Juvenile Watch tips: Newmarket Saturday bets from Ross Millar

Our two-year-old racing expert Ross Millar shares his thoughts on the slew of high-class juveniles races coming up with insight and tips for the Rockfel, Royal Lodge, Middle Park and Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket. Enjoy all the action on the Rowley Mile live on Racing TV.

When: Saturday, 1.50 Newmarket Distance: 1m Class: Group 2

At the time of writing on Thursday, I’m surprised that CAPULET is still as big as 2-1.

I think the level of form that he’s shown in his two starts is better than his eight rivals have managed and I’d suggest that if his stablemate and conqueror from the KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes, Diego Velazquez, was in this line-up he’d be close to being odds-on. Given only a neck separated them at Leopardstown - and that it could be argued the winner received a more vigorous ride than Capulet inside the final furlong - then there are grounds to suggest that his current price resembles real value.

The Rowley Mile will play to his clear stamina and I’d expect Ryan Moore to keep it simple and set his own fractions out in front.

I found Aablan thoroughly underwhelming in the Solario Stakes at Sandown. He looked green and lacking in balance when asked for his finishing effort and he took an age to find his stride. This extra furlong will admittedly aid his cause, but I’m not convinced he’ll cope with the unique topography of this track.

When: Saturday, 2.25 Newmarket Distance: 6f Class: Group 1

I love RELIEF RALLY and surely this is a selection that comes as no surprise to regular readers of Juvenile Watch!

She’s tough, consistent and exceptionally talented and, while clearly not short of pace, I’m convinced this six-furlong trip is perfect for her - as illustrated by her power-packed finish at York when she quickened up well from an unpromising position to win the Lowther Stakes with more authority than the one-length margin might suggest.

William Haggas has spaced her races out impeccably this term and she arrives here off the same four-week break that has been customary this season. Tom Marquand knows her well, she’s adaptable with regards to ground and will surely have too much of a finishing effort for the remainder of the field.

Those looking for an each-way angle may wish to consider Eve Johnson Houghton’s Juniper Berries. She’s had a busy campaign – this will be her eighth start of the season – but she produced a career-best last time to win the Dick Poole Stakes at Salisbury. The winning margin was just a short head, but given how powerfully she travelled and that jockey Charles Bishop had to patiently navigate traffic it’s an effort that can be upgraded. Her fourth in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot puts her in the same vicinity as Relief Rally and, at a double-figure price, she can hit the frame.

When: Saturday, 3.00 Newmarket Distance: 6f Class: Group 1

I’d be very surprised if favourite Vandeek proves as effective on this forecast quick ground after running on soft and testing ground the last twice. He only got up in the dying strides in the Prix Morny in very soft ground over this trip and I wonder whether seven furlongs might be more optimal on this livelier surface.

RIVER TIBER was 2¼ lengths behind Vandeek at Deauville but had endured an interrupted preparation leading up to that contest. Unlike Vandeek, he has already demonstrated the ability to handle a faster surface and in my opinion has more natural speed. He saw out the six-furlong trip well when winning the Coventry Stakes and the stiff Rowley Mile track looks a positive, while Aidan O’Brien has an even deeper pool of talented juvenile colts than normal this term so the very fact that River Tiber is the sole Ballydoyle representative speaks volumes.

Jasour looked impressive when winning the July Stakes before looking to get stuck in the mud in Deauville last time (he’d previously been declared a non-runner on soft ground at Goodwood). He should not be underestimated and a price of 9-1 looks appealing for each-way players.

At a huge price, I wouldn’t completely discount Givemethebeatboys. He was third at the Curragh last time when ridden patiently in a race that favoured those positioned prominently and, prior to that, had finished only 1¾ lengths behind River Tiber at Royal Ascot when given what was arguably an over-aggressive ride by Frankie Dettori.

Newmarket isn’t the only source of high-class two-year old contests this weekend with a pair of Group One races on Arc day at ParisLongchamp - the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere for colts over seven furlongs and the Prix Marcel Boussac over a mile for the fillies.

Native American featured in this column earlier in the year before running away with a valuable auction contest at the Curragh on his latest start. He did some excellent work in the closing stages and I think the step up to seven furlongs looks a logical move. At this stage he’d be the one that most interests me.

If the ground is genuinely soft, then it’s hard to look beyond Darnation in the Boussac. She clearly thrives on testing ground and made easy work of landing the Group Two May Hill Stakes last time. However, this will be her third start inside a month - all on testing ground - and even though she has visually made easy work of things I wonder whether those exertions might take their toll.

This is a race where I’ll be sitting on my hands.

When: Friday, 3.00 Newmarket Distance: 7f Class: Group 2

SHUWARI looks to hold outstanding claims.

Her Listed win at Sandown now looks like a really strong piece of form given that the runner-up, Fallen Angel, has landed the Group Three Sweet Solera Stakes and top-level moyglare Stud Stakes in the interim and I’m confident that she holds the best form in this field by some distance.

The stiff nature of the Rowley Mile will play to her strengths, and while she demonstrated a smart turn of foot to win on debut on Good to Firm ground, the forecast showers on Thursday will likely be welcome for this daughter of New Bay as I’m sure she’d prefer a little bit of cut in the ground. She looks a straightforward ride and arrives here fresh.

Of the others, Ylang Ylang is surely better than she showed last time when trailing home last of the nine runners in the Moyglare, though ahead of that Group One assignment I felt she was vulnerable against genuine Group performers and that sentiment still remains.

Carla’s Way would interest me most if trying to find the forecast. On the back of a 64-day break she travelled too exuberantly on soft ground in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood and that told in the closing stages as she faltered into second place. It was still a run of merit however and, on better ground, she can improve again.