Juvenile Watch: Middle Park winner looks overestimated

On paper this looked a competitive renewal of this Group Two contest. But in reality Wimbledon Hawkeye won with a degree of comfort. 

I suggested before the Acomb Stakes that while he was capable of hitting the frame at York, he was a colt that I expected to progress further when facing a mile. That proved to be the case, on ground that was officially soft, but rapidly drying. 

He travelled powerfully and quickened up smartly. The length-and-a-half winning margin would have been more but for the fact that he idled close to the line. 

Connections have suggested that he might now go again in the Futurity Stakes at Doncaster over this same trip later this month. 

With current ante-post favourite for that race, The Lion In Winter, an intended runner in the Dewhurst, it might well be that James Owen’s colt won’t have to improve all that much to cope with the step up to Group One level. 

Indeed, his new official BHA rating is on par with any rating held by a winner in the past decade. 

His sire, Kameko, pulled off the Royal Lodge/Futurity double five years ago, but that was when the Futurity was run at Newcastle on the all-weather. 

I have few concerns over the opposition at Doncaster but to my eye Wimbledon Hawkeye has a galloping action that suggests he will be far better suited by a sound surface, so soft ground would put me off his chance. 

Royal Playwright ran another solid race and is worthy of contesting pattern races moving forwards, though he is not in the same class as the winner. 

Amo Racing’s moderate year with their extensive array of juveniles continued with their representative, Angelo Buonarroti, only able to manage a well-beaten third. 

However, he was a significantly more imposing physical specimen than his rivals and looks very much like a colt for next year.  

Luther was a disappointment. He was already well beaten when failing to handle the dip. It is likely that he did not enjoy this slower ground, although I would also add that he strikes me as an unfurnished juvenile and as such this may have been one run too many in what has been a promising first season. 

A son of Frankel out of a Group Three-winning mare over ten, I’m confident he will show himself to be better than this over middle distances next season.  

This certainly did not have the strength in depth that you might normally associate with this contest, especially with the hitherto unbeaten Babouche patently failing to give her running. 

Yet that should not detract from the awesome display given by Lake Victoria.  

She coped with the drop back in trip to 6f with staggering ease – in some part aided by the fact the early furlongs were run at only a moderate pace – and showed a, previously unseen, smart turn off foot to have the race won from some way out, with her proven stamina meaning that once she got to the front she was always going to prove hard to pass. 

The three-length winning margin in no way flattered her. She was convincingly better than the rest of the field.  

In the immediate aftermath Ryan Moore suggested that she could return to Newmarket for the Fillies’ Mile later this month. 

Although while not dismissing it, trainer Aidan O’Brien did point out that asking her to drop to 6f from 7f and then moving her up to a mile might be a big ask. 

Regardless, it seems a certainty that her juvenile season is not done yet. I’d fully expect her to feature in the Ballydoyle contingent that heads to the Breeders’ Cup. 

Babouche was some way below her best. Through the early stages she raced in company with Lake Victoria and Rayevka. Unlike the winner, who settled beautifully, Babouche was lit up and racing with no cover alongside the equally hard-pulling Rayevka. It meant Colin Keane was never able to get her into a rhythm. 

After such inefficient early furlongs it was no surprise to see her weaken late on. It’s too her enormous testament that she was beaten just under five lengths, given she appeared to not enjoy the ground either.  

Connections seem satisfied that 6f is her trip, meaning she likely won’t face the winner again. If returned to a sound surface I would be confident she would comfortably reverse the form with the two fillies that finished ahead of her. 

Of the three juvenile contests that were run at Newmarket on Saturday this is the one that I anticipate will have the least influence on my punting going forward. 

Having been quite impressed with Whistlejacket in his early starts I quickly developed a deep suspicion about his attitude, particularly when under pressure. 

He appeared to run well below form on Saturday when, unlike in Deauville for his Prix Morny win, he was unable to dominate. 

His sub-par performance meant that in hindsight Shadow Of Light was left with a relatively easy assignment. 

A son of Lope De Vega, he undoubtedly enjoyed the cut in the ground here and was blessed with a better track position than he had when runner-up in the Gimcrack at York on his previous start. 

He was visually impressive, but I do not think the form is worth all that much in the realm of Group contests, given that third-placed Dash Dizzy had previously won a Kempton novice. His trainer, Charlie Appleby, suggested he was more of a Commonwealth Cup horse for next season. A best price of 8/1 makes absolutely no appeal to me. 

Jouncy was the one I’d take from the race. I felt his form heading into this contest had been underestimated and, while he did nothing to back-up that theory, I feel he was given a moderate ride. 

He will certainly be a better horse over 7f and I wonder whether in hindsight Oisin Murphy would have been better off making use of his stamina in a steadily run race. He is in my tracker and has all the markings of a 2025 cliff horse! 

This is a feature where I ask a trainer to nominate one as yet unraced juvenile that they think will shape up into a three-year old worth following next season. 

Dylan Cunha, fresh from Prague’s Group Two win at Newmarket, was in a generous mood for this week and offered not just one but three juveniles he believes are worth putting in your Racing TV tracker ahead of next season: 

(Lightning Spear x Deep Blue Sea)  

I’m cheating a bit here as she doesn’t fully fit the brief given she’s already made her debut. But I do think she’s a nice filly in the making. She made a promising debut at Beverley over 5f where she was green and a touch outpaced but showed a good attitude. Her mother stayed further, as did her siblings. She looks promising. 

Clough (Mastercraftsman x Tantalising)  

He’s a nice model that is pleasing us. His dam was a tough and consistent handicapper who stayed well and I’d expect him to be similar. We’ve been patient with him and I’m confident that will serve us well. Like all our current horses, he was a cheap purchase at just £8,000. I’m hoping that our recent success might allow us to expand our buying budget for next season, so if anyone likes what we’re doing they’re welcome to get in touch!