How To Bet £20 on Saturday: make most of Dilemma

It generally pays to be up near the pace in the sprints at York when the ground is on the quick side and Democacy Dilemma is too big to resist at 11-1 with bet365 in the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dash Handicap on Saturday. 

The Robert Cowell-trained five-year-old would be a potential champion if there were 4f races because he has bundles of early speed and is invariably in front after half a furlong or so. 

He gave it a typically good go from the front in the Dash at Epsom last time, hitting 45.6 mph at one stage, but the softish surface was never going to help him when it mattered most and he faded in the closing stages. 

Drying conditions on the Knavesmire will play much more to his strengths and, eased 2lb in the ratings, he promises to take plenty of pegging back. 

Democacy Dilemma has run crackers on his two previous outings at York, which came last summer. 

On the first occasion he was a close third to Starlust, the subsequent Breeders’ Cup winner, and the following month he was a gallant fourth (beaten under a length) to JM Jungle over an extended 5f, when losing a couple of places in the closing stages. 

This bare 5f will suit him better and he’s 15lb better off with the winner, who heads the market at around 7-2. 

Lake Forest is no bigger than 7-4 for Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Criterion Stakes, which is perhaps not surprising as he drops in class after not being beaten far in the Queen Anne last time. 

However, the form of that steadily-run race is dubious and, perhaps more significant, the four-year-old is usually held up and may end up swimming against the tide. 

At the prices, I’d rather row in with 20-1 chance Lethal Levi, a genuine front-runner who looks likely to get an easy lead under Clifford Lee. 

The six-year-old has never been in better form, being touched off in a Group Two contest at The Curragh last time, having previously faced a thankless task trying to concede 17lb to More Thunder at Newmarket. 

His recent runs have been over 6f but he’s equally as good, if not better, over 7f, and won at Newbury the last time we saw him over the trip. He’s 0-6 at York, which is a niggle, although he went close at the Dante meeting a couple of years ago. 

Archivist is a short price for the opening Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Mile Handicap. This handicap debutant looks priced on potential, though, and Nordic Norm, chalked up at 14-1, is more interesting. 

He looked a fair prospect when beating Warrant Holder on his debut at Newcastle in February, with the runner-up subsequently mastering Rahiebb (since a close third in the Queen’ Vase and rated 105). 

Nordic Norm himself bumped into Rahiebb next time, finding him too hot to handle in the closing stages when conceding 7lb, before cutting little ice in Listed company on his latest start. 

Off for ten weeks and gelded in the interim, he now makes his handicap bow off a mark of 86. You can certainly make a case for him being favourably treated to judge by his first two starts 

Back-to-back winners of the Northumberland Plate are rare, but Onesmoothoperator looks capable of joining an elite band. 

He was a striking winner 12 months ago, leading on the bridle two out before accelerating clear. It’s not pften you see this race won in such style and that was not the first time has shone at Newcastle, either. 

Brian Ellison’s charge went on to excel in Australia, winning the Geelong Cup before running creditably in the Melbourne Cup. 

He’s been in action in pattern events in Dubai this year, but what he really wants is a big field and end-to-end gallop, which is what he will again get here. 

A 12lb higher mark that last year will clearly make life tougher for him, but I couldn’t find many in the race who made much appeal and if he’s in the same kind for form, then a bold bid at double-figure odds seems assured. 

Ideally, I’d have preferred him to be drawn higher than stall 7, but Who Dares Wins won from that gate in 2019. His four-month absence isn’t a worry, given he had been off a couple of months before firing on all cylinders 12 months ago. 

Finally, I’ll be having a wager on Ferrous, chalked up at a general 13-2 for the JenningsBet Chipchase Stakes. 

He confirmed himself as a sprinter on the up when defying a mark of 102 over course and distance last time, having previously scored at Lingfield and Southwell this year. 

Thwe five-year-old has been freshened up since – he goes well fresh – and this looks something of a Cup Final for him, given his effectiveness on the all-weather. He can make the most of the 7lb that Kind Of Blue, disappointing on his return in France when he blew the start, must concede. 

1.55 York: Nordic Norm £1.50 each-way at a general 14-1

2.10 Newcastle: £2 win on Ferrous at a general 13-2 

2.25 York: £2.50 each-way on Lethal Levi at 20-1 with Paddy Power and Sky Bet (three places) 

3.00 York: £2.25 each-way Democracy Dilemma at 11-1 with bet365 (three places) 

3.15 Newcastle: £2.75 each-way on Onesmoothoperator at 11-1 with Paddy Power and Sky Bet (six places)