How To Bet £20 on Saturday: Mullins can weave his magic with 11-1 chance

If any trainer can win a Betfair Hurdle with a horse yet to win a race then it is Willie Mullins and he can prove the point by landing Saturday’s renewal with Ciel De Niege.

Backing a horse who remains a maiden after six outings; fluffed his lines when 1-4 last time and who, on jockey bookings, is the second -string of his owner, will not be for everyone when it comes to having a punt on one of the most competitive handicaps of the winter.

But the 11-1 chance has shown masses of promise in three runs for Mullins and a mark of 135 almost certainly underestimates him. He’s already shown that the hurly burly of big-field handicaps hold no fears and his Flat pedigree points to the drying ground and the flat nature of Newbury also unlocking further improvement.

Ciel De Niege made his debut for Mullins in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March and kept on (watch below) to be an eye-catching third to Band Of Outlaws after being anchored in rear for much of the journey. He bumped into a smart winner that day who was subsequently unlucky not to land the Galway Hurdle.

When Ciel De Niege returned in another valuable contest at Fairyhouse in December, having been purchased by JP McManus in the interim, he again ran well to make the frame under considerate handling, although the way he drifted on the Betfair exchange beforehand suggested he was not expected to be at his peak.

By contrast, Janadil, in the same green-and-gold colours of McManus, was a well-backed favourite and duly won.

On his latest start, Ciel De Niege suffered a surprise defeat in another big field at Limerick but he was desperately unlucky not to win after almost being taken out on the run to two out, when he was travelling much the best.

Those two outings should have put him spot-on for this assignment and, only 3lb higher than at Cheltenham, he is clearly weighted to make another bold bid under Aidan Coleman, who has won 66 races for McManus in Britain at a strike rate of 19 per cent.

McManus’s number one rider, Barry Geraghty, will be on Never Adapt, but I would not read too much into that because the 10st 5lb that Ciel De Niege has to carry would be an absolute minimum for him to ride at these days. I imagine sticking with the mare, who has 10st 13lb and clearly takes a bit of knowing, was something of a formality.

Never Adapt and Highly Prized, among nine in the field to have won last time out, are the pair I fear most, but Ciel De Niege looks tailor-made for the race and so I’ll put all my eggs in the one basket. Coral's standout 14-1 has gone but the 11-1 available looks fair enough. The sponsors quote 9-1, but do offer six places for those who want to play each-way.

Peaking further ahead, Betfair and Ladbrokes offer Ciel De Niege at 33-1 for next month’s County Hurdle, which would be an obvious next port of call.

On the subject of Cheltenham, I’ve already backed One For The Team ante-post at 25-1 for the Pertemps Final and will be left fearing the worst if he does not land the Betfair Bet In-Play Handicap Hurdle on Newbury’s supporting card, for which he is quoted at 100-30.

The Nick Williams-trained six-year-old looks a thorough stayer and has run well in defeat at Newbury (strong form) and Warwick on his past two starts, without either competitive race getting to the bottom of him.

He remains open to plenty of improvement after only five runs over hurdles but is going to have to up his game sooner, rather than later, to make the cut at Cheltenham because his rating is only 130. He could do with being elevated at least 5lb or 6lb.

That will not be lost on the Williams camp and this this looks a good opportunity for him to win and, in the process, book his ticket. Dolphin Square, who finished behind him at Newbury but is worse off at the weights after a subsequent success, can chase him home.

My other bet on a card that features top-class acts such as Altior and Native River is going to be Highest Sun in the Back Or Lay On The Betfair Exchange Novices' Limited Handicap Chase.

He ran below-par in Grade Two company at Warwick last time but hold-up tactics seemed to backfire and he never got into a rhythm on a track where the fences come thick and fast.

He had previously run well here (behind Champ) and at Ascot (behind Pym) and this represents shallower waters. I fancy his connections will revert to more positive tactics.

At Warwick, Generous Day is worth a small bet in the Paddy Power From The Horses Mouth Warwick Castle Handicap Chase.

It does not look the deepest race for the £50,000 prize money on offer and I’m happy to forgive him waving the white flag at Cheltenham last time because he did not look at home on the track or on the testing ground.

He had previously won in good style at Kempton and was 2-2 over fences at Warwick last season.

The strong-travelling Two Taffs rates a threat but he stopped quickly in the Ladbrokes Trophy last time – admittedly over a trip that probably stretched him – and has never been the strongest of finishers.

Henry Oliver, the trainer of Generous Day, also has bright prospects with Sastruga in the two-mile handicap hurdle earlier on the card.

He was given anything but a hard race when runner-up at Uttoxeter last time but has not been missed by the bookmakers.

Similarly, Nube Negra heads the market for the Agetur UK Kingmaker Novices’ Chase but I’m surprised he is not much shorter than 13-8 and so will be having a punt.

Dan Skelton’s six-year-old has taken well to fences and ran a cracker when chasing home Esprit Du Large in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown last time, having previously impressed at this track.

He jumps well, boasts the best form and the drying ground will also be in his favour. I make him an odds-on chance.

How To Bet £20 on Saturday:

1.50 Newbury: One For The Team £5 win at a general 100-30

1.50 Newbury: £1 Exacta on One For The Team to beat Dolphin Square

2.05 Warwick: Nube Negra £3 win at a general 13-8

3.15 Warwick: Generous Day £2 win at 12-1 with BetVictor and William Hill

3.35 Newbury: Ciel De Neige £2 win and £2 each-way at 11-1 with bet365 and Unibet (both offer 5 places)

4.10 Newbury: Highest Sun £3 win at 3-1 with William Hill

1.50 Newbury: One For The Team

2.05 Warwick: Nube Negra

3.35 Newbury: Ciel De Neige

3.15 Warwick: Generous Day

4.10 Newbury: Highest Sun