Constitution Hill's Flat debut: our experts have different views

"I was very lucky to ride work many times with Constitution Hill on some of Simon and Isaac’s horses throughout the year, and he is very straightforward. 

"He relaxes really well in his work, he's got a very good cruising speed and can quicken off a strong gallop. I think all of those qualities will stand him in good stead on Friday night.

"I see he's got stall 12, but I don't think that's going to be a problem for him because there's a bit of pace around him. 

"Dan Skelton's runner, Gambino, in 13, seemed to be ridden very handy for Noel Meade and Paul Nicholls’ horses (Nardaran in stall 10) like to go forward, as well. I think they will take him into the race. 

"Jumping out of stalls he might be a little bit slow, but I I don't think Oisin will be be worried or they'll be panicking that way.

"He will be able to get a little bit of cover and he's not going to be boxed in fourth or fifth down the inside, so Oisin will be able to wind him up as he sees fit. I think the race should be all be run smoothly for Constitution Hill and Southwell is a galloping track, with a nice straight for him to attack." 

"It’s an intriguing race in that he's got a lot of Jumps horses to contend with, including some fairly useful ones, even if they are not as smart as him. 

"Daddy Long Legs has obviously got a high level of ability; Tripoli Flyer was a very good bumper horse and Roadlesstravelled was graded class novice over hurdles, too. They've all got the similar sort of question as to how they will turn that form around onto the Flat. 

"Constitution Hill has always struck me as a horse with a lot pace and a lot of gears and, as such, the type that would do well on the Flat. 

"We’ve seen a lot of less talented Jumps horses than him come on to the Flat and make ther mark over middle distance and particularly in staying races over the past few years and I would expect that, even at nine years of age, he will probably be too classy for most of his rivals here. 

"The fly in the ointment, I suppose, could be Square Necker, who is a good quality Flat horse in his own right. He made a promising debut at Doncaster behind a good horse of Godolphin’s and then won easily when last seen a couple of months ago at Dundalk. 

"He's obviously got a penalty to carry, and he's moved yards once again ahead of this, but he does have a good level of ability, but I think all things considered Constitution Hill is likely, in receipt of weight, to be able to run to a higher level than him in the short term. 

"I think his draw in stall 12 is perhaps a help, too, in that you're on the outside and therefore if he isn't the best out of the gates, then it gives Oisin Murphy a better chance just to move him up into the position that he wants whilst getting a bit of daylight and not being crowded. So, it gives him options even if he isn't the sharpest out of the stalls, which might just be one of your little doubts going into the race. 

"Hopefully, he can go there and win. It would be a good to see him do exactly that and create a bit of interest ahead of the Festival. It would be good to see him go on and win, as I hope he will."

"It will not be easy for Constitution Hill as he's taken on two horses with decent proven Flat form. 

"Square Necker, in particular, was very impressive at Dundalk in December, beating a filly with a rating of 93 by almost four lengths without really being asked a question. David Egan is back. He was riding out in America and I wouldn't be surprised if he has come back especially for this one 

"You’ve also got Gambino for the Skeltons, who has only had two starts on the Flat as a four year old. He’s quite late maturing type but he's shown a decent standard and Hollie Doyle rides him. 

"The National Hunt horses in the race may well be taken out of their comfort zone, breaking from the gate, and Southwell is also a very quick all-weather surface. For me, it's probably one of the quickest, and I’d have much rather seen Constitution Hill at Kempton, where it rides a little bit slower. 

"Constitution Hill’s wide draw probably helps but, all in all, I think Square Necker is the one to be with."

"With 10 of the 12 runners being horses who have been plying their trade in the National Hunt field, this race has the feel of one of those all-weather bumpers that used to fill the void when turf racing was abandoned. Only Gambino and Square Necker cannot be classed as National Hunt horses and the level of form that they have shown on the Flat is modest. "In the absence of some well bred Dubawi’s and others from the likes of the Gosden and Haggas yard, Constitution Hill has to beat fellow National Hunt horses whom he is clearly superior to and he should be up to the task. "In terms of what  we will learn about him, the answer is an emphatic nothing, quite simply because there are no hurdles to jump. And as we all know jumping is his issue, not running fast in a straight line."

"Given his  recent performances over hurdles, you wonder whether he’s still got it?

"But he’s an eight-time Grade One winner with a lot of class who looks like he has the speed for 1m4f on the Flat I don’t think stall 12 is so bad. At least if he is a bit slow away Oisin has options and he won’t get stuck on the inside if the pace is slow, as so often happens on the all-weather.

"He should win and then who knows we could see him on the Flat through the summer maybe races like the Ebor,  some of the Cup races. I'm not sure if he’d stay the Gold Cup distance, but I certainly would love to see what he can do on the Flat, so let’s hope he wins well."

"The early betting suggested all Constitution Hill had to do was turn up to collect the vastly inflated first prize, the market has altered to reflect the competitive nature of the mile-and-a-half novice event.

"While I would have preferred to see him at Wincanton on Saturday in a race like the Kingwell Hurdle, this well-contested event will at least give us an idea whether Constitution Hill still has the aptitude and appetite for racing and his presence does brighten up a mundane February Friday night.

"At around 7-4, I would probably be more a layer than a player, but some races don't require a financial interest to be intriguing and this event fits that category."

"It's a difficult task, particularly from a wide draw and with his lack of experience in this sphere, but he has the ability and has champion jockey Oisin Murphy in the saddle.

"He will need to prove he has the speed and acceleration required to be competitive over this trip, however, particularly if doesn't get into a prominent position from the stalls.

"It's hard to fully judge the strength of his opposition on all known form, which makes it an even more fascinating head scratcher of a race. I’d love to see him win, but he’ll likely need plenty to go right and the race to pan out favourably for him, which is far from a given. If he can break well and enjoy a good trip around, he should be in the mix late on and may just have enough class to prevail."

"I've not enjoyed the 'will he won't he' ballot saga that has surrounded Constitution Hill's run at Southwell on Friday night and clearly this whole situation could've been handled better by the BHA. When you buy tickets for a major boxing fight, you usually know the two fighters are and I'm sure a vast majority of the ticket sales for Southwell, given how long ago this race has been the plan for Constitution Hill, were centred on him obviously running (barring a setback). It would've been the latest embarrassment in a long line for the sport had its superstar horse not been able to run. 

"However, now that's out the way, I have another nagging thought at the back of my brain. Nicky Henderson is one of the greatest trainers of all time, but surely everything surrounding Constitution Hill has taken a toll on him mentally. Were Constitution Hill to win in a canter at Southwell, thereby soliciting obvious clamour for him to run in the Champion Hurdle, will Henderson really be comfortable with letting him run in the race again when for arguably the only time of the year, the eyes of the sporting world are fully focused on horse racing? 

"Would it be easier for all involved if Constitution Hill was to disappoint at Southwell, thereby taking the need to make a decision on whether to run in the Champion Hurdle probably out of their hands? This is the bigger dilemma facing Henderson. Does he want to gamble on once again running a horse who has fallen in three of his last four starts in one of the biggest races of the year on the biggest of stages. 

"So what will Southwell tell us? A positive note on his wellbeing? A Flat campaign should beckon? He doesn't have the speed for the Flat? But the most crucial aspect of his wellbeing that we will not learn tomorrow - can his jumping hold up? 

"Constitution Hill is a Jumps horse. He has won a point-to-point, he has arguably put up the greatest ever performance at a Cheltenham Festival in the 2022 Supreme and has transcended the sport in terms of his popularity. But God forbid, if he were to win tomorrow and then run in the Champion Hurdle and the worst-case scenario happened, would the sport and would Henderson be able to recover? The odds of probability suggest another fall is perhaps unlikely and were he to regain his Champion Hurdle crown, it would create scenes similar to that after Sprinter Sacre's 2016 Champion Chase heroics. But is it worth the risk? This is the sport's marquee star. Some would argue that he's a racehorse bred for the job, but is this morally the right decision? 

"Life is a gamble. We all have to take chances, but this is neither the time nor place for Russian Roulette. Southwell is sure to lead to more questions than answers. Like Julius Caesar, Henderson now finds himself at the Rubicon. Does he decide to cross or do the risks outweigh the rewards?" 

"You can read my thoughts by clicking here. I fancy he will win at the main expense of Square Necker, with Gambino fancied to fill third."

"I cannot wait to see how Constitution Hill fares at Southwell on Friday. It seems a long time ago since he was being labelled as "the greatest hurdler of all time" following his stunning Champion Hurdle win. Of course, things have not gone to plan over the past couple of years but, in my opinion, you can't say with confidence that he isn’t as good as he once was. His Punchestown effort, at the end of a tough season, is easily excused, and he was still travelling nicely when falling at Cheltenham and Aintree.

"I guess the one slight concern is he lacks a recent run, although it’s unlikely he will need to be anywhere near his best to make a winning Flat debut. 

"It’s also worth noting the vibes from his connections have been extremely positive regarding his form, and with no hurdles in the way here, he will surely take all the beating."