How To Bet £20 at Cheltenham on Saturday: head for Hills

How To Bet £20 at Cheltenham on Saturday: head for the Hills

By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Sat 14 Dec 2024
Il Ridoto looks a good bet, at a general 10-1, to complete the Paddy Power Gold Cup/December Gold Cup double at Cheltenham on Saturday. 
Only three horses have previously won both races in the same season, but Il Ridoto was better than ever when thumping the opposition last month and, unlike many of those who have failed before him, we know he is at least as equally effective on the New Course. 
The ground is going to be similar and Olive Nicholls takes what could be a crucial 7lb off his back with the unfortunate Freddie Gingell on the sidelines. Two of Paul Nicholls’ previous winners of this race – Poquelin in 2010 and Unioniste in 2012 – were also ridden by conditionals. 
Nicholls Jr has riden five winners from 20 rides over fences (runner-up on five more) and gave a timely reminder of her talents when winning on Him Malaya for the yard at Taunton on Thursday. 
Il Ridoto must cope with an 8lb higher mark, but he was in command a long way out in the Paddy Power after a typically fluent round of jumping (the RaceiQ data reveals he gained almost 13 lengths in the air) and he would have beaten Ga Law by a greater margin than 4½ lengths had he not idled/wandered in the closing stages. 
In terms of his rating, he’s 6lb higher - minus that 7lb claim - than when caught in the closing stages of last year’s December Gold Cup. He surely would have won that day had he not got sucked into a pace duel with Frero Banbou. 
The pair of them compromised the chance of each other – reflected by their finishing speed percentages - and opened the door for Fugitif to come from a long way back and take the spoils. The title holder will again have to be repelled, but Il Ridoto looks the more straightforward and his accurate jumping is a huge asset. Away from soft ground, he and his young rider are going to take plenty of stopping. 
I’m also going to have a small saver on Ga Law, who chased him home in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and gets a 7lb pull. He’s also proven on this stiffer track and, if successful, would be the sixth horse since 2009 to make the frame in the Paddy Power before taking this prize. 

Make time for his 11-1 chance

The main supporting race on the card is the Grade Two Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle over 3m, in which Skyjack Hijack will seek to extend his winning sequence to seven. 
This likeable front-runner has been on a roll since being beaten off a mark of 96 at Cartmel in July but his busy spell is surely going to catch up with him at some stage (this will be his tenth race since June) and his connections had been inclined to give him a break after his latest win at Newcastle a couple of weeks ago, only to have a change of heart. 
I’m going to take him on with Aboutdamntime, who upstaged a pair who had shone in bumpers when scoring on his hurdling bow at Carlisle last month. The well-beaten third, Dedicated Hero, has since boosted the form with an easy success at Kelso. 
Aboutdamntime had also shaped well when chasing home Clondaw General in a point-to-point in late January. He was the shorter of the pair in the betting, but the winner was ridden more forward and got first run on him. 
They meet again, with Clondaw General much shorter in the market after winning on his Rules debut at Worcester. However, his jumping was not without blemish that day and Aboutdamntime achieved as much, if not more, at Carlisle. At a general 11-1, he looks the way to go. 

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The future's bright . . . 

It was tempting to tick off Peaky Boy in the Josh Wyke Birthday Novices' Limited Handicap Chase because his past three wins have all been achieved at Cheltenham and he is open to plenty more improvement now that he is stepped up to 3m. 
He is much the most likely winner, but I can’t resist an each-way play on the Irish raider, Moon D’Orange, who is chalked up at a general 25-1. 
This six-year-old, trained by John McConnell,was a solid third behind Shanagh Bob and Destroytheevidence in the graded hurdle at this meeting 12 months ago. 
He finished 2¾ lengths behind the latter but meets that rival, chalked up at a best price of 7-1, on 9lb better terms and looks all over the type to make a better chaser. 
Moon D’Orange duly shaped well on his debut over fences, when third behind Fascile Mode and Touch Me Not over an inadequate 2m at Punchestown, and he wasn’t disgraced when third behind Hyland and Transmission in a 3m novice chase here in late October, especially as loads of fences were missed out because of low sun. The first two both won at The November Meeting. 
A mark of 128 for his handicap debut over fences looks manageable and he’s re-equipped with the cheekpieces he first wore 12 months ago, having had them left off for his first two runs this campaign. 

Head for the Hills

Smart Flat performer Lavender Hill Mob has been put in favourite for the JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle but he looked anything but a natural when turned over at 2-7 on his hurdling bow in a four-runner contest at Newcastle late last month and is now swiftly equipped with first-time headgear. That rings alarm bells. 
The one who looks underestimated in the market, at 14-1 with bet365 is Quantock Hills, who showed ability in two starts in France and has made an encouraging start in Britain for Warren Greatrex. 
Quantock Hills was a convincing winner at Fontwell last time, having previously made a gallant effort to concede 14lb to Opec at Wetherby. The winner won again next time before landing a Listed prize at Newbury last time. 
Plenty of juvenile hurdlers struggle to properly stay 2m but we know this stamina-bred gelding will get every yard. In addition, he has more experience than most of his rivals and has shown himself to be a proficient jumper, gaining a score of 7.5 from RaceiQ in both his British races. By contrast, Lavender Hill Mob only managed a mark of 5.1, while Navan winner Total Look (5.4) was not much better.
A 14/1 Selection For The Opening Race At Cheltenham

Molto Bene's each-way claims

Finally, Molto Bene rates an each-way play, at a general 14-1, in the closing BetMGM Mares' Handicap Hurdle. 
Charlie Longsdon’s five-year-old looked an improved performer when landing a 17-runner handicap hurdle at Chepstow on her return last month. 
She fended off a well-backed hat-trick seeker that day, who was getting 17lb, with the third home also a racefit last-time-out winner. 
A wind op since the end of last season has clearly done Molto Bene no harm and if she can jump as fluently as she did on her comeback – the RaceiQ metrics show she gained nine lengths with her leaping – then an 8lb rise may not be enough to stop her following up. 
The obvious danger is the lightly raced Joyeuse, whose aunties include Champion Hurdle Epatante. She looks to have got in lightly with a mark of 119, although she’s clearly not been the easiest to train and does have stamina to prove. 

How To Bet £20 at Cheltenham on Saturday

OPTION ONE
12.10 Cheltenham: Quantock Hills £1 win and £1.50 each-way at 14-1 with bet365
12.40 Cheltenham: Moon D’Orange £2 each-way at a general 25-1 
1.50  Cheltenham: Il Ridoto £4 win at 10-1 with bet365 and William Hill
1.50  Cheltenham: Ga Law £1 win at a general 7-1 
3.00 Cheltenham: Aboutdamntime £3 win at a general 11-1 
3.35 Cheltenham: Molto Bene £2 each-way at 14-1 with BetVictor 
Paddy Power Gold Cup: Andy Stephens Gives His Verdict
OPTION TWO
38p each-way plus 12p each-way accumulator on the five below (prices in brackers as a guide)
12.10 Cheltenham: Quantock Hills (14-1)
12.40 Cheltenham: Moon D’Orange (25-1)
1.50  Cheltenham: Il Ridoto (10-1)
3.00 Cheltenham: Aboutdamntime (11-1)
3.35 Cheltenham: Molto Bene (14-1)

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