Juvenile Watch: Truth makes appeal at 50-1 for 2022 Derby

Finally, he got the job done! Ebro River justified my high opinion of him and put it all together to win the Group One Keeneland Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday.

Regular readers of this column will know I have been a big fan since his debut run, so it may provide some amusement – it certainly did amongst my friends – for you to learn I did not have a penny on! Such is life!

He was given an excellent and uncomplicated ride by Shane Foley, who had him prominent throughout, and while with two furlongs to run he looked to be a sitting duck, he found plenty in the closing stages and was arguably going further clear at the line.

Hugo Palmer admitted after the race that perhaps they had been getting the tactics wrong in previous races. I also think that ground on the slower side of good sees him to best effect.

On this performance, he looks capable of staying further and may well go onto better things.

He is certainly a standout performer for his first season sire, Galileo Gold, who stands at Tally Ho Stud and they are, incidentally, also the breeders of Ebro River.

We are now well into the flat season, so this week I thought I would put together a brief half-term report. Enjoy!

There possibly isn’t one standout performer in the ranks from those that we have been seen so far. Indeed, when looking at the Timeform ratings, only two from the top 15 rated are unbeaten.

Point Lonsdale is unbeaten in three runs and while that is not to be dismissed lightly, he does not really get me excited.

He was an easy winner of a Curragh maiden, but only one other winner has come out of that race. His win in the Chesham came on desperate ground where I believe many of the opposition simply didn’t handle the conditions, which were closer to heavy than soft.

On his latest start, he won a Group Three at Leopardstown by three lengths, which on the face of it seems impressive, but I am not so sure given that Unconquerable, who finished six lengths back in third, was about the same distance adrift in the maiden Point Lonsdale won.

He certainly has a great attitude to his racing, but I would be disappointed if he was the best Coolmore had to offer.

The other unbeaten colt is Native Trail. He was a wide margin winner in impressive fashion on his debut and then stepped up to win the Group Two Superlative Stakes on just his second start.

He is certainly a smart performer, but I would certainly rate Masekela the runner-up in that race, above him.

Berkshire Shadow has only been given a Timeform rating of 105, but he is certainly top of my pile. He also beat Ebro River quite convincingly when successful at Ascot.

Andrew Balding outlined plans for him this week suggesting he could be aimed at the Gimcrack at York before finishing his season in either the Middle Park, or the Dewhurst.

It was also heartening to hear him suggest that the ground was to blame for a sub-par performance at Goodwood last time out.

I think the market over-reacted to that Goodwood run and he is now a best-priced 33-1 for next year’s QIPCO 2000 Guineas. He is my first ante-post bet for the 2022 Classics.

Lusail and Armor are both owned by Al Shaqab Racing, and both are in the care of Richard Hannon.

Lusail has proved to be versatile so far as he won a Newmarket novice over seven furlongs before coping with the drop back in trip to six furlongs when narrowly winning the Group Two July Stakes. The form of that race has been well franked with both the runner-up, Asymmetric, and the fourth, Ebro River winning since.

I expect his future to lie over further and he is well capable of improving again.

Armor surprised me by having enough speed to win the Molecomb Stakes and his pedigree certainly suggests that he would have the stamina for at least a mile but, given that connections have persisted with just 5f, it would suggest that they see him as a speedier type. I already have him pencilled in for next years Commonwealth Cup.

Godolphin have unveiled a number of smart colts this year. New Science put a disappointing run in the Chesham (where he got stuck in the mud) behind him to win a useful 7f Listed contest at Ascot and the horse he beat there, Angel Bleu franked the form only three days later when winning the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood.

Charlie Appleby also trains Noble Truth, and he looks the most exciting of the Godolphin colts.

He has pulled far too hard in both his races, including on debut when finishing third at Newmarket behind Lusail and then at the same track on his next start when he remarkably still had enough in reserve to bolt clear to score.

Both the second, Ehraz and the fifth, Sweeping have been wide-margin winners since.

He is doing plenty wrong in his races and will need to develop a more professional attitude, but Charlie Appleby has few equals at managing temperament and he’s certainly in the right hands.

Noble Truth has a middle-distance pedigree being by Kingman out of the unraced Frankel mare, Speralita, who is a sister to a French Group One winner.

At a best-priced 50-1 for the 2022 Cazoo Derby at Epsom, he is my second ante-post bet.

This division is possibly lacking some strength in depth. Quick Suzy was a smart winner of the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot but hasn’t been seen since. I would imagine it’s likely she is having a mid-season break before having one run prior to the Cheveley Park Stakes, or something similar.

The form of her Ascot win has taken a couple of knocks with both the third, Cheerupsleepyjean, and the fifth, Vertiginous being beaten when short-priced favourites on their next starts.

However, the runner-up Twilight Gleaming did win at listed level on her next start.

A mention must be given to Hermana Estrella, the only filly to beat Quick Suzy so far. She hasn’t been seen since making a winning debut at Group Three level, but she holds an entry in the Lowther Stakes at York. She will have to prove that soft ground isn’t essential for her there, but she is certainly a filly of great promise.

Sandrine is unbeaten in three starts and has shown great adaptability having shown good speed to win on good to firm ground over six furlongs, as well as supreme stamina to win on heavy ground over the same trip.

Andrew Balding said the target is the Lowther before heading to the Cheveley Park. I would be very confident that, no matter how good she looks over six furlongs, she will be even better over seven.

The final filly on my radar is Inspiral, a winner of both starts over seven furlongs, and trained by John Gosden.

A daughter of Frankel out of Starscope - who was placed in a Guineas - Inspiral looks to be a middle-distance filly in the making. She looks very uncomplicated and John Gosden has suggested the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster as her likely target.

They have, by their own high standards, had a relatively disappointing season so far, but only a fool would discount them.

They still have a host of nicely bred, unraced two-year olds to unleash. One with a notable pedigree is New York City who is by Invincible Spirit, and a full brother to Invincible Army.

Sweden, a colt by Galileo out of Ribblesdale Stakes winner Even Song, is another name to note.

Coolmore also have a number of promising performers who have had just the one start; Glounthane, a Kodiac colt who won his only start to date, with Castle Star back in second.

And Tenebrism, a daughter of Caravaggio who was a facile winner of a five-furlong maiden back in March. She hasn’t been seen since but does hold entries for September.

Luxembourg, a son of Camelot who was a cosy winner over a mile on his debut and finished very strongly, beat Tuwaiq who is rated 99 by two lengths and gave him 2lb.

His pedigree on the dam’s side wouldn’t be the most impressive, but I was taken by his physique and stride length, and I could see him being a smart performer when stamina is the key requirement.

Forca Brasil was one of the first of many two-year old winners for both George Boughey and Amo Racing when comfortably winning on debut at Newmarket in April.

The form of the race has worked out well with both the second, Love De Vega and the fourth, Caturra, winning since and showing a high level of form.

He holds an entry in the Gimcrack Stakes at York and would be an exciting addition to the field.

Get Ahead was a winner at Ascot on debut for Clive Cox, and then finished sixth in the Queen Mary Stakes, when finishing lame, and that performance can certainly be upgraded.

Her owners, Hot To Trot Racing, have announced that she is now back in training and she remains a filly of untapped potential.