Juvenile Watch: top tips for Newmarket on Friday and Saturday

Short-priced favourite Desert Flower has already comfortably bettered her closest market rival January in the May Hill Stakes at Doncaster over this trip.

She travelled comfortably that day and showed the significantly better turn of foot inside the final furlong.

Visually it appeared that January was closing in late on so it’s feasible that this stiffer test will see her improve, but William Buick was not overly strong on Charlie Appleby’s filly once she’d got the race in the bag and I think she won with a degree of comfort.

Interestingly, RaceiQ clocked them as running virtually identical splits for the closing furlong; Desert Flower 12.08sec and January 12.07sec.

It’s hard to find a reasonable argument as to how Aidan O’Brien’s filly can reverse the form here but, equally, I’m not of the mind set to back juvenile fillies at short odds at this time of the year.

Tabiti has 5lb to find on official ratings but is open to plenty of improvement with just two starts to her name. She’s won both, first over 7f on the Newmarket July course where on good to firm ground she impressed with a straightforward attitude and smart change of gear when winning a maiden.

On her second start (watch above) she coped with a drop back in trip to win the Group Three Dick Poole Stakes at Salisbury.

On officially good to soft ground, which looked to ride slower than described, she showed an admirable to prevail despite being the first under pressure.

I was left convinced that it was class and talent that saw her maintain her unbeaten record. This step up to a mile should suit her well and the experience of battling hard will not be lost on her.

There is no finer trainer than Ralph Beckett when it comes to developing fillies with each run and she may well be capable of upsetting the short-priced favourite.

Selection: Tabiti.

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Shackleton looks highly likely to be favourite for this Group Three contest, and despite only winning one of his three starts, he’s performed consistently plus was devoid of luck on his debut when short of room at a crucial time. 

His dam, Damaniyat Girl, gained both of her victories at just six furlongs, yet in all three starts, it’s clear that like many of the progeny from his sire, Camelot, Shackleton is a stamina-laden individual. 

His win at the Curragh on his latest start exemplified this. Over a trip of 1m1f, he made virtually all and was driven fully three furlongs from home. However, when the challengers arrived, he found plenty and was pulling further clear at the line. This extra furlong will therefore surely suit him well. 

He isn’t though the most regally-bred colt that Ballydoyle have sent to the UK this year, and I think his current price of 2-1 is more based on his connections, rather than the substance of his form. 

For that reason, I am keen to oppose him with Starzintheireyes who made a thoroughly pleasing debut over seven furlongs at Newmarket in July. Having been slow into stride, he needed to be switched to find some space and from there he finished powerfully to be beaten just over three lengths. 

The winner, Field Of Gold, had the advantage of prior experience and has since won the Group Three Solario Stakes before shaping well at Group One level on his latest start.

Starzintheireyes was given two months to develop before his second start, again over seven furlongs, and duly delivered a much-improved performance. He broke on terms and travelled sweetly, and while he did require assistance from the saddle some way out, he responded generously plus had the race won comfortably before showing signs of greenness when hitting the front. 

This biggert test of stamina looks sure to suit him given his dam, Crystal Hope, is from a classy middle-distance family, and I like that the experience he gained over seven furlongs is going to mean he will travel comfortably through the early stages. 

Trainer Ralph Beckett continues in excellent form and can grab yet another Group prize here. 

Selection: Starzintheireyes. 

Delacroix will look to atone for a surprising defeat in a Group Two on his latest start at Leopardstown. On that occasion, I think he lost crucial ground when racing wide on the right-handed bend at Leopardstown, and the winner Green Impact travelled with more natural speed. Despite closing rapidly, the line came too soon for Delacroix. 

As with his previous two starts, the son of Dubawi showed signs of greenness, this time when hanging left when initially coming under pressure, yet it’s hard not to like his aptitude for a battle. 

Other than Wolf Of Badenoch, who looked a weak finisher in the Group Two Champagne Stakes over seven furlongs, he holds the experience advantage over his four other rivals.

I expect Ryan Moore to resort to the tactics he successfully employed when winning at the Curragh on Delacroix and force the pace from the front. The rising ground at the finish will see Delacroix at his best, too, and I expect him to win this with a powerful final furlong. 

Selection: Delacroix.

Heading the market is the unbeaten The Lion In Winter. He surprised me when winning the Group Three Acomb at York as I beleived he might lack the speed for that contest on good to firm ground, given he had looked short of a gear when grinding out a debut victory at the Curragh. 

Yet like many Aidan O’Brien-trained juveniles, he showed significant improvement on his second start and never had a moments worry at York where he shared the lead and won cosily from Wimbledon Hawkeye who has since won the Group Two Royal Lodge. 

He’s still open to any amount of improvement and having won over a pacey seven furlongs, the trip here should hold no fears for all that his pedigree suggests he’ll be at his best when racing over further than a mile (the same could be said about last year's winner City Of Troy).  

He looks to hold outstanding credentials, but the only minor negative would be that he’d need to prove he can handle the dip. He does look a well-balanced colt, though.

Remarkably, his sire Sea The Stars is yet to have a Group One winning two-year old, but I expect that to change here. I’m not often inclined to bet at odds-on and the mild concern about the dip, and the fact that at this time of year form can get turned due to horses changing in their coats, means I’ll pass up on the opportunity to back him. 

Shadow Of Light has only been beaten once in his four starts, and that came in the Gimcrack at York where it's likely he raced on the wrong part of the track. 

He produced a visually striking performance when winning the Middle Park over six furlongs at this track two weeks ago but I’m not entirely convinced by the substance of the form.  The runner-up, Whistlejacket, is not a reliable form line as, on more than one occasion, he’s appeared to have a suspect attitude in a finish and I’m not sure he offered much in the way of fight in the Middle Park. Equally, the third and fourth home don’t look particularly high class. 

The step up to seven furlongs should be within range for Shadow Of Light as he finished powerfully last time, but any enthusiasm for him is tempered by the fact that just one horse, US Navy Flag in 2017, has completed the Middle Park and Dewhurst double in the past thirty renewals. 

Godolphin’s other representative, Ancient Truth, had been my long-term fancy for this but after final declarations, I have real concerns. The fact that Godolphin felt compelled to supplement Shadow Of Light and the fact first-choice jockey William Buick has chosen him over Ancient Truth means that I’m left concerned whether connections don’t rate him as highly as I do, or that they think he’s not been sparkling in his work of late. 

Either way, the confidence I had about his chance has evaporated, and he’s one I can only watch. 

If I were to have a bet in this race (and, of course, it’s not compulsory to bet in every televised race) I would play the forecast with The Lion In Winter and the Coolmore second-string Expanded. He lacks experience having raced just once and despite it looking unlikely for much of the seven-furlong contest, he did actually make a winning debut at the Curragh. Having travelled nicely through the early stages, he was presented with a nice gap between horses to make his challenge.

He did seem reluctant to go through that gap, and took an age to answer his riders urgings, but once moving forward, he found a sparkling change of gear and won going away. 

A half-brother to Henry Adams, he’s open to any amount of improvement, so with concerns held over the Godolphin pair, the forecast might well be a profitable option. 

Selection: Straight forecast - The Lion In Winter to beat Expanded.