Join

How To Bet £20 on Saturday: Johnston has another Sweet one

Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023

Master trainer Aidan O’Brien often speaks of “variables” when it comes to assessing the future prospects of his horses and one “variable” that punters have to deal with on a regular basis is the ground.

Finding winners is never easy at the best of times and it will be complicated on Saturday by the prospect of more thunderstorms and showers around Britain.

I’d certainly be wary of getting stuck into Real World at Haydock because he’s clearly relished fast going at Royal Ascot and Newbury on his past two starts. And don’t bank on Saeed bin Suroor pulling him out if the ground in Merseyside does deteriorate because he may be curious to see if he can handle it.

**Editor's note: Real World is now a non-runner

I’m going to keep my powder relatively dry, with the first of three selections coming at Newmarket where, whisper it quietly, the rain seems unlikely to have a big say.

2.50 Newmarket: Value Theory at 4-1 wth bet365

Finished: 3rdSP: 3/1

This does not look the strongest renewal of the Sweet Solario, with Wild Beauty a short-priced favourite despite being put firmly in her place by Inspiral at Sandown last time. The Frankel filly, out of a Pivotal mare, had previously won twice on slow ground and may need some give underfoot to be seen to best advantage.

Value Theory is more interesting after confirming the promise of her debut with a fluent all-the-way win over course and distance last time. She skimmed over the the July Course that day and pulled away in the closing stages to win without being anything like fully extended.

That was only a novice contest but the time was solid and there is some substance to the form with Annie’s Song, who was third, having previously finished a similar distance behind Zain Claudette, the subsequent Princess Margaret winner.

In addition, Mark Johnston knows what is required to land this prize, having landed it three times since 2014, including twice with fillies who had run only twice beforehand. The early 5-1 has been taken, but 4-1 still appeals.

I will probably also have a small play on Victoria Grove. She is a chunky price considering she shaped well behind Inspiral when the pair made their respective debuts here in late June, albeit in a steadily-run contest.

newmarket

13:40 Newmarket - Saturday July 17

Value Theory wins at Newmarket last time

3.45 Ascot: Royal Scimitar at a general 3-1

Finished: 3rdSP: 5/1

This colt made a taking winning debut over 6f at Newbury last summer and, belatedly dropped back to that trip, was a big eye-catcher when fourth to Blackrod in a highly competitive 17-runner sprint handicap at Newmarket last time.

All the action unfolded on the far rail in that race and Royal Scimitar, who spent the majority of the race with the stands’ side group, did tremendously to be beaten only half a length. He was easily best of the pack he raced with.

Six furlongs is clearly what he wants and, only 2lb higher, this lesser contest looks his for the taking. The likeable Popmaster is the obvious threat but he was fortunate to finish a short head in front of Royal Scmitar at Newmarket, considering where each raced, and is now 5lb worse off.

Royal Scimitar is unproven on softer ground but his sire, Territories, was at home in the mud and plenty of his stock enjoy such conditions. His dam was unraced but also related to soft-ground performers.

6.25 Ayr: Bridgetown at 5-1 with William Hill

Finished: 4thSP: 9/4

If my afternoon punting goes astray, then I’ll be looking to Bridgetown to get me out a hole.

His first two runs over 7f on the all-weather looked educational but his turf debut over 6f at Doncaster last time, when beaten a head by the odds-on Zaamit, was much more like it.

He tanked along in rear that day, made ground rapidly out wide and after hitting the front stuck to his task when headed. A mark of 60 for his handicap bow looks fair and if the ground softens (as seems likely given the forecast) he is bred to cope being by Mayson out of a mare who also handled softish conditions.

Racing TV

9.0K Videos
212.0K Subscribers
185.9M Views

RACING TV is the home of British and Irish racing, showcasing live and exclusive horse racing action from 61 of the very best racecourses in the UK and Ireland in stunning HD. Our dedicated horse racing channel was set up in 2004 by our racecourse shareholders and is dedicated to broadcasting more than 800 live race meetings a year with commentary, debate and tipping from 35 of the UK's top racecourses and all 26 Irish racecourses. All Racing TV profits are returned to its racecourse shareholders to support the sport. Racing TV goes out to over 65,000 commercial and residential subscribers. Tune in by going to Sky 424 (UK, NI, ROI), Virgin Media 536 (UK, NI), 411 (ROI). You can also watch Racing TV at racingtv.com and on the iPhone/iPad app, Android app and mobile-optimised website. Find out more about the Racing TV large screen app at www.racingtv.com/largescreenapp Followers must be 18+ and please gamble responsibly: gambleaware.org