Juvenile Watch: who will be the leading first-season sire?

Juvenile Watch returns for its fifth season, and the aim of this column is to strive to deliver a comprehensive overview of the class of 2025. 

To kick off the new season, I have taken a look at the key players in the all important race to be leading first-season sire. Check out my column every week on racingtv.com where I will be sharing my views and analysis plus regular tips on the Juveniles. Enjoy!

Odds: 1-2 with Paddy Power.

Trained by Ed Walker, he wasn’t seen on the track until he was three, but quickly developed into a smart sprinter, winning his first three starts. The third of those wins came in the Listed Garrowby Stakes at York where he showed a smart turn of foot to win going away. A first tilt at Group One level followed in the British Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot, but he failed to shine on the soft ground there.

Returning to the track the following year, he made a successful seasonal debut over six furlongs in the Group Two Duke Of York Stakes before bettering that effort with a dominant performance at Newmarket to win the Group One July Cup. He retired to stud at the end of his four-year old season as the highest-rated European sprinter.

He now stands at Tally-Ho Stud in Mullingar, and this is of real importance as, over the years, this stud has launched the careers of many sprint stallions, most notably Kodiac. To succeed at stud, a stallion needs access to quality mares, and in good number. On that front, Starman has been given every chance.

The early signs from his runners are good, with two winners already on the board, including Lady Iman who got him off to the best possible start when winning at Dundalk. Green Sense, another filly, added to his total when creating a good impression with victory at the Curragh this month.

His current odds of 1-2 make little appeal at this point of the season, even though the production of early winners largely negates the concern over his own lack of a juvenile career. 

Odds: 7-2 with Paddy Power.

A fast and precocious son of the top-class sire Mehmas, he was trained by Clive Cox for his short but fruitful career. 

A moderate debut at Windsor in June was quickly improved upon when back at the same track where he shed his maiden tag. An impressive front-running performance followed in the Group Two Richmond Stakes at Goodwood where he demonstrated electric early pace under Adam Kirby. He finished his season with a smooth win when upped to the highest level in the Middle Park at Newmarket where he again made all the running before showing tenacity and stamina to fend off a host of challengers.

He patently failed to train on as a three-year-old, beating a combined total of just five runners home in his three starts that year.

While this isn’t an obvious positive, it is far from being a negative. Indeed, Mehmas himself didn’t even run as a three-year old, yet that proved no barrier to him being crowned Champion First-Season Sire.

Like Starman, Supremacy now finds himself at an excellent stud in Yeomanstown, a stud synonymous with the excellent Dark Angel.

Off an opening covering fee of €12,500, he had a number of six-figure yearlings in 2024, which strongly suggests buyers liked what they saw.

After just a handful of runners, he’s already landed his first winner when Anthelia made a winning debut at Bath for Rod Millman.

His price of 7-2 makes vastly more appeal than that of Starman, especially given the presence of Harry Angel (sire of 25 winners in his debut season) in his immediate family. 

Odds: 8-1 with Paddy Power.

In contrast to both Starman and Supremacy, the Charlie Appleby-trained Space Blues enjoyed a longer career on the track; winning eleven of his nineteen starts over three seasons.

He couldn’t though be described as precocious as his winning debut as a juvenile came in early November over an extended mile at Nottingham.

A seasonal debut as a three-year old over ten furlongs suggested connections viewed him as a middle-distance horse, though, yet it was when he dropped back in trip to seven furlongs at York for his third start that his talent started to show.

He progressed well as a three-year old gaining wins at both Listed and Group Three level before running a career best behind Too Darn Hot in the Prix Jean Prat at Deauville. He returned to the same track a year later to bag a Group One when flying home late over an extended six furlongs to land the Prix Maurice de Gheest. A stint globe-trotting followed in his final season during which he added a further two Group One wins to his CV.

He’s already on the board as a sire thanks to the win of Power Blue at the Curragh last month but, given his own slow burn as a racehorse, it’s hard to envisage he’ll produce enough early winners to give a feasible chance of landing the first-season sire title, so his price makes no appeal. However, of those mentioned so far, I’d consider him the most likely to produce a Group performer, particularly in the second half of the season.

Odds: 10-1 with Paddy Power.

Like Space Blues, the Aidan O’Brien-trained St Mark's Basilica was not an instant success on the track, only shedding his maiden tag at the third attempt, though the fact he was tried in a Group One on his second start as a maiden hinted towards the ability he possessed.

His final start of his juvenile campaign came in the Group One Dewhurst at Newmarket where, on soft ground, he did some strong late work to win drawing away.

His three-year old career saw him really find his stride as he won a perfect four from four, all in Group One contests, the most impressive of which was in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown where he easily accounted for a useful looking field.

His yearlings were well regarded at the sales with a top price of £1.7m. His profile doesn’t point to getting early winners, and he’s yet to have his first racecourse representative, but at this week's Craven Breeze-up sales, two of his progeny sold for £750,000 and £320,000. This does point to them being forward enough.

It is also highly significant that a number of his offspring will be trained by Aidan O’Brien. He’s never afraid to give a juvenile a busy season, which means if St Mark’s Basilica can produce some smart stock, the wins might soon add up.

Given the quality he brings both in terms of his own performance and the calibre of mare he’s been given access to, I can see value in his odds of 10-1.

First-season sire, Palace Pier, was a top-class racehorse, and a winner of six Group One races over a mile. A gorgeous looking son of Kingman with an athletic walk, I have to profess to being disappointed with the (admittedly small number) of his yearlings that I saw, with a number of them not appearing to have inherited his athletic swing.

I was therefore interested to note that of the three Palace Pier progeny offered at this week's breeze-up sales, only two found a buyer, and both at a lower price than was paid for them as yearlings. It’s early days, and this is far too small a sample size to draw any conclusions, but it is a story I’ll follow with interest.

Military Code made a winning debut in the five-furlong maiden on the Thursday of Newmarket’s Craven meeting. By Wootton Bassett out of Wishfully, this trip looked, on pedigree, to be on the sharp side. The fact he was able to win suggests he could well be above average, particularly when stepping up in trip to six furlongs. The Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot must surely be a possibility now. 

I will, though, reserve judgement for now. Firstly, he may have been flattered by bagging the stands' rail and secondly, he showed a degree of temperament when momentarily losing his cool in the loading process. 

His next start will tell us plenty, and to that end he’s worthy of adding to your Racing TV tracker.