How To Bet £20 on Saturday: 25-1 Warrior can surprise in Irish Derby

A betting rule that I try to stick to is not to punt on races where I end up putting rings around the names of multiple horses.

That is the case for me in the Stobart Rail & Civils Northumberland Plate on Saturday, where a short list rapidly turned into a long list.

You can make a case for plenty and, reluctantly, I am going to sit it out even though Nakeeta (25-1), Sir Chauvelin (20-1) and Arch Villain (50-1) look overpriced.

There were less rings and scribbling involved with the below.

12.55 Newcastle - Kimberella at 9-2 with Bet365 and Sky Bet:

Kimberella was desperately unlucky not to land the Chipchase Stakes last year - when beaten a head and a neck after having to wait for a run - and looks poised to make another bold bid.

The eight-year-old does seem particularly effective on the all-weather and his close third to City Light at Lingfield in late March now looks a lot better than it did at the time. That rival was touched off in the Diamond Jubilee on Saturday and the second, Kachy, won impressively at Chester and then ran Battaash to third place before struggling at Royal Ascot.

He is officially the best horse in the line-up in terms of ratings and his latest effort, when pipped by Sir Dancealot at Hamilton, confirms he is in fine heart.

1.10 Newmarket - Royal Intervention at a general 8-1:

Ed Walker has his team in fine form and Royal Intervention shaped beautifully on her debut at Lingfield when travelling strongly but was collared close home by the more experienced and more strongly-ridden Octave in the final strides.

The time was creditable and there is substance to the form as the pair pulled three lengths clear of Gypsy Spirit, who had previously won on her debut as Windsor and has since finished a close third in the Hilary Needler at Beverley.

Meanwhile, Octave has subsequently finished runner-up at Newmarket - when having the misfortune to bump into subsequent Coventry winner Calyx - when burdened with a penalty.

1.30 Newcastle: Euchen Glen at 10-1 with BetVictor and Coral:

The exuberant Euchen Glen is able to run off a mark 1lb lower than when winning in emphatic style at Ayr last week and before that had run a remarkable race when a close third to The Grand Visir at Haydock - only buckling late on despite pulling pretty much for the first mile and a half.

I fancy this more speed-orientated track will suit Euchen Glen much better than the progressive The Grand Visir, who looks all stamina and is 4lb worse off, and he can turn the tables.

Euchen Glen has suffered two heavy defeats at Newcastle in the past (hence his lower mark on the all-weather) but he’s a different horse now and in any case there were mitigating circumstances.

On the first occasion he was returning from an absence and looked in need of the run and on the second he was lit up by a first-time hood, which he has never worn since.

4.40 Newmarket - Dynamic at a general 9-4:

This is competitive despite having only six runners because Considered Opinion and Cosmopolitan Queen were tidy winners last time, while Queen Of Time is surely better than her last run indicates.

However, it will still be disappointing if Dynamic does not make it four wins from seven starts.

William Haggas’s imposing filly looked in need of her reappearance run at Ascot but made no mistake at Musselburgh next time, when equipped with a first-time tongue tie, and looks the type who will keep improving.

She is up to a mark of 91 but her entry in a Group Two race at the Curragh next month indicates that connections have not given up hope of her developing into something much better.

5.15 Curragh - Platinum Warrior at a general 25-1:

Most view the Irish Derby as a match between Saxon Warrior and Dee Ex Bee but there may be value looking beyond the pair.

Platinum Warrior is jumping in class but the grey Galileo colt showed he was still on the up when beating Latrobe in good style in Group Three company over ten furlongs at the Curragh last time and looks like he will relish stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time.

On his previous start he had caught the eye when a close fourth behind Hazapour at Leopardstown, over that horse’s optimum trip of ten furlongs, and that suggests Platinum Warrior has a better chance than the market suggests.

After all, Hazapour traded at 2-1 in-running on Betfair in the Derby before his stamina gave out.

Andy Stephens' How To Bet £20 on Saturday:

OPTION ONE:

12.55 Newcastle: Kimberella £4.50 win at at a general 9-2

1.10 Newmarket: Royal Intervention £3.50 win at a general 8-1

1.30 Newcastle: Euchen Glen £2.50 each-way at 10-1 with BetVictor and William Hill

4.40 Newmarket: Dynamic £3 win at a general 9-4

5.15 Curragh: Platinum Warrior £2 each-way at a general 25-1

OPTION TWO:

Five horses above in ten 50p win doubles; ten 40p each-way trebles; five 50p each-way fourfolds and a £1 each-way fivefold.