Nic Doggett takes a detailed look at all ten runners entered for Saturday's Group One showpiece at Ascot and fancies a mare to run a career-best.
1 BAY CITY ROLLER
New Bay – Bloomfield (Teofilo)
Trainer: George Scott. Best Odds: 33-1 .
Only out the first two on two of his 13 career starts, both when faced with an inadequate test of stamina.
Fine second (under a penalty) to Lambourn around the tight turns of the Roodee on his reappearance, before taking another step forward when second to Almaqam in the Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh. Duly took advantage of a race that fell apart when storming 10 lengths clear on desperate ground in the Coolmore Cup at Epsom last month.
Has previously been pulled out when the going was deemed too quick, so there must be some legitimate concerns about this quick ground, but clearly improving as a four-year-old and shouldn't be dismissed too readily if taking his place.
Might be better off backing him for the Arc, mind you, and hoping for some rain later in the season.
Watch: Bay City Roller stormed clear at Epsom in the Coronation Cup
2 CALANDAGAN
Gleneagles – Calayana (Sinndar)
Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard. Best Odds: 13-8.
Highest-rated horse in Europe who dispelled concerns about his will to win (that were far from quashed when second to Jan Brueghel in last year's Coronation Cup) when landing his next five starts in scintillating fashion.
One of those was this race, where he comfortably dispatched Kalpana, though ran at least as well when becoming the first overseas winner of the Japan Cup – beating Masquerade Ball by a head - on his next start, and when beating Ombudsman in the Champion Stakes back here in October.
No-show behind Bay City Roller in this year's Coronation Cup, but should never have run that day, and soon back to winning ways in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud earlier this month, though not as impressive as when using the race as a warmup for this a year earlier.
Clearly the one to beat in a race that has been the target for many months, but certainly more question marks than for a while.
Michael Barzalona and Calandagan won this race 12 months ago
3 GOLIATH
Adlerflug – Gouache (Shamardal)
Trainer: Francis-Henri Graffard. Best Odds: 9-1.
Took his form to new heights when travelling well and quickening clear of subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking in this race in 2024.
Struggled to match those heights the following season, not defending his crown here after an abject performance in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, though did sign off with a running-on third in the Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin in December.
Solid series of efforts so far this season, though hard to be confident about whether he would have improved on his third position in the Hardwicke Stakes over C&D last month with jockey Christophe Soumillon losing his irons when coming with a challenge a furlong out.
Acts on any ground, and this likely the plan for some time, but his best is probably half a notch below that of his stablemate.
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4 LAMBOURN
Australia – Gossamer Wings (Scat Daddy)
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Best Odds: 100-1.
Dual Derby winner last year who failed to stay the longer trip of the St Leger but looked set for a good season when fending off Bay City Roller in the Huxley Stakes at Chester on his reappearance in May.
Has failed to fire in three subsequent starts, however, being employed as the latest Ballydoyle pacemaker on the last two occasions. Similar duties likely here.
5 MASQUERADE BALL
Duramente – Mask Off (Deep Impact)
Trainer: Takahisa Tezuka. Best Odds: 4-1.
Steady record of improvement last season, finishing third in the Japanese 2000 Guineas over ten furlongs and then second to Croix Du Nord in the Japanese Derby.
Improved again when landing the Tenno Sho in November, and then turned the tables round emphatically with Croix Du Nord in the Japan Cup later that month, though just unable to best Calandagan late on. Worth noting that he had a wide draw that day, and the winner got a slightly smoother run through when first launching his challenge.
Split superstar Romantic Warrior and Sosie (who had earlier beaten Giavellotto and Goliath in the Hong Kong Vase) in the QEII Cup in April on his sole start as a four-year-old.
Not seen on the racecourse since, but connections report him to be in rude health of this assignment, with Wurttemberg accompanying this tricky traveller.
Fast ground suits and looks sure to run a very big race.
Watch: Masquerade Ball won the 2025 Tenno Sho
6 WURTTEMBERG
Kitasan Black – Maruka Aichan (French Deputy)
Trainer: Hiroshi Miyamoto. Best Odds: 50-1.
Low expectations given he appears well out of his depth, though did storm home from off the pace to share a photograph with Croix Du Nord in a two-mile Grade Two at Kyoto in May.
Will have done his job if he can keep Masquerade Ball relaxed in the lead up to the race.
Watch: Kalpana successfully defended her Fillies & Mares crown last season
7 KALPANA
Study Of Man – Zero Gravity (Dansili)
Trainer: Andrew Balding. Best Odds: 8-1.
Progressed gradually at three, culminating in a win in the Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes on her first attempt at the top level.
That not a vintage renewal, but continued her progress with run of placed efforts the following season, including a length second to Calandagan in this race. Signed off that campaign with successful defence of her Fillies & Mares crown (form franked since by Estrange).
Consistency again to the fore in two starts this year, following gritty Group Three win at Newbury with short-head defeat by Giavellotto over C&D last month, never far from the lead and battling gamely throughout the latter stages.
Big player here, especially if able to get first run on some of the more fancied hold-up horses.
8 MINNIE HAUK
Frankel – Multilingual (Dansili)
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Best Odds: 7-1.
Terrific mare who picked up four Oaks last season, arguably most impressive when seeing off Estrange by three and a half lengths in the Yorkshire version in August.
At least as good when tackling the boys for the first time in the Arc, going down by just a head to Daryz, and looked a race too far when held at the Breeders' Cup the following month.
Quite hard work on her reappearance over 10 furlongs at the Curragh in May, but put a poor run in the Tattersalls Gold Cup behind her when four lengths second to Ombudsman in the Prince Of Wales's Stakes here last month.
Return to a mile and half here in her favour, and this appears to have been part of a long-term plan that will again build towards the Arc, so expect a season-best effort.
Watch: Minnie Hauk wowed with her win in the Yorkshire Oaks last term
9 ACTION
Frankel – Gossamer Wings (Scat Daddy)
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien. Best Odds: 150-1.
Younger sibling of Lambourn who looked set for a strong assault on the Classics after a promising two-year-old campaign (placed in Royal Lodge and Futurity Trophy), but doesn't appear to have trained on judging by four efforts this season.
Even a repeat of his second to Item in the Dante wouldn't get him near the places, and another role as pacemaker – as he did in the Irish Derby after fluffing the start – looks most likely.
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10 BENVENUTO CELLINI
Frankel – Newspaperofrecord (Lope De Vega)
T: Aidan O'Brien. Best Odds: 3-1.
One place behind Action in the Futurity, but has surged past him this season, impressive when winning a modest renewal of the Chester Vase on reappearance and sent off fabourite for the Derby on the back of it.
Disappointing experience there (controversially ruled a non-runner after getting slightly stuck in the stalls and then finishing down the field), but quickly put that behind him when well-backed and surging past English Derby-winning stablemate Christmas Day in the Irish equivalent last month.
Connections bullish in the build up to this race, and market agrees, so looks likely to take another step forward here.
Watch: Nick Luck, Jane Mangan and George Baker discuss the decion to rule Benvenuto Cellini a non-runner
Verdict
Galileo was the last Aidan O'Brien-trained three-year-old to win this, and in general the three-year-olds that have won it since (Alamshar in 2003, Nathaniel in 2011, Taghrooda in 2014, Enable in 2017 and Adayar in 2021) have tended to be superstars.
While this is the sort of statement that can come back to bite you, I don't get that feeling about Benvenuto Cellini, so I'm happy to take him on now he tackles some pretty special older horses.
The obvious one is last year's victor Calandagan, but there's now an air of fallibility about him once more, and I think there's quite a good chance that this race could prove tactical despite the presence of the Ballydoyle pacemakers. He overcame it last year, but can he do it again?
Masquerade Ball is respected, along with Goliath, but both tend to be held up and it would be no surprise if the mares Minnie Hauk and Kalpana were ridden more prominently and able to get first run as a result.
It's hard to split the pair, but marginal preference is for 8-1 chance KALPANA who ran a stormer here in the Hardwicke, and she looks a better, stronger mare than when a length behind Calandagan in last year's renewal.
The leading British contender appears definite to run, whilst there are still some question marks over Minnie Hauk's participation, with the Yorkshire Oaks an alternative.