Juvenile Watch: Ebor Festival tips and analysis

York is a track I’m yet to visit, so maybe next year. Regardless, the Ebor Festival is always one I look forward to with plenty of good races for the juveniles and this week is no exception. 

Selection: Wimbledon Hawkeye (e/w)

The winner of this will surely be catapulted to the top of the market for next year's Betfred 2000 Guineas. 

The Lion In Winter did some good late work when making a winning debut over this trip at the Curragh last month. He was babyish through the middleof the race and required cajoling along but soon got the message. Sent off at 11-2 as the apparent Ballydoyle second string with Ryan Moore aboard favourite Ides Of March, it’s clear connections expected him to improve for this initial racecourse experience. Provided he’s able to travel more sweetly into the race this time he will provide stiff opposition. 

Another to make a winning debut - though in much more impressive fashion - was the Charlie Appleby-trained Ruling Court, a €2.3m Arqana breeze-up purchase who put that grounding to good use at Sandown Park, travelling all over his rivals before quickening up beautifully down the outside to pull well clear over this trip. Unlike The Lion In Winter, there are no concerns about his ability to travel through the race. I nominated him last week as an ante-post selection for the 2000 Guineas and I fully expect him to win this, though I don’t feel compelled to take the 11/10 here. 

I think the each-way market holds plenty of appeal, with the market currently 18/1 bar the top two, and with eleven declared virtually guaranteeing that at least eight will head to post. 

Mr Chaplin is naturally on my radar having won nicely for this column at generous odds at Goodwood, scoring despite trouble in running. That was a nursery but this looks far deeper, and for he’ll run a solid race I’m not sure he’s quite good enough. 

Diablo Rojo might be the top-class juvenile that Amo Racing have been lacking so far this term. He made an eye-catching debut at Redcar when drawing clear late on oversix furlongs and he should cope with the pace here over seven, but the form of his win is hard to measure. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the shake-up, but he can’t be considered a selection. 

I felt that the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket was a solid Group Three and the winner Ancient Truth would be close to favourite in this line-up. Wimbledon Hawkeye was outpaced when appearing to not handle the track as the field quickened but, once getting organised, finished in eye-catching style to grab third. That was his first race on turf acter a debut win at Kempton Park, and I felt Silvestre De Sousa was patient with him when he became unbalanced. He could take a big-step forward (though I expect him to improve again when stepping up to a mile) and at a double-figure price he’s an attractive each-way option.

Selection: Sex On Fire 

After his debut win back in March, it’s surprising that Sex On Fire is yet to add another success in four further starts though he has run some sound races. 

He was beaten just under two lengths on his second start over five furlongs to now 86-rated Enchanting Empress before taking a big step forward when tackling six furlongs for the first time on handicap debut at Haydoc Park, beaten just a neck when trying to concede 5lb to the now 96-rated Regal Gem. That horse subsequently posted a highly creditable effort when beaten just three lengths in the Group Three Phoenix Stakes. 

Sex On Fire’s latest start came when a luckless seventh in a nursery at Goodwood, finding trouble in running and he would have been much closer for that. He wasn’t knocked about by Jamie Spencer when his chance had gone and gave the notion that he was a winner in waiting off this unchanged mark of 88 for a trainer with a decent crop of juveniles this season.

Selections: Leovanni; Betty Clover (e/w)

The market seems to have this down as face-off between Heavens Gate and Queen Mary winner Leovanni. 

Heavens Gate got back to winning ways last time in a valuable auction race at Naas, but she was heavily favoured by the conditions of that contest  and personally I was a little underwhelmed by her workmanlike victory by just over a length from a rival rated a stone inferior.  It’s further concerning that she missed an intended engagement in the Phoenix Stakes due to being off her food and, at a best-priced 9/4, I have little trouble in passing her over. 

Leovanni was impressive at Royal Ascot when she shot clear some way out in the Queen Mary and won eased down. Alone in front on the far side, the winning margin of just under two lengths doesn’t accurately reflect her superiority given the second and third raced together up the stands-side rail, away from her. 

The form has taken some knocks with both runner-up Mighty Eriu and third Maw Lam being well beaten in the Group Two Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes. However, fourth Miss Lamai did win impressively at Listed level on her next start. Leovanni’s pedigree matches the visual impression she gave over the stiff five furlongs at Ascot that this extra furlong will hold no issue for her and I’m surprised she’s not shorter than 9/4. She’s my win selection. 

As well as Leovanni, I also want to back Betty Clover each-way at what I consider marginally insulting odds of 12/1. She was only narrowly touched off in the Group Three Princess Margaret Stakes over this trip at Ascot last time and the winner, Simmering, has since bolted up in a French Group Two at Deauville. If she were in this line-up, she’d be vying for favouritism.

Betty Clover already has a course win to her name - when defeating Miss Lamai in a five-furlong Listed contest - and will have no issue with the forecast fast ground. I can only conclude that it’s her marginally unheralded, though excellent trainer - and her more unheralded jockey - that sees this talented daughter of Time Test priced up at such generous odds at a track where her trainer does exceptionally well. 

Selection: An Outlaw’s Grace 

The favourite Maw Lam is well favoured by the conditions of this race given her sole win came in a the Class 4 company, meaning that she escapes any form of penalty. She’s run some great races in defeat, most notably when a staying-on third in the Queen Mary, though in this large field her tendency to start slowly is a disadvantage and I’m yet to be convinced this trip of six furlongs is what she wants for all that she is a strong stayer over five. Despite her appealing weight I want to oppose her. 

Arizona Blaze backs up relatively quickly after finishing exceptionally tired when third in the Phoenix Stakes last Saturday. Of course he could bounce back in the same manner as runner-up Whistlejacket did, but that’s far from certain and his 7lb penalty will make life tough. 

An Outlaw’s Grace carries just a 3lb penalty and has plenty of scope for progress on just his fourth start. He didn’t enjoy the smoothest passage in the early stages of the Vintage Stakes last time and additionally he completely failed to handle the bend. In the circumstances, it was a fair run in that grade to eventually only be beaten six lengths. 

A return to a straight six furlongs and a strong gallop over the trip could provide him with ideal conditions and Ryan Moore is a notable jockey booking for a yard that has won this an incredible six times in the last ten years.      

Selection: Big Mojo 

I think this race centres around the two with form from Glorious Goodwood; The Strikin Viking who was only narrowly defeated in the Richmond Stakes and Big Mojo who shed his maiden tag in impressive style when winning the Molecomb Stakes. 

There can be no doubt the experience lies with the Wathnan Racing-owned The Strikin Viking. He won impressively over course and distance on his racecourse debut in June before acquitting himself well when pitched into the Railway Stakes at the Curragh where he finished second, only finding the undefeated and highly regarded Henri Matisse too good.

He has been kept quite busy, this will be his fourth run in just nine weeks and amongst that he has switched yards, so at some point his form might tail off, but in truth he has very few negatives. 

My selection Big Mojo captured my imagination when winning at Goodwood. Being slowly away over f5f at Goodwood is never a help so the fact that he was able to overcome a tardy start and win, in my mind, a touch snuggly marks him up as a very smart horse.

He looked green when getting to the front and hung to his left but what struck me most was that it took his jockey, Silvestre De Sousa an age to pull him up.

I’m a big fan of his sire, Mohaather and his pedigree strongly suggests that this step up to six-furlongs can see him improve further. He will need to be sharper in leaving the stalls but a draw in stall two does at least mean he’s unlikely hang left with a rail to aid him. He can land this and prove himself a top-class prospect. 

Selection: Shah ew 

Year on year this is a competitive maiden, with this year’s edition looking suitably competitive. If you only watch back one juvenile race from York this should be it and be sure to make good use of your Racing TV tracker, as it’s a race that throws up plenty of future winners. 

I’ll be having a small bet on the George Boughey trained Shah at a decent double-figure price.

He’s a beautifully bred son of Sea The Stars out of the Group Three winner Shahah and went into my tracker after making an eye-catching debut at Leicester when finishing second.

He was slowly away but travelled much the best inside the final furlong before taking a while to find his stride when caught on heels as he was asked to quicken. He finished to great effect and it’s noteworthy that the winner Matauri Bay is well regarded by his connections. 

In a deep race I’d expect him to go close at fair odds.  

Whistlejacket showed admirable toughness to land this just eight days after appearing to have a hard race when finishing second in the Phoenix Stakes. In truth he is a horse that confuses me, and there is no point in pretending otherwise. He clearly has plenty of ability and speed but I’m still not fully convinced about his attitude. 

At Deauville he certainly benefitted from an uncontested lead and having a rail to race against, yet when initially coming under pressure there can be no denying his head carriage is higher than you’d like to see. Closer to the line, it looked more professional. It could be that he’s still green, though this was his sixth race - if he hasn’t learned now, when will he? |

My continued belief is that Whistlejacket will only thrive when given a similar race set-up as he was given in France. Having initially been a big fan of him, he’s a horse I will look to oppose back in Group races this autumn, certainly in the UK or Ireland where a strong pace in juvenile races is more often than not the order of the day.