How To Bet £20 at Cheltenham on Gold Cup Day

It generally pays to expect the unexpected in Jump racing but this week at Cheltenham has been on another level and it is going to take until Royal Ascot to process everything that has happened.

Those who feared the meeting would be a long procession of short-priced winners now know very different after the defeats of Marjborough, Constitution Hill, Final Demand, Ballyburn, Jonbon and Teahupoo. And now, on the final day of the meeting, the baton passes to Galopin Des Champs.

On paper, this outstanding racehorse looks almost a certainty to join an elite band to have won at least three editions of the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup but in addition to eight rivals, he will also have to negotiate 22 fences, drying ground and possibly a standing start if a rash of shambolic false starts continue.

A resolution must be found here because there seems to have been no consistency this week and too many horses/jockeys - and those placing bets - are being compromised.

Galopin Des Champs is a general 8-15 to complete his hat-trick and he would be a lot shorter if you knew he was going to avoid any banana skins because he looks a good thing on form.

The one horse among the opposition he has not met (and beaten) before is Banbridge and he has a big stamina question to answer, for all he was strong at the finish when landing the King George over Christmas. Three miles on flat terrain at Kempton is very different to an extended three-and-a-quarter miles around Cheltenham, as greats such as Wayward Lad and One Man have found out in the past.

Bookmakers have formed a second market that excludes Galopin Des Champs, with Monty's Star making appeal at the 5-1 offered by William Hill. Last year’s Brown Advisory runner-up is developing a reputation for being a “nearly horse” but I fancy that we have not seen the best of him this season and that he will relish the stiffest test  that he has encountered.

Two-time Gold Cup-winning trainer Henry De Bromhead has been working backwards to this day for a long while and his horses have been running all week, with Bob Olinger and Air Of Entitlement hitting the back of the net on Thursday.

Willie Mullins, the trainer of Galopin Des Champs, runs 11 in the opening JCB Triumph Hurdle – and 28 on the whole day – and will hold the key to many putting strategies.

He has the short-priced favourites in the two big handicap hurdles of the day in the shape of Kargese, who tackles the William Hill County Handicap Hurdle, and French recruit Kopeck De Mee, who will line up in the closing Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle, having seemingly been ante-post favourite for every other race at the meeting.

I can see the case for both being well ahead of the handicapper, but the pair are priced up defensively and, as we’ve seen in the past with such as Gaelic Warrior (got beaten off 128), it’s one thing being well-handicapped but quite another getting the job done.

My two against the field in the County Hurdle are Lark In The Mornin, quoted at 5-1 by bet365, and Hansard, a general 16-1 chance.

Lark In The Mornin is 8lb higher than when landing the Fred Winter last year but that is offset by the better ground, as deep conditions were definitely not in his favour 12 months ago.

He looks to have been laid out for this by Joseph O’Brien and his comeback run at Leopardstown, when keeping on from rear under tender handling, was eye-catching to say the least. The sectionals reveal he was second fastest through the final half mile that day without being given anything like a hard time.

Hansard has evidently had a few issues since being smart novice a couple of seasons ago, but he’s hinted on several occasions he has a big handicap like this in him.

His connections are probably kicking themselves for not having him in the Champion Hurdle – he was not far behind Golden Ace and Burdett Road in the Kingwell Hurdle last time – but this would be a consolation. First-time cheekpieces may also help a horse who travels strongly but can flatter to deceive.

Nurse Susan, dismissed as a 33-1 chance, will be carrying my cash in the closing Martin Pipe.

She was an excellent fourth to Love Envoi in the mares’ novices hurdle three years ago and that form has a glow. The winner gave Honeysuckle a scare in the Mares’ Hurdle 12 months later, while the runner-up, Ahorsewithnoname, subsequently won at Royal Ascot off a lofty mark of 96. And the also-rans that day included such as Impervious and Dinoblue.

Nurse Susan was then absent for 20 months before making an abortive chasing debut and being returned to hurdling, which resulted in handicap wins back at Cheltenham and Lingfield.

Those victories have been followed by another 13-month absence and, clearly, she’s not been easy to train. However, I cannot believe that Skelton would pitch her back into a race such as this if she was not pleasing him at home. And don’t forget that he and owner Colm Donlon have some unfinished business in the race, with Langer Dan thwarted by Galopin Des Champs in 2021. 

I’ll also be having a saver on No Ordinary Joe, who had the misfortune to bump into Iroko in this race two years ago (now 1lb lower) and ran well for a long way in last year’s race when his stable was under a cloud. His latest run at Warwick should have put him spot-on and Freddie Gingell rides. 

The St James's Place market is dominated by Irish-trained runners but What A Glance, available at 40-1, and Fairly Famous, quoted at 20-1, give the home team at least two live candidates.

I can't fathom why What A Glance is such a big price because his form in May of last year, which included an impressive success at Cheltenham, reads well. The handicapper certainly takes that opinion because he has him on an official rating of 140, which puts him firmly in the mix.

He has limbered up with two defeats in point-to-point races, which is a negative, but I'm hoping they were merely building blocks and that he will be back to his best for the day that matters.

Fairly Famous is 2/2 at the track, stays well and will have the excellent Gina Andrews on his back. 

He finished behind What A Glance in this season's Horse And Hound Cup at Stratford but this track probably suits him better.

You can watch my cases for my other tips here: 

2.00 Lark In The Mornin £2 win at 5-1with bet365 

2.00 Hansard £1 each-way at a general 16-1 

3.20 Jet Blue £2 win at a general 8-1 

3.20 Flicker Of Hope £1 each-way at a general 16-1 

4.00  Galopin Des Champs to beat Monty's Star - £2 Exacta

4.40 Fairly Famous £1 each-way at 20-1 

4.40 What A Glance £1.50 each-way at 40-1 

5.20 No Ordinary Joe £1 each-way at a general 9-1 

5.20 Nurse Susan £1.50 each-way at a general 33-1

£1.60 Win Yankee

1.20 East India Dock

2.00 Lark In The Mornin

3.20 Jet Blue

4.00 Galopin Des Champs

£2.40 Gold Cup Exacta:  Galopin Des Champs to beat Montys Star