Bay Bridge looked a bit special when winning on his return at Sandown last month but whether he warrants being a general 5-4 for the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot on Wednesday is another matter.
He’s up against better opposition and is unproven on faster ground, plus a messy renewal is on the cards with none of the five runners being obvious front-runners. A muddling gallop seems likely and that is hardly going to suit a colt who looks more than capable of moving up in distance.
I’m more inclined to back the Japanese Derby winner, Shahryar, who generally races handily and we know will bounce off the fast terrain
His Sheema Classic win at Meydan in March is the strongest bit of form on offer with also-rans Alenquer and Hukum already subsequently landing Group One contests. He may be best equipped to deal with a tactical battle and, at 100-30, is a much bigger price than the favourite.
The big betting race of the day is the Royal Hunt Cup and it carries a wealth warning for punters as only one favourite has obliged in the past 25 years. During the same period, 13 winners have gone in at 16-1 or bigger.
This year’s renewal is as difficult as ever but Sky Bet are offering eight places and that’s just enough to tempt me to split my stakes on Hortzadar, quoted at 40-1 by them, and Intellogent, who they make 16-1. If you are happy with six places, then you can get 66-1 on the former, and as big as 28-1 on the latter, but on this occasion I prefer the bigger safety net.
The pair bumped into each other in a mile handicap at Newmarket’s Craven meeting when Intellogent found trouble and was unfortunate not to win, when having his first start for Jane Chapple-Hyam, and Hortzadar was a close fourth after having to switch wide to challenge.
Intellogent has since run well in a small-field Listed event at Ascot that didn’t get to the bottom of him and it’s clear that the seven-year-old, a Group One winner in France in his younger days, retains plenty of ability.
Hortzadar has subsequently run a couple of dull races but he’s the sort to bounce back quickly and my mind drifts to his run in last year’s Hunt Cup when he travelled sweetly but got no sort of run on what turned out to be the wrong part of the track. I also like the fact that the promising apprentice Mark Winn takes 7lb off his back.
Hortzadar and Intellogent are drawn on opposite sides, so hopefully I’ll still have some kind of interest as the 30 runners motor towards the final furlong.
Chapple-Hyam’s Saffron Beach makes most appeal in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes, despite her penalty, but that’s reflected by her position in the market and so I’m happy to let her slide.
The opening Queen Mary Stakes features 11 unbeaten young fillies but I’m surprised Wesley Ward’s American raider Love Reigns is as big as 100-30.
Ward has been represented in this race on 11 occasions since 2009, winning it four times and fielding the runner-up on four more occasions.
You cannot ignore stats like that and Love Reigns, a daughter of July Cup winner US Navy Flag, looked something out of the ordinary when winning by almost ten lengths on her debut at Keeneland in April.
I’ve no idea what she beat that day but the clock rarely lies and her winning time, despite being eased, was the fastest since Keeneland juvenile races at 5 1/2 furlongs began in 2018. That includes the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, won by her rapid stablemate Golden Pal, and plenty of stakes races in the intervening four years.
She’s going to take plenty of catching on the far side, with Britain’s main hope, Dramatised, drawn on the opposite flank.
Similarly, Little Big Bear is going to take plenty of stopping in the Windsor Castle Stakes. He confirmed the promise of his Curragh debut when easily going one better at Naas and the stiff 5f at Ascot should play to his strengths given all the stamina in his pedigree.
He wouldn’t have been out of place in the Norfolk Stakes but Aidan O’Brien has plenty of juvenile talent at his disposal and is able to give him an easier assignment.
Finally, the Ralph Beckett-trained State Occasion looks chunky at 14-1 in the closing Kensington Palace Stakes.
She ran well in each of her four races last year without getting the rub of the green on occasions, including at Ascot in September, and also just missed out on her return at Chelmsford – only to be awarded the spoils in the stewards’ room.
A 5lb rise heightens her task but she’s got an even bigger performance in her. I’m sure she will be ridden forward from her low draw and that should serve her well in a race where plenty of the runners are usually held up.
How To Bet £20 on day two of Royal Ascot 2022
OPTON ONE
2.30 Love Reigns £3 win at 100-30 with Unibet
3.40 Shahryar £3 win at a general 100-30
5.00 Hortzadar £2 each-way at 40-1 with Sky Bet (who offer eight places)
5.00 Intellogent £1 each-way at 16-1 with Sky Bet (who offer eight places)
5.35 Little Big Bear £2 win at a general 5-2
6.10 State Occasion £2 win and £2 each-way at a general 14-1 (five places)
OPTION TWO
£1 Win Patent
2.30 Love Reigns
5.35 Little Big Bear
6.10 State Occasion
£1 Win Yankee and £1 each-way fourfold, above trio plus
3.40 Shahryar
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