seeing every single bit of encouragement necessary from his novice campaign, and potentially seeing him finish the business that Douvan was so cruelly not allowed to complete due to injuries. However, as much as I have a lot of time for Jonbon - I am one of the few that doesn’t seem to think he is a Champion Chase winner in waiting. 

It’s very easy to sit on the sidelines and say I could have done better than that when watching a game of football - and the same attitude applies when you have a horse not run in a race which doesn’t end up looking too strong. That happened in the Champion Chase last year, and I certainly am more of a fan of horses that do the talking at Cheltenham, rather than crying for ‘what-ifs’ on the sidelines. 

I am fully convinced that despite winning last year’s Shloer Chase - that Cheltenham is not really his track. I would be all over him for a Queen Mother should it be run at Sandown Park, but unfortunately it is not. He has been comprehensively beaten at two Festivals, got beaten in a sub-par renewal of a Clarence House, and although he was impressive in last year’s Shloer - his final 100 yards were his worst in my opinion. I fully expect him to make a winning reappearance on Friday, as the field against him holds no fears for him - but would I be rushing in to take the 3-1 about him for the big day at March? No, I would not. 

Unfortunately, the race that Lieutenant Mayne ran in on Sunday at Naas cut up massively, leading to him being a very short ¼ favourite. There were no excuses to hide behind and Ben Harvey didn’t shy away from the task - with the horse winning readily and looks a nice sort for the future. 

On to more pressing matters at hand though and with the Navan Racing Festival taking place this weekend, it will be another chance to see a number of good prospects. My horse to keep on side from the resident trainers is Apple’s Of Bresil - who will run in the Monksfield Novice Hurdle on Sunday at 1.20. They have always held this horse in high regard and after a few under-par efforts at Galway - where late errors cost against him - he did not fluff his lines at Gowran last time out. I am hoping that result will give him a bit of confidence and I’m convinced there is a nice race in him. 

I would like to give a special shoutout to Bushmans Pass for Oliver McKiernan - who might line up in the feature Troytown Handicap. The horse did me some wonderful turns last year, and should there be rain around I would be keen to see how he could rate in a race like this. Personally, I feel the ground might be a little bit too lively and he might be one to revisit come the Thyestes in the depths of winter. (ANDREW)

I’ve got two to watch at Navan. First up is Tumuch, who’s set to make his hurdling debut in the opener at Navan on Saturday. The team at Cullentra are high on him and believe he has plenty of potential. 

The second is Qualimita, another hurdling debutant, again for Gordon Elliott. She ran once in a Listed bumper last season for her current connections, and has come on leaps and bounds physically over the summer. If she lines up in the 12.10 at Navan on Sunday, she’s expected to run a big race. 

Also keep an eye on Wendrock in the opening juvenile contest.  (JOSH)