How To Bet £20 on Saturday: 50-1 chance deserves second look

There is something for everyone on Saturday with Classic Trials, top jump racing and fiercely competitive handicaps all rubbing shoulders. In Britain alone, there will be 505 runners to consider.

The 28-runner tote Victoria Cup at Ascot looks the toughest puzzle to solve but the bookmakers are dangling a carrot by offering extra places and I’m going to be splitting my stakes on Eagleway, who is a whopping 50-1, and Fresh, chalked up at 9-1.

With most of the pace among the middle to high numbers, this pair look well-positioned in stalls 11 and 13, not least because this annual cavalry charge often develops down the centre of the track.

I’m not sure why the layers are so dismissive about Eagleway because he’s only 3lb higher than when beating all bar River Nymph in last year’s renewal, and he gave a reminder of his ability when a creditable sixth on his return in the Lincoln.

Ascot’s stiff 7f is probably ideal for him and it was only a couple of runs ago, when winning at Southwell, that he ran as well as he has ever done in Britain. Tadleel, the runner-up that day, has won his subsequent two starts.

Betfair and Paddy Power are offering six places and make Eagleway 50-1 but, on balance, Sky Bet’s 40-1 makes more appeal as they are going eight places for each-way players.

Fresh attracted support on Friday morning, having been a double-figure price, but you can still get 9-1 with bet365, who are going seven places.

The James Fanshawe-trained five-year-old has proved something of a tease since winning the 6f handicap on this card last year but several of his subsequent efforts, including when touched off in the Wokingham and when third in the Balmoral on Champions Day, indicate he has a big handicap in him.

His reappearance run when narrowly failing to get up over 6f at Kempton last month confirmed he has returned in good heart as he swept through from the back of the field with an impressive turn of speed. He’s clearly most effective at that trip but there remains untapped potential over 7f.

It will be a surprise if he is not in the thick of the action at the business end and he strikes me as the most likely winner under the excellent Danny Tudhope. I hope so, as I've had the Kool And The Gang tune of the same name as an earworm since considering his chances. I apologise if you are now similarly afflicted.

My other fancy on the card is Ford Maddox Brown in the closing 6f handicap.

The four-year-old looked in the grip of the handicapper when running over 7f/a mile last summer for David O’Meara and changed hands for 20,000gns at the autumn sales.

He’s now with Stuart Williams and his new handler is wasting no time trying him over 6f, which looks a good move as the grey hinted several times last summer that he would at least be worth a try over shorter, as befits a half-brother to Librisa Breeze, the Group One-winning sprinter.

Librisa Breeze himself spent the early part of his career running over distances between 7f and 1m 2f but it was when dropped in trip that his form took off. For what it’s worth, he also enjoyed his giddiest days at Ascot.

It’s asking a lot for lightning to strike twice but Ford Maddox Brown, 20-1 with bet365, is only 1lb higher than when last successful and his trainer’s four runners excelled at Newmarket last Saturday when finishing in the first three at 125-1, 33-1, 25-1 and 18-1.

The Racing TV cameras will capture the action at Haydock Park, where there is an excellent mix of Flat and Jumps action.

As regular readers will know, I’m a big fan of conditional/apprentice jockeys in the big handicaps and I’m hoping the highly promising 5lb claimer Mark McDonagh will be in for a day to savour aboard Party Business, who runs in the Pertemps Network Long Distance Hurdle, and Anna Bunina, who contests the Pertemps Network Swinton Handicap Hurdle.

McDonagh has had only 21 winners but they include successes in big-field handicaps at the Dublin Racing Festival, on Birchdale, and this year’s Cheltenham Festival, aboard Banbridge. He also has a Grade Three Novice Hurdle victory on his CV.

Party Business quickly made up into a useful novice last season and built on an unlucky staying-on fifth in the Martin Pipe, on his handicap bow at Cheltenham, when winning in determined style over 3m at Aintree on Grand National Day.

He has been pushed up 9lb for that success but it looks warranted with he and Ilikedwayurthinkin pulling a dozen lengths clear. McDonagh’s claim helps reduce that, plus, of course, Party Business, chalked up at 13-2, is open to more improvement having had only six runs over jumps, and only one of them over 3m.

Anna Bunina did notably well to land the Scottish Champion Hurdle last time after meeting trouble in running and her 5lb rise is offset by McDonagh being recruited, plus the fact she had slipped in the ratings beforehand.

Haydock’s Flat terrain promises to suit her just as well, while the drying ground is also in her favour. West Cork and Milkwood, not far behind at Ayr, tackle her again but Anna Bunina, available at 13-2, can confirm her superiority.

2.25 Haydock: £3 win on Party Business at a general 13-2

3.00 Haydock: £3 win and £1 each-way on Anna Bunina at 13-2 with William Hill

4.05 Ascot: £2 win and £2 each-way on Fresh at 9-1 with bet365

4.05 Ascot: £1.50 each-way on Eagleway at 40-1 with Sky Bet (eight places). Betfair and Paddy Power go 50-1 (six places)

5.15 Ford Madox Brown: £3 win at 20-1 with bet365

2.25 Haydock: Party Business

3.00 Haydock: Anna Bunina

4.05 Ascot: Fresh

5.15 Ascot: Ford Madox Brown