An early 16-1 tip for the Irish Grand National

Forty-nine horses remain in the mix for the BoyleSports Irish at on Monday after today’s confirmation stage but the one who stands out from the crowd is Kinturk Kalanisi.

The seven-year-old novice is a general 16-1 to give Tom Gibney a third triumph in the race since 2012 and that looks chunky, given that he’s on a favourable mark, seems impervious to ground conditions and is open to further improvement up in trip at a track where he has twice gone close in the past.

Kinturk Kalanisi has apparently had this race on his agenda since running well in a long-distance handicap hurdle at a year ago, and each of his four runs over fences this term seem to have been building blocks.

He was cantering when unseating his rider (a 7lb conditional) two out in the Leinster National at Naas last time and would surely have taken plenty of stopping but for his mishap.

The silver lining is that he will race off the same mark of 135 on Monday and to my mind looks a big-race winner without a penalty. It’s also worth noting that Gibney only ran him in that contest because he believed he would need to climb the ratings to ensure making the cut for the Irish National, which has proved unfounded.

Kinturk Kalanisi had previously chased home Three Card Brag in a hot 3m beginners’ chase at Navan when the next three home were Captain Cody, and Loughglynn.

The winner subsequently ran well behind Better Days Ahead and Stellar Story at Navan (that pair were then placed in the Brown Advisory next time) before not getting home in the Grand National off a rating of 146, while Captain Cody was a snug winner of the Scottish Grand National last Saturday and is now rated 150.

Now Is The Hour would have since finished second, at worse, to Haiti Couleurs in the National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, off a mark of 139, had he not fallen two out, while Loughglynn bustled up High Class Hero at Punchstown next time.

Everything points to Kinturk Kalanisi being well-handicapped off a mark of 135 and he’s hinted more than once that he could have even more to offer once his stamina is fully examined.

His jumping has been sound, if unspectacular, and he did little wrong in that department when being touched off over fences at Fairyhouse in December, having previously bumped into Grade One performer Better Days Ahead on his chasing bow.

The bay’s connections could always pop some first-time cheekpieces on him if he felt his lapse at Naas was down to a lapse in focus.

He will get a 19lb pull with Better Days Ahead should he stand his ground and carry top weight. On that point, keep in mind that no horse has carried more than 11st 4lb to victory in the Irish National since Flashing Streel in 1995.

Gibney has had only three winners since Intense Raffles – who was also a novice - gave him a second Irish National victory 12 months ago (and he is 0-40 this year) but plenty of his Trim team have been running creditably and his Fairyhouse challengers always demand a second look, with 58 of his 207 runners at the track finishing in the first three.

Haiti Colouers heads the market at 6-1 and commands respect, although he’s 6lb higher than when scoring at Cheltenham and he was trained to the minute for that day. He’s going to need even more here and has previously done most of his racing left-handed.

Now Is The Hour might have beaten Haiti Colouers had he stood up at Cheltenham and is 4lb better off into the bargain. I’d make this general 10-1 chance the biggest danger, but Kinturk Kalanisi finished ahead of him when they met at Navan and is 6lb better off, not to mention a bigger price. 

Ante-post advice: back Kinturk Kalanisi now at 16-1 with Cotal, Ladbrokes and BetMGM.