Who's hot and who's not in the Paddy Power Gold Cup?

There have been two recurring topics during the early weeks of the core Jumps season: the dry weather and Paul Nicholls’s horses needing their comeback runs more than we have been accustomed to. 

Dan Skelton ran a horse called Let It Rain at Chepstow recently, but it didn’t do the trick and consequently the word “good” continues to dominate going descriptions. It also means watering is on the cards for The November Meeting. 

Meanwhile, Nicholls had an aggregate of seven winners on Friday and Saturday, to dampen talk of swerving his reappearance runners. I heard several racing pundits refer to him now being a “hot” trainer, but I’m not sure it is that straightforward and I shall still be treading cautiously with Ditcheat runners returning from an absence. 

Keep in mind he had four winners from 43 runners in September and October. His tallies for those months over the previous four years had been 15/54; 19/56; 22/88 and 31/109. 

Those seven weekend winners included just one horse who was making a return after an absence in the shape of the well-handicapped Larchmont Lass.  The other six consisted of a walkover, four horses who’d had at least one run already this campaign, plus a well-fancied bumper debutant scrambling home against three rivals. 

The SPs of his winners were 2-9, 1-4, 11-10, 11-8, 11-4, and 9-2, so they had all been found good opportunities. 

Over the same two days, Captain Bellamy, Sans Bruit, Mofasa, Outlaw Peter, Centara and Super Saint made their seasonal reappearances for Nicholls and none came close to winning, with several running poorly. 

Of course, the ups and down of other trainers comes under far less scrutiny, but this is a time of the year when the Nicholls team is usually running like clockwork. And he does give us something else to talk about other than the unseasonably dry weather. 

Nicholls plans to have two runners in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday with Ginny’s Destiny, the ante-post favourite, having his first run since April. His other challenger, Il Ridoto, has already had a (below-par) spin this term ahead of trying to make it third time lucky in the race. 

I’ve divided the 17 runners up into four weather-related sections: Hot, Warm, Cold and Freezing.  

Why is the best horse in the race, Protektorat, available at 14-1? It makes no sense, and I can only assume that traders remain convinced that Dan Skelton will get cold feet about asking the highest-rated horse in his yard to try and give lumps of weight away on ground unlikely to have much (any?) soft in it. But Skelton is showing no signs of wobbling, and the more I think about it, the more his plan makes sense. 

This is a horse who can be electric when fresh, as he showed when routing the opposition on his return in the Betfair Chase a couple of years ago, and he’s clearly a more complete model than when a fast-finishing runner-up in this race in 2021, albeit he will need to be as he’s 12lb higher in the ratings. 

Skelton has had two attempts at winning a Gold Cup with him – third in 2022 and fifth a year later – but he’s not an out-and-out stayer, with the switch to last season’s Ryanair Chase showing him in a much better light. I rewatched it again the other night and he was awesome in dispatching a high-class field. 

That’s reflected by him having to concede 12lb and upwards on Saturday, but his presence means half of his potential 16 rivals will be languishing out of the handicap. And those eight running off their correct marks include several with question marks hanging over them, plus there will be a lot of jockeys struggling to comfortably do 10st 2lb. 

Had the ground been testing, then humping 12st and giving away chunks of weight would have been a tall order for Protektorat. But that’s not going to be the case and must tilt things in favour of the undisputed class act in the line-up. Five horses this century have carried 11st 7lb or more to victory, so big weights need not being an anchor. 

The only other horse I’m included in the Hot section is Imagine (6-1). Formerly trained by Gordon Elliott, he will be having his first start for Harry Derham, having been snapped up for 320,000gns at the Andy and Gemma Brown dispersal sale in February. 

This race has been ringed in his calendar for a while and he has the profile of a typical winner, being an unexposed second-season chaser who probably has a few pounds tucked up his sleeve in terms of handicapping. In addition, he’s won first time out in each of his three seasons. 

Imagine wasn’t beaten far in the 2023 Martin Pipe, won by Iroko, and looked a natural over fences when beating Inothewayurthinkin and Pinkerton on his chasing bow at Fairyhouse this time a year ago. 

The runner-up ended the season winning in Grade One company and has an official rating of 158, while Galway Plate winner Pinkerton now has a perch of 147. Imagine is on 145, even though he followed up that initial victory in a Grade Two event at Punchestown. 

Imagine was clearly off-colour when disappointing back at that track in mid-January and missed the rest of the campaign, but there’s nothing to suggest he will not resume his progress for a young trainer quickly make his mark. 

Ginny’s Destiny (3-1) heads the market and his profile is not dissimilar to his stablemate Stage Star, who was a commanding winner 12 months ago. Ginny’s Destiny is a superb jumper with an excellent track record who developed into one of last season’s top novices, but he’s now 8lb higher than when last in a handicap (he was being closed down late on that day) and his record fresh is a niggle, given he has been beaten first time out in each of his three previous three campaigns. And, of course, we must factor in that many of the Nicholls horses are needing their reappearance runs. 

Il Ridoto (7-1) also represents Nicholls and he has run creditably in the past two renewals. He was below-par on his return at Chepstow last month, but he may well take a big jump forward and he’s slipped in the ratings, for all that he is out of the handicap. That is offset by Freddie Gingell taking 3lb off his back. 

Ga Law (9-1) performed wonders to win a couple of years ago and seeks to regain his crown after a fine second on his comeback run at Chepstow. He seems well served by good ground and much could hinge on his jumping, as he seems to blow hot and cold in that department. 

In Excelsis Deo (10-1) needs to brush up his jumping but that didn’t stop him running well in each of his four races at Cheltenham last season, with a victory on the New Course being achieved in April. He subsequently ran miserably in first-time cheekpieces at Galway and it will be no surprise if the headgear is ditched. 

Lets Go Champ (10-1) and Hartur D’Arc (20-1) represent powerful Irish yards who have already made their mark at Cheltenham this season. The former was having only his fifth start over fences when a creditable sixth in the Galway Plate last time, while the latter landed the Leinster National on what was only his second start for Gavin Cromwell last season, before being well held in the Irish Grand National. I wouldn’t be in a hurry to label him as a stayer, and it could be he is more comfortable over this sort of trip. 

I’m also including Weveallbeencaught (20-1) in this section, even though he’s set to race from 10lb out of the handicap. This hulk of a horse has yet to fulfil his early potential, but he’s not been with Christian Williams for long and again hinted he had better days ahead when runner-up at the Showcase meeting last month. I’m sure he will rise up the ratings this winter, and he would be straight into the “Hot” section if Protektorat is pulled out before the final declarations are made. 

I feel a bit guilty in putting Fugitif (14-1)in here because he’s a gorgeous big beast who snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the December Gold Cup last season, having run well at Cheltenham numerous times before. However, his record first-time-out is not compelling and he ended last term badly out of sorts. 

Straw Fan Jack (25-1) ran a cracker at the Festival but that was something of a one-off and he’s 6lb wrong at the weights. Madara (33-1) had a fine time last season, but connections cannot seem to decide who they want training him and he looks a two-miler. Jetoile (25-1) ran a stinker at Chepstow last month, while Kotmask (40-1) has a mountain to climb from 11lb out of the handicap, for all that he ran a solid race on his return at Ascot. 

Janidil (25-1) could represent Willie Mullins but he’s rising 11, thoroughly exposed and difficult to place these days. Editeur Du Gite (33-1) has been in the doldrums for much of the past year and looks a doubtful stayer, while Gemirande (40-1) will be 13lb out of the handicap if Protektorat stands his ground. This race revolves all around him.